ya in NLHE this is fine b/c people who are behind have like 10-20% equity on the turn, so even at 3-1 they're making a bad call. in plo he can have like no pair yet still have 50% equity, so getting him to make a bad fold - which you can do by potting, but can't by 1/2 potting - is a big win for you. that said, if he's not folding any decent draw on flop/turn but folds anything worse than a good 2pr on the river, feel free to set yourself up for a nice near-PSB river jam.

eta: and your point about betting big to protect your made hands is definitely true. people don't bat an eyelash at PSBs in PLO, so use them!

ldo

Unless you enter in the actual number, either your raise preflop is a minraise to 60 or a pot raise to 90. So I don't know what you have in mind by "raise less PF."

Why is betting half the pot advisable on the flop?

Why do you fold to the check-raise all-in? In other words, why is calling here horrendous?

Thanks Freakg

I am a Long-time cash ring player, tried a few HU SNG last month as change of pace and had immediate success, so committed to playing out 100 of them.

Here are my results, all $50 on FT. This is 30.9% ROI, which based on what I read here is a pretty good start. Can I draw any conclusions yet or do I need more data? I feel like I can do much better on next 100, as I gave away 3 - 4 wins with poor play.

[IMG][/IMG]

8,910 games 0.031 secs 287,419 games/sec

Board: Td 3d Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.589% 20.54% 00.05% 1830 4.50 { Kc9d }
Hand 1: 79.411% 79.36% 00.05% 7071 4.50 { AdKh, AdJh, Ad9h, Ad8h, Ad7h, Ad6h, Ad5h, Ad4h, Ad2h }

You are correct, sir. This is the stove result for naked Ad (Ad with no pair). We must include naked Ad in our range. What else do you add to villain's range given what little information you have here? Or is this crushing possibility enough to determine that regardless of what you add to the range, our equity cannot climb from 20.589% to 41%?

Sorry to bust your bubble, but you are running like God, and your ROI is absolutely certainly unsustainable. I look at people with at least 500 games and 15% ROI as royalty. Royalty eats sharks for breakfast. Try not to go insane as variance evens things out a bit in the near future.

P.S.: Royalty at $2 SNG's is not necessarily royalty at $110's.

I just took a closer look at your graph and I see that you earned it over 32 days. I stand corrected that what you are doing is possible only with this extremely slow pace, which is the hallmark of EXTREME opponent/table selection. If you play only people with negative double digits ROI, and you're having a run of good luck, and you're satisfied with playing only 3 games per day, and you're amazingly good at HUSNG, then 30% ROI is, in fact, sustainable.

2,970 games 0.005 secs 594,000 games/sec

Board: Td 3d Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.061% 46.06% 00.00% 1368 0.00 { Kc9d }
Hand 1: 53.939% 53.94% 00.00% 1602 0.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs }

That's the result if he has scared aces (no diamond). I know that does not constitute an entire range, but it's interesting to see the number is at least 41% here.

lol a few guys from work are having a live hu tourney tomorrow after work $200 buyin. im so working late tomorrow....

You are at 50xbb, your fold equity preflop is basically the same for a minraise, a 2.5xbb raise or a 3xbb raise so I prefer to play small ball and minraise. Obviously if you know they aren't paying attention and will call like a 5xbb raise with AA then raise 5xbb with AA but I am a donkey and balance my range preflop even when I don't need to.

Again, betting 1/2 the pot on the flop does the exact same thing as betting the pot but you lose less money when they shove or check/raise or when they call.

The only hands that you are racing and not WB are sets/2pair. If you want to call feel free but get on pokerstove and look at ranges and you will see how god awful calling is.

No, still not even close to sustainable.

yep FTP

any significative difference or someone extremely good that is too of a nit to move up that i should avoid at first when my bank isnt fully prepared for the 55s?

do you still see this at the 55s?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $1.50 Heads Up Sit & Go

Stacks:
SB (1,220)
Hero (BB) (1,780)

Blinds: 20/40

Pre-Flop: (60, 2 players) Hero is BB 8 10
SB calls 20, Hero checks

Flop: J 9 A (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: 9 (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: Q (80, 2 players)
Hero bets 80, SB calls 80

Final Pot: 240
SB shows
3 5
Hero shows a straight, Queen high
8 10

Hero wins 240 (net +120)

SB lost 120

[ ] games are dying

That's really not quite as bad as you're making it out to be. I get far, far worse calls than that all the time.

Hahaha you're at like the same BI level as I am 6 months after you took lessons from me. Amazing.

(moving to 55s again soon though, not rolled THAT well for it, but I'm going to channel my inner Rex Grossman here, unleash the ****ing dragon)

is this the close your eyes and mash the pot button repeatedly method. that would equate to the Rex Grossman theory IMO

Grossman always buckled under pressure.

Bring in your backup, inner Kyle Orton. He's an alumni anyways, wtf you going Grossman for?

Thanks Starzz and Sejje.

I have played millions and millions of poker hands, so I understand hot and cold. I can tell you that this was neither hot nor cold, but just normal. I track percentage of top pair hits, 2 pair hits, set hits, draw hits and all-in EV expected value. Everything was right in line here. I understand what the cold runs do to your win rates – particularly the bad beat runs. They drop it way more that the hot runs inflate it. I also can look on sharkscope leader board and see that the highest sustainable win rates are about 20 - 22%, with as you state 10% being shark, 15% being royalty. So there is no bubble to burst here.

My point or question, was can I make any inferences yet? Do losing players have runs this good? And I can still be a loser? How frequently do long-term 15% players have 100 tourney runs of 30% ROI? Is it rare, so albeit unsustainable, it is a solid indication that I am a winning player? That I am likely to be 10+% long term players? That I am likely to be 15%+ long term?

In a way, I guess you answered my question. My target is 500 tourneys and 15%.

I have full time job, so it will take me some time, but I can hit that mark by end of year. I will keep you posted.

I assure that 30% is not normal. Your hands can hold up as-expected and what not, but what's likely happening is your opponents are getting an unfair amount of great 2nd best hands to stack off with, getting it in dead more frequently than normal, etc.

Orton would wait until having like 40 BI before moving up ldo

Did u hack my PC and steal my graph??

Also I was refering to this mainly

was a random donkish hand played today, ive seen worse obv

and steve u gonna crush i know lets go crushasaurus one time gogogo

Season finale from last night. It's up on itunes. He's playing emil at 5k PLO IIRC.

It means" you are dead tomorrow too, donk"

or busted or finished...

lol, sandeep reset the stats again. Awesome. Someone seems insecure.