Just flat flop raise. If you had OESD with an overcard then you can go for the x/r, just not enough value for x/r imho.
Why is Tx never folding? I can see x=rag folding, maybe not good x. but even good x will fold to a barrel, which I presume you will be doing on most turns. on this turn, of course we see a terrible card so barreling is out of the question.
I actually think we should c/r jam flop. We have enough pot equity vs likely calling ranges and we fold out a ton of hands given that readless I think villian will be cbetting a lot of hands here and folding to the jam with less than Qx and combo draw Tx.
C/r nonallin is fine too since we can barrel turns (not this one), it will be close in expectation but based on my calcs c/r jam should be a touch better just because we definitely fold out a good bit more of villains range than c/r nonallin even factoring in turn barrling. It's definitely close though.
C/call seems bad since we have such an awesome c/r opportunity with one of the nut best hands to semibluff on a board where we'll have great fold equity. But it's obviously a bit hard to quantify this, we do get some implied odds from flatting and most villains don't barrel too much so we'll likely get a free river a good percent of the time. I just think we miss out on fold equity and there are a lot of hands we're happy folding out on this flop.
I see your point about fold equity. A x/r jam folds out a ton, that's maybe better than x/c, but yeah we likely get to see all 5 cards with x/c. Close, but there does seem to be a lot of fold equity in x/r jam.
I'm wondering if you can expect a random villain to bet 50 into 80 with air here, so I don't know if check/raising allin or non-allin on this board is still as good as check/raising over a half pot cbet.
Might seem like an insignificant difference, but I think it matters quite a lot.
Two Plus Two
J
(2 players)
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