Poker Stars, $14.69 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
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Suite. View Hand #13031501
Hero (SB): 500 (25 bb)
BB: 500 (25 bb)
: Hero is SB with 3
Hero raises to 40
, BB raises to 80
, Hero raises to 500 and is all-in
, BB calls 420 and is all-in
: (1,000) 8
6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
: (1,000) K (2 players, 2 are all-in)
: (1,000) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Hey guys! I've been shoving small PPs over min 3bets readless at 25 bb but I havent been in that situation that often and from my small experience I havent gotten barely any folds.
Let us say 22 vs a 4b calling range of 88+,ATs+,ATo+,KJs+,QJs+,KQo
Please tell me if this is a ridiculous range for min3b/call 4b readless.
22 has ~40% equity.
From this calculation (I ignore expected value from calling):
If we want EV(shove) > EV(fold) = 0
where x is % of folds from opponent.
EV(Shove) = EV(Fold from opp) + EV(If called)
EV(Shove) = (pot after min3b)*x + (calling frequency)*(EV from losing + EV from winning)
EV(Shove) = 120x + (1-x)*(0.6(-460)+0.4(540))
EV(Shove) = 180x - 60
180x - 60 > 0 => x = ~33%
Unless I messed up the calculations we need villain to fold 33% of the time for a shove to be profitable and i'm really not convinced this is the case. Thoughts?