Quote:
Originally Posted by AggsyB
We are calling because we have the correct odds with the equity we have vs his range which happens to have more combos of fd's than it does of Ax so in that sense yes it means hes weighted to air (assuming he always bets his busted draws, which readless in this situation I think is a fair assumption to make).
The 1/4 bet seems unlikely but I have seen it plenty of times vs fish especially considering this is my main game, I have no real need to make this information up and just because I said it can happen doesnt mean I think its happening with any drastic frequency.
Uhh, no.
For example, if he has 60% Ax and 40% FD and pots on the river, we still have to call because we are getting more than the correct odds. But that doesn't mean he has more FD than value hands. I mean, this is a simple math problem, right? We never, ever need more than 50% to be correct when bluff catching, even if villain overbets the river by 200x. And in this particular hand, I just don't think his busted draws
far outnumber his Ax+. But yes, we can still make a call.
And if the 1/4 bet doesn't happen all that often, which you seem to be agreeing on, then it is possible that we can be more profitable by just betting the river and getting called by hands that he might happily check back. Of course, all this depends on what his range consists of on the river.
Oh, and I wasn't implying that you were making this info up or anything close to it, I apologise it if you perceived it that way.