If you say my calcs are off then show me yours. I'm not a math expert and I don't think my range is optimal, I'm just saying that it's better to be calling with the range that generates the highest ROI for the series of matches rather than the highest hourly.

Actually the only miscalculation I see in my post is forgetting we only pay the small blind to see our hand on the button. And that makes the ROI of a tighter range even higher compared to the loose range bcz we lose less when trying to achieve the desirable equity.

Obv we need to open up with shrinking stacks but at a reg speed match I like my range a lot. I like missneedles range for a turbo starting at 15/30.

Thank you for this discussion... I debated using a tighter range but went what I thought was surely +EV (any Ace, pair, KT+)

In Game #1, blinds were 15/30. I had 2090, Villian had 910. I rivered a straight the hand before, sucking out his 2 pair.

The next FIFTEEN hands, Villain insta- jammed... or I folded the button. My best hand during that stretch was K6. By the time I called off with AK, stacks were 1685-1315

The other games, stacks were pretty much 75BB's. 7 hands played (A5) and 10 hands played (KQ)

this sounds good around 50bb, obv loosening up at high blinds.

This range seems not bad to me even though it's def. a bit on the tight side (if stacksize 50BB). As I mentioned I would call a bit looser as the EV of the call per se is higher if the calling range is at around 35% compared to 25% or even 12%.

The only thing I dont agree at all here is not calling with 55. Please don't fold this - it's a monster vs. a 100% range (and def. better than many of your hands like A2s, K7s etc).

Agree w/ adding 55. I understand what you mean when you say "the EV of the call is higher if the calling range is at around 35% compared to 25%" but how can one figure this out mathematically? I'm clearly not a math person.

I can give you a quick example: lets say eff. Stack is 50BB before posting.

He shoves and you will call the remaining 49BB 24.7% of the time (55+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,A5o+,K9o+,QTo+)
So either you call and win 62.9% of the time 51BB or you call and loose 37.1% of the time 49BB:

EV = 0.247 * (0.62956*51 - 0.37044*49) = 3.4

Which means you win 3.4BB with this move.

If you make the same calcs for AA-55,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q8s,JTs,AKo-A2o,KQo-K6o,QJo-Q9o,JTo you get an EV of about 4BB which is quite a big difference.

They are VERY beatable. The fish are all one long game. Just because you lose 3 measly games in a row doesn't mean you won't average out WAY ahead. It's logic like that which convinces losing players that they are just "unlucky" and can never be "lucky enough" to win even if they are always 65% all in.

OP just keep playing them if you can take the variance, otherwise find other players to go after. Personally, as long as I'm getting my money in good everytime, I'll play that person until they decline. I've lost 5 in a row to a donk before, and then won like 11 of the next 12. Just think long term +EV it's always right

i think this didnt get enough love

Don't we risk making a mistake going so wide if villian is instead shoving ie top 66% and that he just catched 5 hands in a row in that range and such we incorrectly perceive the shoving as ATC ?
And is such the widening of our calling range not determined by the progressive collection of better reads (in this case consecutive shoved number of hands)?

def. good point emus.

I just blindly assumed anytwo for opponent. I think I played just one opponent where I was really confident he was shoving any 2.

It's def. not enough if he is shoving 4 in a row for example.

no point in continuing to play, you've already lost 3 & in my experiance as soon as they loose one they will quit you so you could end up losing 4 or 5 to bad luck then having no chance to win it back.

lol? keep playing him until he leaves...

if it were me and I did lose 3 straight, and he is seriously jamming any 2 just fold man, fold man, fold man, and then call and laugh ... will either slow him down so you can play for real or you can bust him with the goods

JUST WAIT FOR QQ OR BETTER

how to find out the best calling range. start with AA and go down the hand list. keep adding hands until the the %chance of winning with the particular hand ur considering reaches that for maximizing growth given your current amount of chips and blinds.

????

profit

omfg now i have that voice stuck in my head again

just started shoving ur button back at him.

You have 3 games worth of reads and he thinks your not having a good time so yeah rematch baby.

flawed thinking ftw <3

well, i would be calling all the hands you give... + all other hands I'm calling EV+ with. An edge is an edge.

22+, Ax, Kx, Qxs, J4s+, T7s+,97s+, 89s+, Q4o, J7o, T8o+, T9o+. if vilain is shoving ATC for 50BB all these hands call EV+ from BB, feel free to ditch the lower end of this range.

I would give him 1 more game after he tilted. Then I'd just feel bad playing him. I wouldn't say it's immoral/unethical. Afterall you see pro sports teams all the time drive other opponents into the ground even after they've effectively won. Except they're not losing money along the way.

I love those guys. Keep it up