$100 HUSNG on PokerStars - Your thoughts about the max EV play and river play? - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$100 HUSNG on PokerStars - Your thoughts about the max EV play and river play?

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06-27-2013 , 05:20 AM

errorpoker

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 168

This is second hand of the match and don't think this guy is a reg so no reads for now.

PokerStars - $98.12+$1.88|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players

BB: 490
Hero (SB): 510

Hero posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has A

Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80, 2 players) 3

BB checks, Hero bets 30, BB calls 30

Turn: (140, 2 players) 8

BB checks, Hero bets 60, BB calls 60

River: (260, 2 players) 8

BB bets 360 and is all-in, fold

Spoiler:

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06-27-2013 , 07:44 AM

zamzzz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 73

I think your sizings are good on every street but I would call on the river. Most Qx would raise on the turn at the latest. Villain's basically saying he has q3, random 8 or Q with a big spade kicker (qt-qk). Those eights some villains (especially fish) would check on the river.

In this spot I think you will mostly see some busted flush draws, some small pocket pairs which didn't 3-bet pre and 3x that villain now turned into a bluff.

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06-27-2013 , 08:05 AM

Haru

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 277

Quote:

Originally Posted by zamzzz

flush got there ott.

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06-27-2013 , 08:23 AM

zamzzz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 73

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haru

flush got there ott.

I am talking about spade-nonspade hands

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06-27-2013 , 09:35 AM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

35 flop, imo same as 30 but 5 chips more
bigger turn - 95-100, check this river
as played idk, I want to call because of missed turn fushdraw, but I think I havent seen people taking bluff line on such board also its an overbet so folding cant be bad.

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06-27-2013 , 09:58 AM

zamzzz

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 73

Why bet turn bigger? Wouldn't we want to keep fds in? Is it to set stacks for river shove?

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06-27-2013 , 11:01 AM

Orsulab3rt

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,306

^
fish will not fold fd to bigger size and not even 3

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06-27-2013 , 11:27 AM

HUplayer

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 66

If villain got his flush would he really have shoved all in when the only calls he will get is a full house, and maybe OP's aces?

I think a queen for villain would mean a raise on the turn.

Personally I think villain has hit an 8, isn't sure where he is, and check/called you all the way down because he thought he was ahead but wasn't too confident

I think fold is marginally the best play, but the odds to call make it close

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06-27-2013 , 06:19 PM

KnutXX

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 263

Quote:

Originally Posted by none888

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06-27-2013 , 07:45 PM

#10

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

id call

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06-28-2013 , 01:17 PM

#11

whatupdoez

newbie

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 27

fold in my opinion. talking about bet sizing and how fish think is not useful at all. fish dont think LOGICALLY, they dont think, "oh the only thing that calls me is a fullhouse or AA or w/e" they just shove and hope or whatever. So good fold imo, what did he call on flop and turn with. Has to be a Q or 8, MAYBE a flush, but he'd check those back on the river, since it does have showdown value.

anyway, if he was a fish, no point in making a hero call here, just fold and move on and you'll find WAY BETTER spots...

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06-29-2013 , 11:07 AM

#12

matvaju

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 607

Bad sizing on all streets. Flop should be 40, turn 90, river is a shove. As played, fishes allways shows up with nuts when they take this line, so fold imo.

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06-29-2013 , 01:01 PM

#13

JSpazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 6,694

yeah fold river, what does he even have in his bluff range? He'd need to have double floated hands like 9s7x, and if he can float those, he can float most 8xo on flop too. Not to mention fishes will sometimes check down even 9x here thinking they're good, and they can conceivably play Qx like this. even if he gets to river w a worse PP I doubt he valuecuts himself here >20% of time. I'd guess we're good here maybe 30-35% tops

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatupdoez

anyway, if he was a fish, no point in making a hero call here, just fold and move on and you'll find WAY BETTER spots...

this is bad logic tho. if you're always giving up close spots and never heroing vs fish you're leaving tons of money on the table

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