Quote:
Originally Posted by mela
Bet the turn. People don't bluff raise there as often as you think.
Clearly you have results to back up your thoughts; so I'm not discrediting what you say but imo I think they bluff raise more than you think. Think about the range of hands villian calls a x/r with? More jx as opposed to Qx.
Looking from villains view, you think hero x/r middle pair? Doubtful as we're turning our Jx into a bluff on the flop when we have good equity to just flat. Villain is just gonna shove in most cases with Qx, meaning we call with Jx and be crushed.
When the turn is a Jack, it's quite a bad card considering villains his calling range on the flop. I think villain is likely flatting more value hands (/Jx/66/Qx+random pocket pairs).
By betting the turn we fold out exactly everything we beat and get jammed on by bluffs/value hands all of which we have to fold. If villain did call a x/r with worse Qx/6x or random pocket pairs; we get at least a river bluff sometimes as opposed to nothing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyriver
Imo the check ott is pretty bad. You're missing a lot of value from worse Qx, straight draws, sometimes maybe even 6x.
As stated above; it makes no sense betting the turn when you think about it and villains calling range hands.
Do you honestly believe most Qx/straight draws/6x flat a x/r? Flatting ranges are usually quite strong and "some" Qx. They will likely shove as opposed to flat.
Last edited by ramdeebam; 05-11-2013 at 05:00 AM.