I assume regs are shoving their 6x on flop pretty much always, along with some 4x and 5x, so easy jam on turn? Villains range should be full of draws after just calling the flop. Maybe check-calling turn/river is even better than jamming to get value from missed draws?

PokerStars - 40/80 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 1,129 (VPIP: 71.32, PFR: 33.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 274)
Hero (BB): 1,871

SB posts SB 40, Hero posts BB 80

Pre Flop: (pot: 120) Hero has 6 2

SB calls 40, Hero raises to 200, SB calls 120

Flop: (400, 2 players) 5 4 6
Hero bets 200, SB calls 200

Turn: (800, 2 players) 9

I think he's going to check back so many hands behind that didn't want to shove OTF that make checking a better play than shoving... We don't run into his higher value range some % of the time and don't just fold out all hands we're beating i.e. 4x/5x.

So, if we check and he checks back, I think we can get to the river thinking villain has: 4x/5x, 98 occasionally + maybe some random overs like A2/K3 and the few combinations of 87 probably checks back.

I think with the eff stacks as they are, tonnes of villains like to give away their hand strength in these situations. I think they're likely to check back 87, but other value hands might only bet 300/400. Don't think he wants to shove any premium hands because they're so rarely going to be called for that bet size and strength vs our line.

On the flip side, we look so weak here that I think villain is happy to just shove loads of 8x/7x/3x combos expecting us to fold a really high % and be happy to do it with K8/K3 etc. And I don't think many villains will be balanced in this spot and just end up jamming loads of non SDV draws as they're more likely to get folds than bet/bet.

Check and decide on rivers
Check call a shove
Check fold to 250-450. Too many ugly rivers.

Good spot though.

Nice thorough answer.