results please?

+1

Learn to use PokerStove imo.
Select all suited hands you need in the graphic mode and then deselect the suits that you don't need. I think everything can be done without typing there. But the propokertools syntax looks cool too.

pretty sure you cant make it easier than *s*s and AK syntaxis

Nice spot.

Are you guys agreeing that our equity against villains valuebetting-range is somewhat 16%-20%?

Let's use 20% equity: [NOT SURE IF THIS IS RIGHT]

POT-ODDS: 640/(640*2+800) = 0.307692308

So lets figure out villains required bluffing%:

BLUFF%*1+(1-BLUFF%)*0.20 = 0.307692308

BLUFF% + 0.20 - 0.20*BLUFF% = 0.307692308
0.80*BLUFF% = 0.107692308

BLUFF% = 0.134615385



So if villains is bluffing 15%+ of time it's a call. Thats a small percentage. Anyway cant figure out the bluff he would be likely to do here. Here I muck my hand, but in game-time I'm prolly always calling..

I can see why you c/c'ed flop, but why turn? I thought this is a must c/r spot w a 1card FD out there, not to mention action killers like 4, 5

Yeah you might get K3 to fold this way if the river is not a K.

Pretty cool hand. Heading out the door but will post my thoughts later today. For now, just want to say this is a great example of how to start at thread (MJW is good with this too). Spamz gave us tons of relevant info, presented it clearly and concisely, and as such has generated good discussion. Also shows why he's one of the best - he's thinking about EVERYTHING.

Only just saw thus thread...

For those saying we can't have flushes here that's bs. I don't get why we're always c/r FD's here that's a stupid assumption imo.

This is so ridiculous close imo that I'm gonna fence sit and not know what to do... I don't really think it's going to be a mistake either way really and if you plan on playing this guy more in future then probs call...

Please do not spoil this; don't post results imo.

yeah checkraising turn is really turning hand into a bluff imo
even if i would "balance" it with like KsXx float and do it as well, i still dont think i beat his calling/jammingrange by much (if anything)
saying that i dont have flushes in my range is def wrong here tbh, and i just c/c again with them on turn indeed for quite obv reasons

edit:

i wont lol

Kinda irrelevant tho, don't you think??

OK. I completely agree with Spamz the river is extremely important because it should restrict his thin-value-betting range (hands like A9-AQ will bet far less often on this river than on other ones). It also might slow down some of his bluffs for similar reasons. Nonetheless I think we have to call.

Basically, we have a slightly under-repped hand against a guy who is capable of barreling and has an extremely high flop c-bet %. I'd be interested in his river timing because if he insta-bet then naked Ax is pretty unlikely, but if he took even a little bit of time, he could be betting Ax here to make you fold a chop. I agree with Pasterbator he's gonna be value betting AK here for sure.

I think he'd be expecting you to raise either the flop or turn a decent % of the time with FDs and he should expect you to have a lot of hands like a pp that picked up a FD on the turn, KsX, etc.

I also think there are tons of hands on this board that he will be barreling on the turn, and a lot of the time he'll get to the river and just decide he needs to bluff. Presumably your flop calling range will include some Kx and small pp's and he may think he has fold equity over these hands, plus some pot equity if he has a random one-spade hand.

You're pretty far behind his value range but he'll still have AK, all 3x, and every once in a while Ax betting you off a chop. I'd definitely expect to lose this pot more often than not, but I think we're good often enough to call.

i guess its pretty close... i agree w/ people who thinks the K on river changes the scenario. and i strongly disagree w/ people who is saying villain maybe is betting w/ Ax to make hero fold a chop. in my experience cash players overbet when they try do this in boards like this...very very rare someone is going to try you fold a chop (Ax) on this kinda of board w/ a 4/5 pot bet. btw if he did overbet id put naked Ace on his range... but this isn't the case.

also this is NOT a board where people barrel light and thats why id fold.villain need to be bluffing for our call be +ev. ya, i know villain will be betting this river w/ trips/AK, but we chop vs trips and spamz said villain was opening just ~80% on btn, so villain might open fold pf some 3x. imo villain's range has a lot of flushs/str8/boats. ya, has some 3x as 43s, 53s, K3s, J3s but trips is a very small part of his range. and we don't beat trips... calling because we beat a really small part (AK) of his vbet range isn't good imo. how many AK combos he has? and how many flushs/str8/boats he can have? same to trips... more likely villain has stuff like T6spades, 54hh than AK or 3x.

i know sucks when we hit trips and need fold.. its hard make trips heheh

Plz pardon the fact that im playing games that are equal to what u pay in rake :P

so im just curious were ef stacks a similar size in that QJ hand?? If so what significance do you place on the fact that made it 3/4pot here rather than overbet shove? does your calling range change dramatically facing each action (or do you think he thinks it changes)? is there any chance 3/4 is weaker than a shove? made hands clearly get less value and bluffs may get more folds?

what range would you raise for value here as hero... only like 22,33, A3s, A3o, K3o, KsXs or wider?

if you were in villains position, say you get cr shoved on the river, do u ever fold like any flush given that its such an unlikely spot for hero to be bluffing?

does the fact that it is an ugly board to bluff (as villain) make it less likely that hero would slowplay the river with a huge hand like a full house?

is this ever a spot that you would turn your Q3 into a dirty bluff given have a 3 blocker (which i didnt know how to put into the pokerprotools) and also the fact that ur range is so strong here when u raise? hero needs like 49% folds to be + ev, and villain needs like 25% equity to call.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,439 trials (Exhaustive)

board: A 3 3 2 K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AA, 22, AKs, A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, K3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Q3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Js6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, Ts6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, T3s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 93s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 83s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 73s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 63s, 5s4s, 53s, 43s, 32s, AKo, A3o, K3o, Q3o, J3o, 63o, 54o, 53o, 43o, 32o	12.71%	300	20
22,33, A3s, A3o, K3o, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s	87.29%	2,119	20

**Im never bluffing here at my stakes clearly, just wondering if up higher the thought would ever cross ur mind, or is it just ridiculous to think that villain may fold some flushes to a raise here??

villain would need 740/3560 = 20.8% equity to call a shove, my bad

to clarify i mean would there be some flushes you would consider folding if u got shoved on in villains position?

i think when we c/r here villain just sighs and clicks call with close to everything because we're basically repping boats and those are hard to make. we prob aren't even perceived to jam flushes for value except the nutty ones

the hand w/ QJ is pretty much irrelevant to this one cause that was a good board to 3barrel bluff a c/calling range wheres here theres no missed draws and very poor board to try to fold Ax. he will have to be pretty sick to bet Ax on the river

bluffs are a pretty big part of his range. if he's cbetting close to 100% then he has his whole range on the turn, and you might c/r some hands on the flop. If he picks up a draw on the turn he could keep barreling and fire the river when he bricks off to try to pick it up. If the river limits his thinner valuebetting range, he should be more polarized on the river, but since he cbets ~100%, frequency wise, I think he shows up with enough air/picked up draws to make it a call.

Don't post much in this forum, but hi. From a theory perspective, spamz, where are you in your range here after checking three streets? Game-theory-wise you're supposed to fold 44% here to make him indifferent to bluffing. I'm guessing you're in the top 66th percentile of hands you get to the river with taking this line, so folding is an exploitative line and you'd need to think his range is unbalancedly strong when he barrels on this board. Which is kind of ldo, I know, but might offer a different perspective to think of it in that way.

I think river timing is pretty relevant as rumnchess pointed out.

this is true, but we can be pretty confident that the first time we run into this spot that villain will perceive our river calling range to be much wider than it actually is

I'm not sure our calling range on the river really looks that wide tbh. I mean, what nutted calling hands do we have left in our range by the river that we c/c 3 with?

this is pretty weird; syous claimed that specifically cash regs can easily have Ax here, though he didnt say anything about their sizing tendencies or anything, but he said it was an easy call because of this

im even more confused now

syous is a spew tard