HU 25bb-18bb deep. Take a K94r flop on a minraised pot. We know villain folds relatively wide to flop c/r after they cbet half pot. Our c/r value range is KQ-KT, 94s, K4. To exploit villain's tendency we should add some (semi) bluffs to our c/r range. Which range of hands would you add first:

1. QJ, QT, JT and A6-A2 with backdoor FDs. Great hands to both c/c and c/r, which option do you think is the most profitable?

2. Unpaired Qxs, Jxs and hands like 87s and 76s with backdoor FDs. If not c/r'ing some of these hands c/c and some c/f.

3. Our worse backdoor FDs like T2s and 53s. Definitely folding these hands if not c/r'ing.

Thank you if you take some time to give some thoughts.

KQ-KT, 94s, K4 gives us 47 val combos; 44 if we're 3betting KQs pre.

But also - why aren't K9 and 44 in this range? If we add those and subtract KQs we're at 57 combos.

I'd appreciate input from better players, but imo:

The problem with gutshots like QJ, QT, JT etc is that our equity decreases drastically on bricked turns, making it hard to barrel on. A hand with a bd fd, or a hand like 76s which has the opportunity to pick up equity both in the form of fds and straight draws, offers the attraction of picking up more equity ott allowing us to barrel more comfortably. OTOH, we also want hands that retain some equity on a badugi turn.

If we were to bluff raise say QJ, QTs, JTs, 76s , 87s, and then A2s, A3s, A5s (all matching a suit on board obv) that would give us 37 bluff combos and a val:bluff ratio of about 1.5:1. Our bluffs have ~ 20% equity against Villain's bluff catchers (eg K8, T9) and our whole range is slightly ahead of the same (by 5-10%). This seems reasonable but idk.

Thank you for your thoughts mic_giu.

I think for KQs preflop EV(flat)>EV(3betNAI), because recs and micro/low stakes players in general are making so many mistakes postflop that a hand like KQs do better by just flating and keeping the SPR bigger OOP at these depths. My database gives some hints, but I wouldn't give it for granted just yet with this sample.

44 is a clear 3bet shove preflop at 25bb deep.

Due to card removal effects, K9 seems better just flatting the cbet. Taking many Kx and 9x combos from the range of cbet/call and cbet/3bet of a villain that already folds wide vs c/r, it feels like he is not continuing very often. K4 and 94 are different because many 4x are folding to a c/r.

I like your thoughts on hands like 87s, 76s and 65s with a bd fd, since the ev of calling these hands is not very good. But what about QJs, QTs and JTs? They would be very good calls with GS, bd fd, two overcards to the 9 and some SDV. Do you think EV(c/r)>EV (call) vs this villain? Would also like to know about the Axs with bd fds, since they hold good SDV.

What do you guys think of this c/r range: KQ, KJ, KT, K4, 94s, and the bd fds A6s, A5s, A3s, A2s, QJs, QTs, JTs, T8s, 87s, 76s, 75s, 65s? Am I overbluffing?

I think this is a bad flop to go wide with check raising, continuing range vs xraise is kinda obvious - pairs, draws, some A highs, mby some very good backdoors, so even fish wont fold that much more than he should.
And second sb should check bunch of Kx, but imo fish mostly cbet them so that makes his cbetting range stronger, so unless you got some reads he cbets a lot, I wouldnt check raise many bluffs, and even when sb overcbets you shouldnt go much wider with bluffs, because fish has tendency to not barrel much, its very common to see people cbetting 90% and turn cbet something like 35%, so not xraise bluffing at all is perfectly fine given you c/c flop and bluff rivers, but insead you should go wider with value.
The way we should exploit this board imo is when sb checks back, that would be probe a lot wider for value and with bluffs.

That makes sense, thanks.

So with K8-K6 we c/r/fold to 3bet vs recs?