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15s - 4man HU - Final Match 15s - 4man HU - Final Match

11-21-2014 , 01:49 AM
Villain es 71/33/9, so my question here is should we ever fold otf to that sizing?

    Poker Stars, $14.39 Buy-in (25/50 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #32820882

    SB: 1,885 (37.7 bb)
    Hero (BB): 1,115 (22.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J Q
    SB raises to 150, Hero calls 100

    Flop: (300) 5 T 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, SB bets 1,735 and is all-in,
    Spoiler:
    Hero calls 965 and is all-in

    Turn: (2,230) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (2,230) K (2 players, 2 are all-in)


    Spoiler:
    Results: 2,230 pot
    Final Board: 5 T 9 2 K
    SB showed A T and lost (-1,115 net)
    Hero showed J Q and won 2,230 (1,115 net)



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    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-21-2014 , 12:05 PM
    Unfoldable given pot odds.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-21-2014 , 01:59 PM
    Hey there,

    I think we are more concerned with his range relevant to the big sizing otf this deep. Any past tells would be great if he had done this before and his hand was shown.Is the 3x pre standard?

    In my opinion. If he is capable of of shoving draws then its a call with many outs.We might be ahead if the draws consist of 7x8x , small flush draws. But i would be surprised if he balanced this with his monsters , JJ+ , 2 pair+.

    With no reads i think we are flipping here alot and i would call
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-21-2014 , 02:30 PM
    Saifulh- preflop is an interesting question for our range, but for this specific hand calling is pretty much guaranteed to be best.

    Postflop we can't fold even if villain is shoving a range of tp+ and no worse draws.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-22-2014 , 08:25 AM
    yeah i'm snap calling this.

    Villains in general aren't jamming 2 pair+ in this spot and as watergun said you have to call given pot odds.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-25-2014 , 11:55 AM
    @Saifulh, he was actually limp/folding to iso a lot and he was mr not 3x so this hand was the first time he use that size pre so it makes his range stronger imo like i posted it he was a 71/33/9.

    Regarding pot odds, aren't we getting 1.3:1?, so we need something around 43% equity vs his shoving range otf, and against JJ-AA, AT, AhKh, all his combos of AKo and AKs (he could just shove when he miss the flop) we get like 40% equity vs that range.

    So my questions are; how strong is his range otf to be profitable for us to call? and should we call with 1.3:1 pot odds?
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-25-2014 , 10:10 PM
    I think you've missed the point. Ask yourself "why" a fishy villain would elect to jam in this spot. Some of the hands you have assigned to villains range are very unlikely...
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-25-2014 , 11:11 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ellzebub
    I think you've missed the point. Ask yourself "why" a fishy villain would elect to jam in this spot. Some of the hands you have assigned to villains range are very unlikely...
    Good read, i didn't think it that way, i only put the top of his range there and it doesn't have to be that way, so we have more equity and as you said he is not jammin' 2 pair or a set in that spot. Also watergum made it clear that with this hand is a never fold. Tyvm for the feedback guys, much appreciated.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    11-29-2014 , 08:30 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ellzebub
    yeah i'm snap calling this.

    Villains in general aren't jamming 2 pair+ in this spot and as watergun said you have to call given pot odds.
    I'm not folding probably but this is far from a snapcall. Your reply indicates we should "only" be worried about 2pair or sets. If he limp/folds a lot and minraises usually, then this 3x is likely going to be weighed towards strong hands. So yeah I'd discount 2pairs. I definitly wouldn't discount sets though (less likely perhaps, but far from impossible). I most definitly do not see why JJ+ is unlikely to just be jammed here. After all he did it with AT and JJ is literally the next best hand. The thing I'm "worried" about most is KJ/KQ/AQ/AJ however, which I would see him easily jam as well. Or some heart combo's although there aren't an abundance of those I suppose that aren't already mentioned. Given the preflop info, this is far from a snapcall but more a shrugcall.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    12-01-2014 , 11:37 PM
    I see what your saying spamz, but op didn't give any info on preflop sizing tendencies so I'm unsure as to why you've included this as an argument.
    In my experience at this level and the small amount of reads op has given this is usually a top pair that's scared of being outdrawn, a draw, or overcards that they don't know how to play so they just jam out of frustration. I agree that JJ+ is a possibility, but should we really give a **** when we have so much equity against the range an average villain would be doing this with?

    Last edited by Ellzebub; 12-01-2014 at 11:50 PM.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    12-02-2014 , 06:32 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ellzebub
    I see what your saying spamz, but op didn't give any info on preflop sizing tendencies so I'm unsure as to why you've included this as an argument.
    Wut?
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hidequick
    @Saifulh, he was actually limp/folding to iso a lot and he was mr not 3x so this hand was the first time he use that size pre so it makes his range stronger imo like i posted it he was a 71/33/9.
    Anyway:
    Quote:
    In my experience at this level and the small amount of reads op has given this is usually a top pair that's scared of being outdrawn, a draw, or overcards that they don't know how to play so they just jam out of frustration. I agree that JJ+ is a possibility, but should we really give a **** when we have so much equity against the range an average villain would be doing this with?
    We flip vs top pair, and are behind vs draws, gratz? If you're gonna start saying that 76o for the epic gutterball is likely here, but JJ+ isn't, then you need your head checked. Especially with the preflop info we got here, this is really close.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    12-04-2014 , 08:40 AM
    Oh. Completely overlooked hidequicks second post when replying spamz. My bad
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    12-04-2014 , 09:43 PM
    @spamz yeah i saw it like that, so put him in the top of his range but since we have outs but not the best draw, and getting 1.3:1 to that cbet my main question was and still is is this a profitable call or an exploitable fold (but i guess with his stats prolly he is almost never behind equity wise)
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote
    12-05-2014 , 02:21 PM
    Flip a coin irl really whether to call or fold. It depends how you weigh his range towards possible flipping hands or badly behind. Maybe call, so you'll have a better view of your weighs if you call here more so you can make better decision in the long run.
    15s - 4man HU - Final Match Quote

          
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