$15 hyper - jam or check river with J high? - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$15 hyper - jam or check river with J high?

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04-15-2017 , 12:04 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Villain at 10-13BB:
-open shove 21%
-minr 43%
-limp 31%

At 8-10B:
-open shove 41%
-minr 24%
-limp 27%

Decent sample sizes. Assume no further reads.

Is jamming the river standard? Or do you think too many 2x, 3x, Ax and Kx don't min-raise pre at 10BB, so that J high might have decent SDV and marginal fold equity?

PokerStars - 15/30 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 23.47 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 50.27, 3Bet Preflop: 6.15, Hands: 662)
Hero (BB): 9.87 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 2

Hero checks, SB bets 1.57 BB, Hero calls 1.57 BB

Turn: (7.13 BB, 2 players) Q

Hero checks, SB checks

River: (7.13 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero bets 6.3 BB and is all-in

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04-16-2017 , 06:19 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

My last sentence was a bit vague. What I meant to say is that there don't seem to be too many hands in villain's range to fold out on the river. Few 3x and 2x minr pre, a decent amount of Ax and Kx open shove or limp/trap, and most air hands will double barrel this turn. It seems like villain arrives at the river with a lot of 9x, which ofc will never fold.

Are these strong enough reasons to just take our little bit of SDV vs his (rare) air?

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04-16-2017 , 06:34 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

You misread the hand. Villain is SB.

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04-16-2017 , 06:42 PM

noxplode

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 45

Sorry, I misread, you are right.

What about raising flop? Even AI. It sounds spewy but do you have fold equity based on reads? I like calling this flop deeper, but now you have only 7BB left.
You have a lot of hands against him. What is his cbet % at this depth? Is his minr polarized at this stack depth? Does he fold a lot to flop x/r?
His PFR and VPIP show a somewhat tight player.

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04-16-2017 , 06:56 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

I think x/shoving flop is fine, but I prefer flatting, because we have good implied odds, as players tend to get it in light with made hands at this depth. For instance, if the turn would be an 8, many players would shove their 8x, while they wouldn't double barrel it when deeper. At the same time I feel like players double barrel bluff less if the barrel would be a shove, so that we can realize our equity often, and bluff rivers when we miss.

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04-16-2017 , 07:09 PM

noxplode

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 45

I like your thinking.

As played, a good player could put you on a missed FD, but vs the population I think this is a good play on the river, although you are right, there are some 9x in his range. You are probably beating nothing if it goes c/c on the river.

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