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Old 09-03-2012, 09:26 PM   #1
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$15 what to do on the flop

Only interesting hand so far:
- he raises
- I call with 88
- flop 738s
- I check, he bets I reraise he folds

5th hand

Poker Stars $14.39+$0.61 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): t1660 83 BBs
BB: t1340 67 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with Q K
Hero raises to t50, BB raises to t160, Hero calls t110

Flop: (t320) J 9 8 (2 players)
BB bets t200, Hero ???
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Old 09-03-2012, 10:05 PM   #2
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

jam - unless he caught w/ a dominated hand you've got ten outs twice if you arent ahead to begin with. too much equity to give up now imo.
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Old 09-03-2012, 11:26 PM   #3
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

35% equity isnt that much, surely fold is an option
in many cases youre drawing to gutshot only, and hes cbeting quite big
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Old 09-04-2012, 12:47 AM   #4
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

call flop and revalue turn, u still has around 1300 chip
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Old 09-04-2012, 02:27 AM   #5
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

Grunch.

This is kind of a weird spot. IMO the bet sizing from villain doesn't look like a strong hand (TP, 2pr, set, even T7) as I'd expect them to be betting more like 270-320.

Alternately, the betting is a bit large for nuts, not to mention that nutted hands are unlikely (combinatorics, our blockers).

The betting looks rational for a semibluff but again, blockers.

Maybe villain is the sort to make a bet for value but doesn't want to commit themselves too much with so many bad cards OTT?

Plus, if we call and hit, are we getting any more money in the pot when we're ahead?

My vote is a fold.
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Old 09-04-2012, 03:16 AM   #6
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

Quite a ****ed up spot, you're too deep (imo) to raise here and get it in profitably, calling is an option but I'm not sure about your implied odds (only the ten is a clear out, and im not sure about your implied odds when a ten hits)

if villain cbets a lot but shuts down on turns i think calling is perfectly fine, without reads i might as well pitch. but i think its close.

@quux: if you think villain has worse than TP, how are we folding this?
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Old 09-04-2012, 12:49 PM   #7
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barbra Streisand View Post
@quux: if you think villain has worse than TP, how are we folding this?
My apologies, did not mean to infer I thought villain had worse than TP. TBH I can't put Villain on a range here at all. I'm stumped.

I think this flop is all over a standard, no-bluffs 3b flatting range so I don't think we have immediate odds to call and with any card that gives us a hand, not much of that range is calling, so implied isn't there.
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Old 09-05-2012, 10:13 AM   #8
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

fold flop.
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:46 PM   #9
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

call and reevaluate turn.
Hitting one of our outs isn't the only way to win the pot, if villain check OTT on a board like this he is fos most of the time so we can bet turn + bet river and win the pot.
my0.02
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:42 PM   #10
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

What you gonna do if your Q or K hits on the turn and he jams it?
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:54 PM   #11
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

puke
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Old 09-05-2012, 07:56 PM   #12
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

id fold and take some notes, we can hit the nuts with a 10 (which will kill the action unless he has a q), but any Q gives us another awkward position, and the K is kinda meh.

fold>shove>call



pretty sick spot

Last edited by destroyer1212; 09-05-2012 at 08:03 PM.
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Old 09-05-2012, 08:00 PM   #13
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Re: $15 what to do on the flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by quux View Post
Grunch.

This is kind of a weird spot. IMO the bet sizing from villain doesn't look like a strong hand (TP, 2pr, set, even T7) as I'd expect them to be betting more like 270-320.

Alternately, the betting is a bit large for nuts, not to mention that nutted hands are unlikely
(combinatorics, our blockers).

The betting looks rational for a semibluff but again, blockers.

Maybe villain is the sort to make a bet for value but doesn't want to commit themselves too much with so many bad cards OTT?

Plus, if we call and hit, are we getting any more money in the pot when we're ahead?

My vote is a fold.
why would you expect those hands to bet more? to "protect" (i know is not the term but cant remember the right one value maybe?) the hand since the board is so wet?

dont you think nut hands would go with this kinda sizing since many cards kill the action for them?
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