Villain is a break even reg at $30's and seems to play solidly but not very creative he has a >1% ROI% over 1000+ games. So I wasn't worried to getting check/raised bluff on the river by him ever. I wasn't sure whether or not to go for value since I think a large% of his range would be Ad + pair or possibly a slow played flopped flush since I am barrel happy in some spots and I think he knows this. His 3bet% is pretty low so I think AQo might be a flat for him given stack sizes but not sure.

Do you think we should go for value here or not since our perceived range if he has Jx would be a lot of Adx hands or AJ+ here so I didn't think we would get called by worse, only better. What are your opinions on this?

FWIW I'm not being results orientated here that he had a better hand but thought it was genuinely a really close spot at the time of play to bet or not.

It's a common tendency for uncreative/solid regs to pretty much play their hands for what their worth, which makes it incredibly likely he would have cr'd flop with a flush even a small one.

Bearing that in mind the only hands your conceivably losing to imo are Ad3x A6 and A7.

(I'm pretty sure the majority of regs/even tight ones 3bet AJo, even at this stack depth!)


There's definitely enough weaker hands in his range here to warrant making a value bet.
I think you have the best hand here pretty close to 100% of the time, if you think your ahead of somebody's range on the river you shouldn't NOT value bet because the river hits your perceived range and you think that means he won't call you off with second pair. (people,even ''solid regs'' do.)

How many hands had you played against him up until this point?

Looks like a value bet to me without any other reads

i'm betting this river all day !

Every f*ckin day!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS0eBrV7Ssw&t=1

You guys all seem sure it is a vb but imo it is really close...
I think I would bet really small. Something between 150 and 250 on the river. On the river his range is imo Jx, 7x(A7, K7, maybe Q7), 6x (A6, K6), Adx, Kdx. There is not much in his range that calls a river bet and loses to our J6 here : Jx prob call, K7, Q7 and K6 prob folds. All the rest is either a fold or a call (then we are beat)
That's why I think it is either a small vb (to keep 3rd or 4th pair in his calling range) or a check back.

I'd bet ~210. Definitely bet, you'll miss out on a lot of value long term by not betting these kind of hands.

easy bet/fold

We'd played one game before which lasted about 50 hands. That makes sense - I normally vbet this all day too but it just cropped into my mind that in a vacuum I would never pay this off analysing the hand with anything less than J6, and had 3 tables up so just quickly checked behind. So wanted to either be confirmed that it's a close spot or that I should be value betting all day here which I agree too, that people play less than perfect and will pay off with Jx, random worse two pairs, random Ax that wanted to see the river.

There isn't ton of hands you get value from esp if you bet into 540 pot
i would like to know from what we get value on river?

O misread you had 2 pairs def bet/fold

a TON of Jx, 7x, and random pair+diamond hands are gonna call you off on this river. really easy bet

Value betting all day long.

Value betting 88 here.

88?:/

huh? What do you value bet if you check back here?? Only question is sizing.

Hopefully villain is capable of knowing that heros range has a lot of bare FD hands in it that are barreling(but not nessesarilly all Ax, and that his range looks like a lot of weak pair+FD hands in it. If he is capable of thinking on this level then checking back river would be atrocious.
If I am in villains shoes vs any decent reg I call three barrels here a lot with 7x. (obv Jx as well but I never c/c that). Given that I call light here in Villains spot I think it would be a crime to not value bet as hero.

If he thinks we are very barrel happy Im just going to snap bomb river like 480 or something similarly rediculous. Otherwise if we dont have a agro dynamic really going yet I might bet 280.