Booked!
Brb gonna hop on skype and cash in a few favors.

I have to show you 1% of the top 20% of regs? Given regs make up around 50% of the 100s pool, that would mean the top 20% of regs is the top 10% of the overall pool, and the top 1% of that group means...umm...you're asking for the top 0.1% of the pool? I'm sorry, but if you have to be the top 0.1% of an industry to make $100k than that industry is indeed absolutely dead.

What you think he means and what his sentences actually mean are two very different things. Bolded for emphasis.

lol i worded it completely wrong, and i said 100s+ meaning 100s to 1k if u can show me of the top 20% of those regs as in the elite of these stakes sharkscopes only really lowerstake guys and 100s and below have there scopes/stats available. i can think of 10 off top of my head who are considered v good that are blocked i mean it makes sense if these guys had stats on showing crushing 30k months out on the reg would everyone not study/grind them and become better tougher across the boards there? good regs from other varaints etc? hypothetical (mostly) but i can see why alot wouldnt wanna show, and for tax reasons to no doubt to. seems there job has worked as people think like this and dont wanna play husng because, like rypac said hes being seeing posts like that for 5-6 years

My reply was at grinder, not you.

But this thread is about spins, right

I assumed you were talking about spins as this is the spins thread.

he mentions cash game crushers, husng grinders and spin regs... first rule of spin thread? never talk about anyone outside of spins threads?

We can assume from the latest poker life podcast with dnegs that there probably won't be a 200$ spin atleast not any time soon. He doesn't say this specifically or even mention spins that much but we can deduce from the changes last year and his reasons for them.

This coupled with the fact that a lot of regs in training gonna reach 100s in 6 months tops and the rake being so high means the end is nigh for spins regs, thoughts?

It won't be the end, just the worst of those regs will trickle down to $60, then $30 and $15, basing their decisions on the chip EV instead of the BR sizes, to avail of the fish left there.

Sect7G has made a solid 10K-th post: from 2016 on, if you're going to live in a developed country and are yet able to get a decent real job, then don't miss the job opportunity - online poker is no longer worth your time unless you have a strong scientific interest in it (like coffeeyay or Will Tipton).

There's not 'a lot' of regs that reach 100s after 6 months. It's a tiny amount that can make it there...5% after 6 months, tops.

I didn't say they reach after 6 months of coaching, i'm saying there are a lot of regs already at 15s/30s that will probably reach 100s in 6 months since stables require them to move up as fast as possible.

I do wish your numbers were correct but I think it is too optimistic, spins are not that theory intensive for a hard working avg intelligence hungarian to master. Probably not gonna be a lot of 40+ cEV regs but you still lose money vs the 35 cev ones because of the high rake


I don't think it's that cut and dry yet, for an 18 y/o online still has enough to offer, if only a training ground to get theory down pat to be able to crush live to the fullest.
For the really motivated and high intelligence it's still not impossible to earn 100k+ a year and for a teenager that is the shortest path to that kind of income besides landing a killer programming job. In fact I'd say it's a very close path to programming, one must make the choice between living free and be accountable for his own actions or a drone in a Big 4 type of company, both have similar incomes so the choice is down to lifestyle

Stables requirements are no different to solo players - to win as much as possible, not to move up as fast as possible. They do have the luxury of being able to move people up based on EV alone (a benefit for both parties), but this is neutral.

I guess, Accord meant, 'stables require them to work as hard as possible'.

Even the second idea isn't correct. Rest assured there's plenty of lazy, 1k games a month horses in stables. They're usually marginally +EV (40-45 chips or so at 7s/15s/30s) so it's not worth booting them but neither are they going anywhere either.

Starting from zero knowledge, I can think of lots of quicker ways to earn $100k a year than online poker.

My 5% number was not based off a wild guess, it was based on the number of players both my prior stables had playing 7s/15s/30s/60s/100s. Think of a pyramid - there's masses at the 7s/15s level, a lot less at 30s, then it drops off a cliff at 60s and 100s.

Programming is a really high demand sector and low six figures for competent people that have done interview coaching is not rare at all. But it's one of the top fields to go into right now.

You're selling online poker short, in the grand scheme of things it's still very nice for average intelligence+ people with a solid work ethic and normal emotional control. Solid attainable income in a relatively short amount of time with incredible freedom and plenty of branch-out opportunities within poker and in related fields. Thousands of poker players will earn six figures this year too.

What opportunities? Coaching? Staking / lending? Getting a job for a gambling company (which is probably too hard for a non-EU/EEA citizen)? Doing some other business (which Koovoon is finding hard)? What else to do with a multi-year hole in the CV?

Well, then there's either 2 possibilities.

1) The overwhelming majority of people (95%+) do not have a solid work ethic and normal emotional control. If this were the case though, then chances are a random guy is in that 95%, and for some reason a whole ton more than 5% of the population seem to have no issues working a normal 9-5 type job.

2) You're overestimating how good online poker is.

What exactly is a short amount of time? I might accept you can make a few hundred a month in a short amount of time (but you can do this outside poker too - just go apply for a job at your local supermarket). Make $100k a year in a short amount of time? Hell no. Only top notch spin regs are making $100k a year and most of them have to be in stables because of the variance of spins (so they need to make 200k, or close to it, to get 100k in their pocket).

I don't think thousands of players will make 6 figures this year from all variants of online poker. In my estimation there's 'hundreds' of players that will make 6 figures this year.

You're just wrong. Maybe in spins alone if you only count people taking home $100k+ you have <1k.

Well, of course there are edge cases, like 2K 6-figure earners out of 20K regs (as in, people taking poker seriously) across all sites.

But how does the median spin reg look like? I guess that there are more Goldstars than Platinumstars + Supernovas (far not all of them played in the monthly GS freerolls in 2015 that had a field of 7K while SN freerolls had 5K), and that the median reg earns 5K VPPs a month, plays 3 tables of $7s part-time (2K tourneys a month) and makes $1000-1500 a month with rakeback from poker while likely still being at uni and preparing themself for a real career in case they don't become a poker superstar (which they usually don't).

Meanwhile, the median freelance programmer earns over $15 an hour (see the 2nd table) with less variance. And it takes only a few months to learn a programming language properly.

This is quite optimistic, to say the least.

To clarify, I meant full-time learning (an initial investment into a course + 5-10 classroom hours a week + a ton of homework and portfolio building) to the extent when one would be able to earn $15/hour, not to an expert level, of course. Or am I still being too optimistic?

Online poker grind may have a faster learning curve but it's a stressful job that is more likely to result in mental health issues.

You're probably being a little optimistic but studying programming is higher EV than poker for most people imo. More long term and more likely to make no money as a trade off.

Spins alone will likely be well under 100 (unless spinlyzer missed a ton of 60k+ profit players in the first half of the year), and HUSNGs alone under 100 too probably, but if you add up all of poker it should be well over 1,000.

That's doesn't make it easy, but you have people go to school for four years, get a degree in office administration/HR and start at 30-40k per year in an entry level job after those 4 years and five figures (if they are lucky) of studying costs. That's also not considered doing too badly as a college graduate either (plenty of degrees that won't get you there).

I hear you though, going into programming or engineering and taking it seriously is considered a pretty smart choice today and presumably will continue to be in demand for years to come. Engineering requires a lot of (costly in $ and time) school. Programming you can take the bootcamps, I've known poker guys spend 6 months on those bootcamps and get mid five figure jobs instantly, the market is just that lopsided right now.

The one tradeoff with programming is it's ****ing boring. Your code doesn't work because you didn't put that bracket in the exact correct place? **** off! Not how I want to be spending my life.

I doubt the median spin reg plays 2k games a month FWIW. 1500 tops, and if they have another job then 1000.

im gonna make $100k this year and im absolutely dog**** at poker, im good at earning compared to my relative skill-level though if that makes any sense. There is a ton of people banking $100k+, looking at the topfield on hsdb just isnt truthful anymore, guys like t....(cashgame grinder of insane volume, want to keep his name under the radar as i dont think he is that public but the guys in the know knows who i mean) makes $1m+ in less than 1,5 years and "noone" knows who he is and he doesnt even play higher than 10-20, avgstake is like 5/10, there just isnt as many people in between 50-100k like it used to be, and they have very little chance of "moving up", they are there for a reason and it is very hard to push through nowadays, so variance and ego destruction usually forces them to quit after a few tough patches and another guy take their place. In a first world country playing pokers when you are 25+ for $50k is a very bad life decision. Especially since its a career that is no more than 2 years long or possibly shorter(if one is at its relative learning/skill cap already) when you only make a figure like that.