** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **
04-22-2017
, 02:26 AM
04-23-2017
, 10:02 AM
Also I got 2nd in WCOOP 3-max event, and ran hot in mtts in general, winning some and final tabling a bunch. I wasted most of that money, as it was my first year as a pokerplayer (started octobre 2015), and apparently there are a lot of fun things to spend money on
04-23-2017
, 08:35 PM
Quote:
I don't like uploading profit graphs. I ran roughly at EV minus money going to top 3 jackpots, if that helps
Also I got 2nd in WCOOP 3-max event, and ran hot in mtts in general, winning some and final tabling a bunch. I wasted most of that money, as it was my first year as a pokerplayer (started octobre 2015), and apparently there are a lot of fun things to spend money on
Also I got 2nd in WCOOP 3-max event, and ran hot in mtts in general, winning some and final tabling a bunch. I wasted most of that money, as it was my first year as a pokerplayer (started octobre 2015), and apparently there are a lot of fun things to spend money on
http://imgur.com/a/9JTbk
04-23-2017
, 09:34 PM
Oh, lol, those are back?
Right, the breakeven cEV will be the same since the rake is the same (with a very slight difference due to the top tiers not being winner-take-all). Variance, however, is not in the same ballpark. You will have to be quite lucky to get close to your $EV over any reasonable sample, especially if these are temporary (well, even if they're permanent and you GRIIIND). Here's a quick example.
Playing 100k games with 40 cEV and 28% rakeback will get you a $EV of about $400k for both the regular and millionare versions. In a simulation of 5k such players, we look at the median player (half of the players do better and the other half do worse). The median player wins about $360k in the regular version, but only about $200k in the milly version.
glgl
---
The red line is $EV
[50%] on the right is the median player.
Regular version
Milly version
Right, the breakeven cEV will be the same since the rake is the same (with a very slight difference due to the top tiers not being winner-take-all). Variance, however, is not in the same ballpark. You will have to be quite lucky to get close to your $EV over any reasonable sample, especially if these are temporary (well, even if they're permanent and you GRIIIND). Here's a quick example.
Playing 100k games with 40 cEV and 28% rakeback will get you a $EV of about $400k for both the regular and millionare versions. In a simulation of 5k such players, we look at the median player (half of the players do better and the other half do worse). The median player wins about $360k in the regular version, but only about $200k in the milly version.
glgl
---
The red line is $EV
[50%] on the right is the median player.
Regular version
Spoiler:
Milly version
Spoiler:
Last edited by Max Cut; 04-23-2017 at 09:46 PM.
04-23-2017
, 09:52 PM
^ Follow up.
If you can add 10 chips per game to your cEV because milly games are soft, then you should probably play them. That essentially cancels out the bad variance and adds some sweet good variance if you happen to get lucky. (Median player is still way under $EV, but it washes since the $EV is higher due to the higher cEV.)
Milly as above but with 50 cEV instead of 40 cEV.
If you can add 10 chips per game to your cEV because milly games are soft, then you should probably play them. That essentially cancels out the bad variance and adds some sweet good variance if you happen to get lucky. (Median player is still way under $EV, but it washes since the $EV is higher due to the higher cEV.)
Milly as above but with 50 cEV instead of 40 cEV.
Spoiler:
Last edited by Max Cut; 04-23-2017 at 10:02 PM.
04-24-2017
, 08:16 PM
) but likely still do the $15s even at 30 EV chips per game less. The downswings are a bit worse due to the higher buyin and lower cEV, but you're most likely making more money. That 1 in a million shot in the $10s accounts for like 4% of your expected ROI.100k games
5k simulations
28% rakeback
Cliffs:
$15s @ 40 Cev
Expected ROI 3.18% ($47718)
50% had ROI below 2.81% ($42195) [median player]
$10s @ 70 cEV
Expected ROI 6.59% ($65949)
50% had ROI below 2.23% ($22254) [median player]
Details:
$15s @ 40 Cev
Spoiler:
$10s @ 70 cEV
Spoiler:
