Simply put, GTO bluffing and calling frequencies don't mean "nothing", nor does it have to explicitly take account of the relative strengths of the ranges involved, as long as our range is balanced.

Thanks for your reply. Well, I agree that hero's calling range tends to be pretty strong, but that strong range is Tx heavy, and I don't think hero (or most regs, for that matter) will fold much Tx on turn which they bet/called with on the flop. On the river T9 still beats all of them but QT, so I would think it's a trivial value jam.

Also, please note that it's not really easy for us (both hero and villain) to have a straight or better on this runout; for that to be true, either hero has to be floating quite wide on flop, or villain be raising wide with lots of backdoor equity hands.

Well explained, thanks. The only real plausible straight we could have here is KJ and while we are floating some overcard cc combos I would think our range has far more Tx than that. Though if villain has a hand like T9 he blocks Tx combos so our proportion of sets and KJ goes up pretty sizeably. Given the turn bet if we floated with overcard hh/dd combos we will definitely fold there so after we flat turn I think we are pretty defined to Tx/2p/sets/cc combos (KJ without cc would be a pretty questionable float on the turn though I could see it).

I still question the Q9 value jam though because I don't think we're ever really good calling down this runout/action with 1p hands. A high-level villain might exploit that Tx is so much of our range but in general when 4 bets go in post it tends to be pretty strong, so if we're folding Tx on the river then our calling range is 2p/sets/flushes/maybe KJ. Obviously vs some villains Tx could be a call otr but vs a standard reg a flop c/r and overbet shove on a wet runout will tend to be really value heavy. Incidentally I struggle in a lot of turn spots like this (middling made hand after getting c/red on the flop) and probably fold too much because I think the river spots facing a large bet are pretty impossible. Obviously our pot odds are reasonable and if we know someone has knowledge of GTO frequencies they can have a fair amount of bluffs here, but in practice (or at least in my experience) even solid midstakes regs tend to be extremely value-heavy in spots like this.

Your responses have been making me think a fair bit thus far, appreciate it

No prob man, glad to hear and ditto.

I'm not sure what point you are making, or this could be a misunderstanding, but GTO has to take relative strengths of ranges into account- though in many cases it doesn't need to in hindsight.

A simple example is if villain has far too much value then it doesn't matter that we need to call with X% of our range to make villain indifferent to bluffing, since calling is worse than folding anyway even if villain bluffs with everything.

It's possible on some run outs in some spots we would just have to be folding more than just what the GTO numbers say we are supposed to. This is especially true the more short stacked we are since ranges are weirder (e.g. 12bb oop in a minraised pot and flop comes A high). Poker is not a nice [0,1] game, and it has some blocker effects. So the true GTO solution could be any number between 0% and the GTO call %.

Can we stop referring to them as GTO numbers? They're not GTO numbers.

I was reading the comments and thought to myself wtf? Then i looked at the hand again and realized that i calculated the pot wrong. How do you delete old posts? Sorry for another irrelevant message regarding this hand.

Indifference points are a GTO subtopic and it's pretty easy to see why. GTO is easier to type. Get over it

The core I wanted to say:

Player A has value/air range @ street 1.
Player B has bluffcatch range @ street 1.
Because of the value/air ratio of player A; there only exists 1 bet-size @ street 1 to make player B indifferent in calling with his bluffcatchers.

He calls, we go to street 2.

IF the value/air ratio is not influenced by street 2 card AND
IF the bluffcatch range is unchanged
THEN again there is at street 2 only one bet-size that makes player B indifferent in calling with his bluffcatchers; namely the same fraction of pot as @ street 1

IF we assume player A raises a 'GTO range' then the moment he bets a smaller/bigger fraction of pot at next street while the above is true; we either fold 100% or call 100%. If we would now have to fold 100%; the street 1 call is clearly a mistake.

Maybe now, my words make more sense.

not necessarily, most likely one player has implied odds vs the other one, meaning even if you call 44% of time maybe youre +ev/-ev depending on ur best strat for later streets. also since we're kinda deep but not deep enough to completely eliminate possibility of limping in GTO, it's possible that one side hits this flop so hard that there might not even be a c/r range in GTO. and even if they don't, who says GTO uses these pre & flop sizings. fwiw I don't know what the bluff number is supposed to mean, at this stage I don't think any hand in any player's range is worse than 10% vs the other player's range on such a dry flop, so it's pretty bad to divide the range into bluffs and value (it's also likely that both players have 22/44 in their range, so you can't really call anything "value" for GTO purposes except 44/TT)

We are talking about river GTO frequencies.. there's no later streets.

Yes, in spots where the ranges involved are unbalanced (which is often the case), we can't blindly stick to GTO strategies, and have to take relative strengths of these ranges. Hence my earlier point - this is a spot where people don't bluff as often as what GTO suggests, and this looks like an easy fold. I guess we are basically on the same page. I think I could have confused you by saying GTO doesn't need to take those into consideration, but I added "when ranges are balanced." When they are unbalanced, of course, things become more complicated.

+1

I think that where you say people don't bluff as often as GTO suggests, I think it's mostly because with the way the board running out it's very difficult to actually get to the river with Bluffs.

ah sry thought you were talking about flop for some reason. your posts are usually good too, should've prob read it twice before I assumed you made such a dumb mistake

fml for never calling here without 22+. Mom, you raised a NIT !

No prob man, I could see where the confusion is coming from. And thanks for your words, except that the post you quoted was il1keturtle's one