Ok so lots to talk about here:

First, Please understand the concept of a marketplace, this is a market... people offer something, others accept or reject that offer. That said though I typically sell at higher markup (check my other threads) but sold at 1.25 here based on the toughness of the field. I had a long conversation w/ Ankush (Pistons) on how I think I could sell at 1.35 and sell out but wasn't going to be because I believe 1.25 is more fairly priced, and the fact that I sold out within 1 hour of posting + have about 120% worth of requests in skype/twitter/FB messages I would say the market agrees with me and not with you.

Secondly, all of the action I sold including that to my own father, etc., was all at 1.25 : 1 , none of it was even 0.01 below that.

Lastly, it's pretty obvious you don't think my MU is justified. I assume you think you are one of the better players in the field. I would very very gladly play a similar structure online vs you and would love to set that up


Almost definitely, yes.

I have had at least 2 HS guys message me when I first posted asking to buy the full 50% as well as another ~30% or so in smaller requests, I'll try to direct some of them to the thread or to PM you.





edit: would prefer this thread didn't turn into a ****show like some of the other market threads have recently, please PM me if you want to respond Vanessa & others, although I'm sure the attention whore in all of you will make sure you want to get a last word in here .


post.edit: Because P.P.S.'s are cool, I find it ridiculous that after this sold out pretty much instantly you would question the MU after you've sold at multiple 25ks at like 1.25 and 1.35 and even had to make like 3-4x posts in there trying to get people to come in and buy from you like they didn't see the value/not value the first time. Just don't get how you can justify your reasoning here while clearly having no issue pushing a MU people thought was too high on the marketplace for your own personal advantage where as I intentionally sold at a markup lower than what I thought I could get (maxEV for my personal gain) and again the speed that it sold out in + huge amount of extra interest in it reaffirms I was not being unreasonable (at least in my own opinion and that of the market's, obv your entitled to yours but I just don't get why your coming into threads trying to manipulate your opinion on to others, it's not like this is a marketplace full of uneducated people who have no clue how to gauge value or not... people make informed decisions and that seems like the end of it, just seems like you are just a constant hater in so many places lately just STFU and let the free market do it's work, jfc).

/rant

fwiw i don't think you are out of line in anyway. I just think its fair that after you sell out i can book more action for my personal reasons.

Also if this is open, i would like to accept this, let me know.

gl regardless.

100% agree I have 0 issue at all w/you x-booking vs me, seems totally fine to me if there is a market for it.


as for if that's open to you I know literally NOTHING about you outside of hearing all my Live MTT friends say "Mo" alot like they all know you :-p, guess I'd have to think about it but I'll almost def. do it if we can find an easy way to set the structure up (or something similar) online

Sorry guys, but the marketplace isn't here for booking action for or against players, aside from being allowed to directly invest in a players' buy-in.

This is why its not a free market.

And the most you can do is laugh at the scum making packages like this and hope the fish investors wise up.

Do not call the marketplace a free market. It isn't even close.

In a free market, when you posted this ludicrous markup, klink or someone could have come in and said, I will offer this for 1.23:1! and stolen your action! And then you could have countered until it reaches a proper/fair price representing your true ROI in this tournament.

the main source of education for this market regarding your hu capabilities would be your recent hu results. you've blocked those and haven't posted any graphs in here, so it's actually pretty hard to gauge.

I'm one of the most transparent people possible, I have a PG&C thread where I post my results EV included every single day + frequent updated graphs for the months/year. Fwiw I'm up over a quarter million at cash this year + an established reg at the 500s on stars (not easy to do by any means) esp. with having just been back for a bit over a month. I think of all people playing this I'm one of the most qualified given the structure.

But again wtf does this have to do with anything lol, I know everybody on the list of buyers personally except 2 of them, everybody here knows me and my results or they wouldn't be buying, nobody stumbles on this thread randomly and is like OoOoO lets send this guy some money. People obviously think the value is good, your assuming they are too dumb to make good decisions on their own...?? Whatever long rant again, point is its all out there, I assume most people know my results, those who don't still have a right to buy without looking, everyone has the prerogative to buy or pass on buying so I just don't get what others coming into the thread trying to berate/discourage/"educate"/etc are doing, it just seems super out of place and condescending that think I can't set a fair price and ALL of the buyers can't gauge a fair price. Again I will point to the fact that it sold out so quick + had a huge excess in demand to tell say that obviously the people who truly determine the prices (the buyers) think what I'm offering is more than fair as well

If we were allowed to sell other peoples' action, there would be no reason to make posts like klink has ITT.

however, as boba pointed out, this isn't allowed, so as a potential investor it hurts me that packages like this sell obviously. If crossingbooking was permitted, the price of action would drop a ton, but as it the only way to try and get the market to begin to adjust is to convince people not to buy crappy deals like this. (imo)

I know it seems confrontational and personal etc., but the fact is the structure of the 2p2 marketplace is already rigged in the favor of sellers, so there's not much to be done really.

Hey PrimordialAA,

The fact you are a husng reg and have these results makes this package even more scummy. You should understand how thin edges are in hu sngs. You have a large sample.

I'm not wasting time doing the math, but I can estimate using numbers I trust from zeejustin in this thread for an online tourney with more than half as much juice and roughly 1/4 the field size.

Compare it to the people that cashed last year here

to get an idea for the field size, and field strength.

And see the turbo structure here,

I mean ****, here is an entrants list from last year.

http://www.wsop.com/pdfs/reports/12112/$10K_HEADS_UP_1st_ROUND_MATCHUPS.pdf

Would love to see you how to, with 6% juice, come up with a nice ROI distribution of you vs the field you think that means that your 1.25:1 markup would even be the equivalent of a break-even sweat. (IE you benefit completely !!!! investors just risk their hard earned money for a neutral EV gamble)

You won't do that though, because I think you are smart enough to realize you don't have a 10% edge in every match you play FWIW: not knowing about your live game, I'd wager you are probably in the 15-25th percentile in this field. So I'm not even hating on your game trustworthiness or ability. If people want to degen, degen. But the audacity to claim all this bs about free market and meaningless results really makes me sick. It may fool marketplace idiots into investing, but it makes anyone that understands poker cringe.

This is disgusting. The marketplace could be something beautiful. People pitching in together to get into events they can't afford. Everyone gets nice sweats! Instead, its getting used by people just trying to profit off of the naive investors. I love this forum. Its just wrong.

Show some math, please. Some GENEROUS estimates even. You can't even come up with something even remotely BREAKEVEN for investors in a RAKEFREE tournament I bet.

I mean, I don't even care that you sell, do your hustle, its not for me though. But to spout off arrogantly, "The market speaks! Free Market!!!" like many idiots I've heard. No, shut your mouth. Its not a free market. If it was a true free market, you would have to already register for the event. Then offer a price selling your action. When people started buying, smarter players like Vanessa/Jason already have would undercut you, and your scheme would be foiled.

Due to laws/2p2 rules it isn't even close to a free market, and it never will be. To brag about results/the speed of which it sold out is just so stupid it makes me sick. You didn't set a fair price obviously. Just because people are degenerate and like sweats, doesn't mean your price is fair. A fair price would be a price in which both investors and horses stand to profit (ideally about 50-50, although that's debatable can switch in other ways) That just is obviously not even close to the case here.

Just for fun. Lets assume you are 60% vs the field round 1. You drew a fish! 128 people! You are a great player! HU tourneys get much tougher as they go on as its much more likely the better players win etc. So I picked 50 players from entrants list last year. What do you think your avg win % is vs this field? Feel free to answer individually, answer net ROI. Keep in mind 6% juice. Keep in mind that when charging an absurdly high markup, you are implying that the investment is PROFITABLE for the investors. So a breakeven investment would be sort of a slap in face to investors. They get to flip coins while letting you play 10ks gamble turbo hu sngs. Cool?

Alexander Venovski, Randy Lew, Stephen Chidwick, Anthony Gregg, Jake Cody, John Juanda, David Benyamine, Ashton Griffin, Douglas Polk , Moshin Charania, Markus Gonsalves, Ben Lamb, Dan Colman, Harry Kaczka, Jason Mo, Max Steinberg, Sam Stein, Alex Keating, Justin Bonomo, Andrew Robl, Jim Collopy, Amit Makhija, Jon Jaffee, Bertrand Grospellia, Darren Elias, Tom Marchese, Scott Clements, Brian Hastings, Vanessa Selbst, Emil Patel, Melanie Weisner, Ludovic Lacay, Shaun Deeb, Phil Ivey, Paul Volpe, David Sands, Aaron Jones, Jason Mercier, Isaac Haxton, Yevgeniy Timoshenko, Eric Froehlich, Jason Somerville, Dan Kelly, Ben Tollerene, Steve Odwyer, Ankush Mandavia, Antonio Esfandiari, Jason Koon, Leo Wolpert, David Benefield

i dont think these are the 50 best players in the field either. Just 50 players I am pretty sure primordial would know.

Just FYI it's well within forum rules to call out scams:

Complaints are legitimate when you are basically scamming people out of money. The fact that you sold so fast doesn't mean anything except that this forum is filled with gamblers and absolute naive investors.

Have you done any math yourself or just randomly hating?

HUmtts is pretty easy to do the math.

He needs ~4% avg roi vs the field for it to be breakeven

A bit under 7% for it to be an even split between backer and horse.

You might not think he is good enough but acting like this is highway robbery is silly. Esp since youre throwing around numbers like 10%

The lock thing does bother me though

? I did not do any math, I said that in the OP. I, however, am capable of doing estimates and extrapolating.

I gave him 60% in round 1 and then gave him a list of names after that when combined, that I think even after 60% in round 1, would mean the deal isn't that good.

There is no way I'd waste time actually solving the exact problem with rake and payouts. I don't trust your math, either. I am basing my estimates off of "any EV gained has to be lost somewhere else"

Starting off Jack Effel and CO taking 6% from everyone.

Then I can look at field and think how many people have to lose at such absurd EV to not only just account for our hero Primordial AA's 25% but then the 25 or so or more players who are undoubtedly better than him and he has in the 48% or so to beat.

I thought it was pretty obvious the 10% number I threw out was a "joke" to try to bait him to show some math to back up his ROI claim. (I view any MP post as basically "I have X ROI in this tourney! claim!" or they are just a scumbag lying/decieving/stealing or both.

But hey, he is a 500 hyper reg! He grinds out 1-2% ROI + rakeback on stars playing 20bb poker! Definitely gonna be worth 1.25:1 in WSOP 10k. In fact, if he's 1.25:1 what do you think the other 50 are? Man everyone in
every tourney should just sell at 1.25:1 and then they just play for glory!!!!

Almost anyone that is worth buying at 1.25:1 in a 10k hu would never have to sell to strangers on 2p2 to play the 10k hu, they would have made so much money playing hunl by now, that they would be better off swapping/buying into the tourney themselves with their massive edge!

This is obviously untrue. If he has 4% avg roi vs the field he very likely has a negative ROI in the elite 8.

I get what you're trying to say, but that doesn't work in any tournament, least of all a HU shoot-out.

You don't play 7 matches every time + what nsb said.

Why are we even bothering doing the math? The person so confident in his skills/edge that he is posting asking people to invest thousands of dollars in him at a 25% premium, surely has done the necessary due diligence on his estimated ROI/edge in the format!

Right? No way someone would ask strangers to invest thousands of dollars in him promising them a profitable investment without even understanding what his edge would have to be in every area of the tournament for the investment to be profitable? No way anyone with character would try to take people's hard earned money for his own personal profit/gambling! He is a lock poker representative! I'm sure he will see these posts and give a detailed google spreadsheet breakdown on why he's profitable at 1.25:1 showing us the correct math. I'm just waiting for him to see the posts!

As a member of the naive investor community, I agree w BackRaiseNYC and Vanessa. 1.25 for 10k HU can't be right and thread like this influence others to sell at similar MU for same event when it's out of line. Any1 should have the right to speak out if MU is a rip off to warn investor and have effects on future thread

Would be a fair price if you accepted lock money.

You're crazy if you think he can be 60% against a random player in this field and this isn't a good deal

The rest of your post is just rambling
If his win% was to stay constant at any point in the tourney he would need much less to be breakeven. It's below 3.5 because of compounding. The first match is a 10k he plays 100%, the second is a 20k match he plays 55% of the time, etc.

I guessed at 4% because it's a waste of time to randomly assign a skill level to each player in the field and run a simulation to figure out what the exact % is. It's true that if there are a whole bunch of players with 60+% wrs against the field a 3.5% ROI would do terribly because of the tougher later match.

But buying action in primo is obviously a statement that you think primo is fairly skilled relative to the field.

One thing I didn't consider is the payout structure, if it was WTA what I said above is valid. Not sure exactly how much impact the earlier payouts have.
See above. If he did play 7 matches every time I'd say it's a massive steal at 1.25

+1


Primordial, are you still a lock poker affiliate and try to find new players to deposit on there?

I gave him a hyptothetical scenario that he drew a fish he was 60% vs, and then to set his ROI vs the remaining tougher player pool I gave him.

If he did that out, he wouldn't be a good buy at 1.25, I believe. (didn't do math just extrapolating /guessing off of zeej math and my perception of his win % vs a lot of top players)

You clearly have reading comprehension problems.

You are so wrong too. The second match IS NOT a 20k he plays 55% of the time. Thats not how tournaments work. You are an idiot. Stop posting.

His win rate will obviously go down as tournament progresses. This is common sense. A good players win % breakdown through the rounds would be something like. 55-54-54-53-52-51 etc. On average. Common sense. He isn't even going to be close to some of the top nl players in the field.

I mean you also don't understand even the start of the math necessary to solve this problem, yet speak with such confidence. Did you even look at the payouts of the tournament?

I guess there is no cross booking but I'd happily take 11-9 on the primo not making it out of the first round...in theory.

unres 1.5%

meh 1.25:1 is obviously way too high but people saying that because OP charged that much he should have analyzed it and made sure his roi was higher etc. or it's a scam is just wrong. If he knows he can sell out at 1.25 in an hour why wouldn't he do that? It's not scamming, it's selling for what people will buy for. That said yeah allow crossbooking/shorting after packages are sold out there's really no reason not to.