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Originally Posted by TeaAndCrumpets
First thing to note for me is that I'm not loving the limp pre-flop. If it was suited, I like it but this hand flops awfully. If villain is pretty tight I shove, if he's kind of likely to call I'll fold and wait for a better opportunity. But hey, I'm not an expert, that's just my thoughts. Interested to know why you did do that though?
HU you want to vpip a wide range. There's many reasons to vpip this, if villain folds to limp cb a lot is one of them. There are also reasons not to play this hand such as if villain isos often or is a calling station postflop.
I'm pretty sure this isn't a nash shove, so shoving this would be very loose and only a winning play vs someone who wayyy overfolds pre. Besides if someone is really overfolding vs opens then you may as well start minraising 100% of hands, but at this stack depth, it's a bit weird. Bluffshoving vs recreationals is generally bad since they just overcall shoves.
Also fyi, suited hands generally can do better as limps/check backs and not opens/isos since they got more implied odds, and in these cases you'd prefer deeper stacks for more postflop play. Not really sure if that's applicable to this situation though...
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Flop is totally standard, probably the same way I'd play it. Another way I sometimes go in this situation is betting smaller on the flop and turn so that the effective stack is still deep enough for a decent river shove. I'm doing this in a hurry in a coffee shop so correct me if the maths is wrong but a 0.75BB bet on flop and a 1.5BB bet (into a 3.5BB pot I believe) on the turn will set you up for a shove which is a good 75% of pot. I only mention it because you did ponder over the three street bluff.
heh, the minimum betsize postflop is 1bb
then betting 1.5bb OTT is so ridiculously small i don't think you'll get many folds this way and to win you'll have to barrel river. Besides, it's quite a wet board imo, not sure you want to allow villain to stay in the pot until river to hit his random crap draws and there'll be many rivers that aren't great barrels.
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Ok, so as played, I think giving up is best here. It's quite a close spot, may be a slightly winning play but why take the risk? You're well ahead, and you don't need to be throwing most of your chips into a marginal situation. I'd pass, and wait for a better opportunity.
Even if a play is only a marginal winning play you generally want to take it since if you're not taking the most +EV line it's basically the same as not making the most money possible. Reasons not take the most +EV line is if you think your edge is so big that you'll get better opportunities later on or you want to reduce variance. And I do see your point that this may be one of those situations.
But this doesn't seem that close. Turn's a decent card for our range, and a good card to barrel, you fold out 4x, 7x, gutshots, oesd (all without a club), and I can't imagine having much other hands that he called flop with apart from some flush draws and monsters such as flopped 2p+ (which either x/r flop or will x/r now on the turn).