Villain is a smart guy , winning reg at this level according to SS, played 2 games with him , the first one I won out of having good cards , this hand is from the second one.
He is TAG , does not bet big unless he has a nutty hand , and (more important for this hand) he does not play top pair so fast even on a wet board ,he attack limps/weakness.
Please give me advice on this hand.
I figured he did not have top pair (my reads) , he probably played a flush draw for the fold equity, so the plan on turn was to shove any non spade river.
im folding the turn, dont expect villain to have a stonecold bluff here and on this turn most of his semi-bluffs seem to connect one way or another. youre not having enough equity with a mere gutshot and weak pair.
also i dont like your inducing minbet on this flop, simply because of the fact that almost his entire range that will c/r here (and thus fall for your inducing minbet) has more equity than you
I think if we are going to call the flop raise than we need to call the 5 clubs on the turn. I also fold pre and call the riv as 6x has the straight and the 420 looks like a value bet.
I was going to say his c/r range is more weighted to a fd than a straight draw, so I'm a lot more worried about a spade on the turn than a 5. I see what you mean though by the 30 flop bet inducing his entire range to c/r, so its just as likely he's doing this with his straight draws.
On flop bet half pot, a minbet can induce raises from many sort of hands and it is not really a strong enough hand to be facing a raise with. Then call raise according to his sizing. Are your reads really that strong that you can assume that he would not raise with top pair on this type of board when you are minbetting? It seems like something a smart guy would do
On turn I would fold to his big bet, he could have some sort of straight draw on flop and hitting his 5 making a better pair than yours. Or just top pair.
On river I wouldn't raise, simply because there is four to a straight and i would not expect a lot of times to be called by something worse or fold out something better.
Why most suggest to fold pre? op didn't say anything on his bb %.
exactly, so readless vs a reg I think it's fine to fold 74o pre, I prefer a 60 flop bet because we can barrel and we more easily know where we are in the hand, I doubt he would have C/r'd us if we bet 60, given your reads of him attacking weakness
Villian's play here is not TAG it's LAG. Have you mis-classified him? Did he adjust? Serious cause for concern, can't win if we misclassify a LAG as a TAG.
Preflop raise is fine vs TAG. Folding is also fine. I don't expect TAG to call raise OOP with 73s. TAG reg I expect to call 1/2 pot with 40% underneath top 10% 3bet.
Flop cbet is weird size. Why? How often do you do this underbet cbet thing? Anyway, normal is 1/2 pot. Board is wet so maybe 2/3 pot.
Calling c/r is marginal vs TAG. FD, top pair, flush draw, flush draw + pair, set are all possible. TAG doesn't hit two pair on this board much. I don't think you have good equity his against range.
Really hate turn call vs TAG. You have 3rd pair with 7 outs (can't count 6s 7s). Meh. When you improve, he'll dump missed draws a good chunk of time, so implied odds suffer.
River jam is also tough, given that he's a TAG who's shown so much strength.