Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas
Nobody studies 4 handed play or how to adjust to bounties. These are potential sources of edge in the games. Same reason bounty builders on PS are so crushable -- doesn't matter that the prizepools are smaller when the field is making bigger mistakes.
Incidentally, c0on, if you were slightly less risk averse and slightly more willing to get in the mix I think you could be much farther in poker than you are (or seem to be, anyway). With that said, as I understand it, you have a pretty limited and particular set of goals re poker earnings. But I think you might want to consider pushing the spots you find a bit harder, as more money in your pocket now will compound on itself later.
I agree with all of this, except the claim that opponents' mistakes in a non-HU game are always to my benefit.
As a simple example, if the bounty is on my head in SNG Hero and all the 3 opponents play 'cEV Nash' strategies, then I can't win more than 25% of the time, by the definition of the Nash equilibrium for the cEV mode. Whereas if they were playing the 'SNG Hero Nash' (bounty-aware) strategies, trying harder to pick my bounty and thus stacking off lighter when I'm shortstacked and openshove, then I could win more than 25% of the time as I'd be extracting more value from each of them.
Of course, the real opponents play differently and not really well, and I do believe you in that they can be beat overall, but the fact that they theoretically can implicitly collude against me, without even realising that they're hurting my tourney equity by their suboptimal actions, is worth noting.
Sadly, I'm too prone to risk aversion and self-sabotage. I'm my own enemy who doesn't allow me to do what the rational part of me considers optimal.
Last edited by coon74; 05-10-2017 at 04:59 PM.