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30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop. 30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop.

07-19-2016 , 09:12 AM
6x multiplier(how much should this change things compared to playing a 2x), the guy had been pretty aggro but 1st overbetjam like this.

PokerStars - $28.20+$1.80|20/40 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 913 (VPIP: 61.11, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): 587

SB posts SB 20, Hero posts BB 40

Pre Flop: (pot: 60) Hero has 9 2

SB calls 20, Hero checks

Flop: (80, 2 players) 6 9 8
Hero checks, SB bets 873 and is all-in
30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop. Quote
07-19-2016 , 12:29 PM
fold it
30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop. Quote
07-19-2016 , 12:34 PM
I don't think we can ever call here, and I don't think it's even close. What kind of range do you expect opponent to show up with that we are ahead of, or even getting the 47.78% equity we need to break even.

If we give opponent a reasonably wide range of 77-66,A7s,QTs-Q9s,Q7s,J9s,J7s,T8s+,95s+,86s+,74s+,65s,AhTh,AsTs, AcTc,K9,K7,Q9+,Q7,J9+,J7,T9,96+,86+,76,74 with lots of draws, pair+draws, a few nutted hands, a bunch of two pairs, top pairs, and some 2 Over+GS+BDFD combos, we are getting only 44.05% equity. Certainly, ranges for unknown seemingly aggressive villains will vary in this spot, and you can discount some of the above hands because villain would likely raise them pre, but it is pretty optimistic to give villain a much worse range for shoving 14BB to win 2BB and risk doubling us up.

*Note: I used suited hands in a lot of spots (like A7s or 75s) to reduce the number of combos for those exact hands from 16 to 4, even though suited or unsuited cards would be part of villains range. This is to account for hands that most villains will usually take a different line with.*

Even if he's doing this with only straight draws (and not even pair+straight draws) we are not in great shape. Against a range of K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,74s-72s,A7,K7,QT+,Q7,JT,J7,74 you have only 58.13% equity, and this is likely the absolute best case scenario. Again, some of these hands may be discounted because they are less likely to be limped pre, but it does not significantly affect our equity.

It's true that you are rarely worse than 3:2 against villain's range here, but there is nowhere near enough money in the pot to justify taking the worst of it. You still have 14BB, you can wait for a better hand or at least some fold equity. You've invested nothing in this pot so far beyond your blind.

EDIT: - Mathematically the 6x multiplier changes nothing vs 2x. Even if you had 100x multipler the math doesn't change. How you feel when you win/lose may change, but EV in winner take all SNGs is static regardless of $prize.
- Some opponents will play better when there is more money on the line and some will play worse, but there is no way to know which side of this equation villain falls under, and even if we did it would never change our approach enough to where this hand is anything more than a VERY marginal call.

Last edited by Sheep4ker; 07-19-2016 at 12:44 PM.
30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop. Quote
07-19-2016 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep4ker
I don't think we can ever call here, and I don't think it's even close. What kind of range do you expect opponent to show up with that we are ahead of, or even getting the 47.78% equity we need to break even.

If we give opponent a reasonably wide range of 77-66,A7s,QTs-Q9s,Q7s,J9s,J7s,T8s+,95s+,86s+,74s+,65s,AhTh,AsTs, AcTc,K9,K7,Q9+,Q7,J9+,J7,T9,96+,86+,76,74 with lots of draws, pair+draws, a few nutted hands, a bunch of two pairs, top pairs, and some 2 Over+GS+BDFD combos, we are getting only 44.05% equity. Certainly, ranges for unknown seemingly aggressive villains will vary in this spot, and you can discount some of the above hands because villain would likely raise them pre, but it is pretty optimistic to give villain a much worse range for shoving 14BB to win 2BB and risk doubling us up.

*Note: I used suited hands in a lot of spots (like A7s or 75s) to reduce the number of combos for those exact hands from 16 to 4, even though suited or unsuited cards would be part of villains range. This is to account for hands that most villains will usually take a different line with.*

Even if he's doing this with only straight draws (and not even pair+straight draws) we are not in great shape. Against a range of K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,74s-72s,A7,K7,QT+,Q7,JT,J7,74 you have only 58.13% equity, and this is likely the absolute best case scenario. Again, some of these hands may be discounted because they are less likely to be limped pre, but it does not significantly affect our equity.

It's true that you are rarely worse than 3:2 against villain's range here, but there is nowhere near enough money in the pot to justify taking the worst of it. You still have 14BB, you can wait for a better hand or at least some fold equity. You've invested nothing in this pot so far beyond your blind.

EDIT: - Mathematically the 6x multiplier changes nothing vs 2x. Even if you had 100x multipler the math doesn't change. How you feel when you win/lose may change, but EV in winner take all SNGs is static regardless of $prize.
- Some opponents will play better when there is more money on the line and some will play worse, but there is no way to know which side of this equation villain falls under, and even if we did it would never change our approach enough to where this hand is anything more than a VERY marginal call.
Thanks for taking so much time for answering.
30$ spin. 7x overbet jam on flop. Quote

      
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