I'm sure that spamz would be calling all 3 barrels on 90% of turns and rivers, but fact is that his hand just isn't that strong with the way the board ran out.

well, the guy is cbetting ~100%, right? so he gets to the turn with most of his range. and on the turn there's plenty of semibluffs he could have, KsX, QsX, even random gutshots if he's feeling frisky. Isn't it conceivable he could bluff the river with those too, rather than giving up?

I'm not sure if he'd see the turn as a terrible spot to bluff at, either. Sure, we know spamz happened to c/c a strong hand, but all the villain knows is that he peeled one off. and the turn could certainly look like a good scare card for him to bluff with. I think it should scare villain more than spamz, after all spamzor's range is a lot stronger than villain's and has a proportionately higher amount of flush draws (which just got there) in it. But in the heat of the moment, would villain necessarily realize that? IDK, I guess that's a question only people who actually play 5ks can answer, I certainly don't know.

Guess I feel like he's gonna be getting to the river with a decent amount of air in his range, and is probably capable of realizing that a large % of spamz' range is now chopping with a large % of villains range, and nobody likes to call hoping for a chop.

as requested earlier, river timing would be nice to know. the faster he bets, the less Ax we should include in his range. He would have to atleast think about betting Ax to bluff you off a chop. anything over 10 secs though makes river timing semi-irrelevant.

fold pre

lol^^

results?

it is closer to a puke fold than a trivial fold imo. there might be some like Ks4x or Kx5s that might dbl barrel but with this board and your style, I couldn't see anyone intelligible trying to bluff you off with these hands on the river. I also don't see anything betting for value (AK included people) on the river unless it beats Q3. unless they are maniacally tilting or not intelligible, i'm sticking with that.

that was my initial thought but i don't see spamz having as much Ax in his range here as you think after the turn

well it's intuitive that the same player cant valuebet AK and turn Ax into a bluff, isn't it

and a_g ur just establishing that spam is c/raising an A so often that villain wont be seeking to bluff us off that part of the rest of this thread's callorfold range - as it relates to teh split pot question, obv - and thus their bet is for value too often for us to call, correct?

I've been reading this topic almost every day but didn't want to comment because I thought my ideas were off. But now that someone has put into words what my thoughts are, I'll also add this:

If it looks like a very bad spot to bluff, then doesn't that make it a (relatively) okay bluff spot against a thinking player? Spamz has somewhat alluded to the levelling idea and we know villain is able of brain damaged moves (ref. the 3 barrel bluff).

logical is a better word.

spamz is not c/r an A or even AA here--his range is almost all c/c (mostly) or c/r on river with maybe like 15% fold, not enough imo to try a bluff and too many c/r to bet for value too often

i like your logic Q and I could be wrong--i'm second guessing myself when your thought was the same as my first and THANK YOU for attempting to illicit better thought on here for once

better explanation: villain shoved the QJ vs.T8 hand thinking we have no 9's in our range, but we didn't see any 9's in their range so they aren't thinking on that level--they should see 3x and flushes mostly in our range, not A7 for example after we call turn

ty for the compliment. wish good posts were worth more $

tbh i have no clue how spam's play is generally perceived, but if its true that he isn't engaging c/c w Ax here v often than villain obv must be vb-ing most of the time bc there just isnt much else there for us to have worse than 3x that still peels the turn.

according to ur opinion of spam's play, the difficulty wld be that spam is just c/c'ing all of the hands he wants to showdown here (until the riv where he may c/r w the top of that range) which relatedly makes it hard to define villain's idea of a vb-ing range.

i dunno if i agree w the premise of all that but i guess talking it thru is starting to convince me that this is a fold, after all, just on the basis of how narrow of a range villain is going to barrel this riv with - even tho the flop and turn barrels make sense with a very wide range.

I just have to say that this is a really cool/close spot on river obv, and its pretty boring/annoying when few dudes are killing the thread by making post on somth we dont care here like ...flop decision
Samething when somebody say like u should bet 100 instead of 80 on flop...or some other crap/non useful comments like that

and this post is somehow even more useless. amazing.

EDIT: he pm'd me to defend making stupid posts about stupid posts. this is cycling out of control rly fast!

yikes. Def discuss to learn though, don't let spamz's "wtf I don't care" dissuade you, you're allowed to learn from this thread too and work out your own issues.

As for the hand, has anybody mentioned that if we call, we can take a note?

this is a good way to analyse it imo. Ur not exactly sure what villan is capable of cos he seems to have wierd tendancies from previous situations.

So now ur kinda in a spot where vs someone who CAN value bet/ bluff u off a chop with Ax there ur disgustingly +ev, while if they are the type who cant or wont bluff that spot then it moderately -ev. Imo, most players are ppl who are unlikely to be bluffing that spot (prob like 80% of regs) however if u say 80% of the time ur moderately -ev while 20% of the time ur highly +ev, then its prob a 0ev situation (cant be bothered to work it out exactly, dont have the skills either and can never do it in game anyway) For me if i think a situation is 0ev and i have trips i call fwiw ima station.

Also as rumnchess said, there is a certain number of hands that may have 2 barrel bluffed given the dynamic, as u said u c/c him Ahigh a few spots on flop. so some like Ks type hands may be getting to the river. Therefore it does kinda allow a slightly increase likely hood of him bluffing river especially given ur range prob being mostly Ax in ur opponents head.

Also call for future reference.

results:

**** i just got owned

tbh I didn't put this in his range at all altho not totally unexpected

results do matter. if we never saw the results we would lack info on how various villains play hands in different spots for future reference. seeing results helps with handreading.

fyp

fyp

Spamz only gave us one other example of where villain 3-barreled (the hand where he bluffed with QJ on AT78hhh6) so gaining this one piece of data doubles the information we have on his 3-barrel tendencies. Granted these two data points only make up a small portion of his 3-barrel range but to argue that this data is "infinitesimally small" and trying to insinuate that it is insignificant is ignorant.

Now I do not think we should call to "gain information", but I do think calling the river is +EV here for reasons I explained earlier.

i had more info if called yes, but unless any of you guys is planning on playing villain in the future i don't see what is relevant to results here
all i wanted in this topic is to discuss whether i should call river or not with THE READS WE HAD AT THAT TIME, which is what i knew, and what i wrote down (most relevant info at least)
so no, results don't matter, unless i'd post a 2nd hand vs this opponent maybe

I was talking about how results were relevant to you. Obviously they don't benefit myself or any other poster here unless we play the villain.

Anyway like I said before I think it's a call especially against a good thinking opponent.

How are we supposed to know if it is a call if you don't tell us what he had? I am obv trolling that is all I have for this thread I really have nothing meaningful to say but thanks for poasting.