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Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos Discussion of heads up Sit & Go and Spin and Go poker games. Sponsored by HUSNG.com, the leading heads up poker video site.

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Old 10-03-2014, 04:31 AM   #201
coon74
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

There are not only people of HUSnG origin playing these - players are switching over from other games, 6-max hypers in particular, due to the 'follow the fish' principle.

It's not that necessary to be a HUSnG guru to beat the Spingo* format, at least thus far, while the fish is abundant.

If you meant that HUSnG regs are more likely to complain because their lobbies and divisions are getting ruined... well, take my condolences and follow the fish too.

* Credit for the jocular term, likening the game to Bingo, goes to VorpalF2F from another forum.
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Old 10-03-2014, 04:43 AM   #202
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Some of you wealthy players should make a new poker site!
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Old 10-03-2014, 04:48 AM   #203
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

You see, far not all good poker players are also good at doing business. Starting a new really successful poker site requires jumping through a lot of hoops, from regulatory barriers to powerful rivals.

It's easier so far to continue earning money by playing at existing poker sites - at home and probably in underwear or even naked
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Old 10-03-2014, 05:05 AM   #204
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepak View Post
is it my impression or the ppl saying this is fine/okay are the ppl whom i've never seen on husng forums? ...and most likely play a very small number of husng to begin with
+1. Anybody who thinks that Spin&Go's will be the new hypers have simply no understanding how poker / being professional poker player works. Even with reduced rake a good avg ROI would probably be around 3% (esp with battlenet style lobbies). However the standard deviation of the profit will be simply huge. Basicly Spin&Go's will be MTTs with 3% avg ROI.

Last edited by jayn; 10-03-2014 at 05:16 AM.
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Old 10-03-2014, 05:19 AM   #205
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

as long as these lobbies are filled with fish i think you can easily get 10%+ roi
dont know how you came up with 3%
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Old 10-03-2014, 05:42 AM   #206
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
If you meant that HUSnG regs are more likely to complain because their lobbies and divisions are getting ruined... well, take my condolences and follow the fish too.
A lot of the appeal of poker, especially for regs, is that it is a game where you can make money by being better than the competition. So it's frustrating for regs when a format is introduced that is promoted and is seemingly going to be very popular, drawing a large amount of recreational players with it, where being better than the competition is not enough, you also need to be lucky.
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Old 10-03-2014, 05:53 AM   #207
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuTchMen View Post
as long as these lobbies are filled with fish i think you can easily get 10%+ roi
dont know how you came up with 3%
Really? I think a 3%+ roi isn't going to be achieved by the top 5% players in this format over a large sample whether there are fish at the table or not. The top 1% will have higher ROIs because they got lucky (they ran hot in the bigger payouts). You can't table select and having agro fish at the table in this format isn't fishy enough.
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Old 10-03-2014, 05:56 AM   #208
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

307th - I know its still early days but have you seen a noticeable reduction in traffic @ 60s/100s?
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Old 10-03-2014, 06:01 AM   #209
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

On the other hand, being better than all or most of the regs is not necessary

I mean, I'd get slaughtered by any typical $60 SnG lineup / division, but here, there are so many recreational opponents that I can squeeze out 35% ITM, which is enough to slightly profit after rewards, better than nothing. Crushers will have 37%+, well-deserved.

Of course 'the long run' here is way longer than in traditional SnGs; but not much, if at all, longer than in MTTs.

Anyway, regs are going to stay in the game for many years, and over that time span their profits are likely to 'regress to the mean'.

If their environment cares too much about their short-term results, well, it's time to consider changing the environment to a supportive one, which has always been a good idea for a poker player.

Last edited by coon74; 10-03-2014 at 06:08 AM.
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Old 10-03-2014, 06:06 AM   #210
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

I assume when stars introduces roulette on .com regs should follow the recs there too. I think putting everything at 7 would be + EV. I mean, it hasn't hit in 20 spins, it should be there any moment....
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Old 10-03-2014, 06:15 AM   #211
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **



I hope you do understand the difference between people-vs-people poker, where players' edges do depend somewhat on their strategy, and people-vs-house games, where the house usually has an edge (and bans people who deny it the edge like card counters or bonus abusers). Spingos are still people-vs-people.

Time will show whether the rake is too high, but I've seen all the same regs play the biggest available iPoker Twisters for months, with slightly smaller net rake. I can safely assume that they see an edge there. Such a bunch of regs can't be all wrong.
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Old 10-03-2014, 07:27 AM   #212
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

coon74, he does understand, but the point he's making is that there being fish isn't enough if there's a large amount of variance on top.

I'm sure it's very possible to have a good winrate at these games. The problem is that having a good winrate at these games is no guarantee you will actually make money, even over very large samples. It's easy for now to say that having a 36% winrate is good and that it should even out eventually but if you play for 10k games losing money while having a positive winrate then all of a sudden these games will seem a lot less fun and happy.

And there is a difference between these and MTTs IMO because in MTTs the variance is a fairly necessary part of the structure (although payouts could be less top-heavy) whereas in this it's artificially added afterwards. These have the structure of a low-medium variance game except that the prizes are messed up and completely out of your control.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kerrydo
307th - I know its still early days but have you seen a noticeable reduction in traffic @ 60s/100s?
I haven't been playing lately but other people have noticed a decrease in traffic. I don't think anyone knows what the long-term impact on traffic will be though (except that it's a safe bet it'll be for the worse, but hopefully not by that much).
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Old 10-03-2014, 07:32 AM   #213
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
It's not that necessary to be a HUSnG guru to beat the Spingo* format,
I guess only time will tell if it pays to be really good at hyper husngs. Imo this kind of format and the better players evolved so much in recent times and did exceptionally well in exploiting even tiny mistakes that guys without much hu experience will not have too much fun playing an experienced heads up grinder. And adapting from 2max to 3max imo is easier than from 6max to 2/3max.
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Old 10-03-2014, 07:50 AM   #214
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

I'm not arguing with the evident fact that being good at HU hypers does pay in Spin & Gos, as well as 6-max turbos, btw, where the HU phase is crucial to the ROI.

I don't think 6-max regs are necessarily bad HU; some have a clue, but prefer getting fish in the HU phase 20-40% of the time in a 6-max SnG to having to battle regs from HU hyper divisions for the first month at each new stake. The state of the HU lobby, and the difficulty (for poker sites) in policing them properly, is the main reason why I've always rejected the idea of playing there (as opposed to, say, starting PLO cash tables, which I did).

But I'm not sure if that edge will be sufficient for HU regs to squeeze all other regs out of the game, or the abundance of fish will balance the disadvantage of the latter out.

You, HU regs, are so amazingly bloodthirsty

Last edited by coon74; 10-03-2014 at 07:56 AM.
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Old 10-03-2014, 08:14 AM   #215
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

This games threatens a lot of people income, goals and life in the end ...but you just don't care about those things do you? (just by reading your last created thread 1st posts)

I made you a little search cause at some point it just looks like you have some afiliation with stars or were involved in the creation of this games somehow but i see you don't, you're just a lazy sociopath (not attacking you, just stating what you basically said about yourself in other posts) who only cares about yourself and not even that much.

In a way i can relate with you (mostly the lazy part) but i'd surely wouldn't be defending so hard a game just for my own amusement while other can be really hurt by it.
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Old 10-03-2014, 08:40 AM   #216
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Sorry but this is nonsense kasparovski. It only threatens your income if you lay back and enjoy what you have. People that adapt (which poker always has been) or higly specalise will keep making money one way or another. Adapting can mean everything from changing game format to look for another of income..

So when a guy is adventoures enough to put in huge volume in these + hard work i doubt his income will be too bad...
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Old 10-03-2014, 08:41 AM   #217
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Yeah, sorry, I should stop posting and start sleeping, eating, studying, playing. See you at the tables, I hope you enjoy my money.
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Old 10-03-2014, 08:43 AM   #218
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

To anyone grinding this, whats your itm ev so far? you can calculate your itm ev by

((X*500+chipsEV)/1500)/X

X= amount of games, apparently you need 34.7% to breakeven, 36% for 3.5% roi.
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Old 10-03-2014, 09:27 AM   #219
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by callme View Post
Sorry but this is nonsense kasparovski. It only threatens your income if you lay back and enjoy what you have. People that adapt (which poker always has been) or higly specalise will keep making money one way or another. Adapting can mean everything from changing game format to look for another of income..

So when a guy is adventoures enough to put in huge volume in these + hard work i doubt his income will be too bad...
Some nonsense maybe, but my and i guess the concern of some regs is that this isn't/won't be an adaptable format and that will just take away traffic from our usual game that we specialized in this last few years. tbh i'm not THAT concerned cause low stakes have tons of traffic to be cut and i doubt high stakes will be much affected, but still, mixing in a roulete with hypers just sounds to degen to me and a step in the wrong direction, at least from a reg pov. What's to tell you this stops here? I read smt about a casino tab, blackjack and stuff being introduced and who's not to tell more formats like this will be introduced?

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
Yeah, sorry, I should stop posting and start sleeping, eating, studying, playing. See you at the tables, I hope you enjoy my money.
lol wouldn't hurt you as much as you think. but really, be happy how you want to be and even unhappy if you want to, not my problem. I just though it was strange for someone to be defending that hard this new game but i see were you come from, i was maybe a bit dramatic defending my pov but yeah, wtv.

Last edited by kasparovski; 10-03-2014 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:06 AM   #220
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by handsomedonk View Post
To anyone grinding this, whats your itm ev so far? you can calculate your itm ev by

((X*500+chipsEV)/1500)/X

X= amount of games, apparently you need 34.7% to breakeven, 36% for 3.5% roi.
probably no one will have a meaningful sample in the foreseeable future

I have 40% but only 378 games ($10 on fulltilt)

my actual ROI so far is 22% as I was lucky enough to hit 20x multiplier 3 times (winning 2 and splitting 1) but I prob won't play spin n go anymore. at first they are super addictive, especially if you run good but then they become just scary
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:44 AM   #221
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Maybe fish like these but I just haven't found much enjoyment in grinding these at all so far... Would much prefer a more traditional sng payout... 1000x payouts with no deal button seems to be taking the skill out of the game to some extent especially in a hyper format as obviously we are not 100bb deep... Would rather grind 6max turbos... Be interesting to see how these look in 6 months and if people are making much $
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:45 AM   #222
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

deals are possible


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Old 10-03-2014, 10:47 AM   #223
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Haha ok. Looks pretty tilting scrabbling around for a deal and calling moderators and what not and the game can't be paused - sure they will fix that though...
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:50 AM   #224
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerStars Baard View Post
Hello,

The template above is based on a miscommunication with support and has been corrected.

VPPs for Spin & Gos are earned in exactly the same way as for Sit & Gos, based on the rake of the specific tournament and credited immediately after the last hand you play.

Thanks,
Baard
$30 Spin & Go Probability

$30,000* 5 of 100,000
$6,000* 10 of 100,000
$3,000* 15 of 100,000
$750 80 of 100,000
$300 1,000 of 100,000
$180 8,000 of 100,000
$120 18,010 of 100,000
$60 72,880 of 100,000


5 * 30000 + 10 * 6000 + 15 * 3000 + 750 * 80 + 300 * 1000 + 180 * 8000 + 120 * 18010 + 60 * 72880
=
8589000

(30 * 3) * 100000 = 9000000

9000000 * 0,04 = 360000

9000000 - 360000 = 8640000

8640000 - 8589000 = 51000

So in this scenario there are 51k$ in rake were you don't attribute VPPs to players?!
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Old 10-03-2014, 10:52 AM   #225
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Just for the fun of it, I did a quick calc and worked out how many games we'd need to play to have a >50% chance of being sat in a top pay out 1000x tourney

Turns out if we haven't seen the spinner show a 1000x prize by our 13,683rd game, we're finally running bad. Before then, well, we were worse than a coinflip anyway.

Yeah, that's right, a massive 13,863 games just to have a 50% chance of seeing one of the top games. That's obviously no guarantee we're going to be winning it. So if we played 200 per day, five days per week, we're still ahead of the game if we see one within three months.


So, I wanted to see exactly how important is this one off "lottery" game to our results.

Say we played 10,000 games at $1s, hitting games with the various prize pools at exactly the expected rates. First let's exclude the top three tiers, which would, pro rata, would be expected to constitute a total of just three games between them. Obviously an average player wins 33.33% of games, but let's say we're an above average player, say we win 36%, with wins split equally among the prize pools too

7738 * 2 * 0.4 = 5571.36
1351 * 4 * 0.4 = 1945.44
800 * 6 * 0.4 = 1728.00
100 * 10 * 0.4 = 360.00
8 * 25 * 0.4 = 72.00

Total prizes = 9676.80

So, we've played 9997 games and we're still $320.20 in the hole.

So, it all comes down to these three big games. OK, let's assume we hit one of each (which would still be above average luck because we'd only be expected to have hit a theoretical half of a 1000x game, and one and a half of a 100x game)

Because of the prize structure, we get paid even if we don't win these big three, so we're guaranteed 100+20+10 = $130 from our three big games. That's going to get us back to just $190.20 loss. But with a win rate of 36%, we can only expect to win one of them though.

If we win the $100 we get an extra $90 and finish our 10k sample with a loss of $100.20

If we win the $200 we get an extra $180 and finish our 10k sample with a loss of $10.20

So if we want to show a profit for our 10k sample then basically we HAVE to win the 1000x game, something that we've got less than 40% chance of even being seated at by the time we reach game #10000


Even at a much more demanding 37% win rate, excluding our big three games, we'd still only be at$ 9945.60 from the 9997 smaller games, so still $51.40 down without the big three, and so once again our success or failure over 10k games all comes down to the lottery of just three games in a 10k sample.


I know there's supposed to be variance in poker, but this is absurd. A solid 37% ITM player in a game against just two opponents should be able to have confidence in winning something after 10k games.


I know it's been said a lot already, but the rake really is too high, and needs to come down a lot. Also the top tier really is far too high as well, it needs to be much lower, 200x is plenty enough, and the money saved needs to be redistributed at the 4x, 6x, 10x and 25x prizepools which you would see every day.

I'm sure it's been said before but I wanted to look at some numbers to see if they bore these claims out, and it turns out the numbers are probably more terrifying that most people thought
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