is unrealzeal galen and attempting to take heat off himself by posting a bunch of nonsensical stuff

Daut, CompleteDonk and Galen have clearly made well-thought out and mostly, if not entirely, correct posts in this thread. Galen seems to be one of the more intelligent posters on 2+2 and takes the time to explain his thought processes regarding how he comes to decisions in game and in regards to marketplace activities to both those who deserve a response and those who don't. He's a Stanford guy that has demonstrated in many threads that he has taken the time to do mathematical analysis on blind structures, field sizes, etc and how they correlate to potential ROIs. He has a belief that he's better than most everyone in live tournament play and has results that show that it may be true, time will tell. He believes that a large % of the ROI edge he has comes from late game play. He has a bunch of money and will likely play optimally in those late game spots where others may not, further increasing his ROI. The guy is beyond confident in his game and I think that is an absolutely huge factor people need to look at, and they need to look at it as a positive. For the life of me, I just can't imagine a guy who I would rather invest in than someone who has obviously done his homework and is always exceptionally confident come game time (this is huge, a 30% roi player is absolutely, positively not a 30% ROI player each and every time they play a tourney, they may be a 70% ROI type guy while playing well/having money/just received coaching/feeling confident etc and a -10% ROI while feeling down about their game/broke/haven't been studying/girlfriend just left them, etc). The first ~150 responses in this thread were excellent and I really feel I learned something from them. Many of the last 30 or so have been an absolute waste of time and I really hope that the mods will consider deleting them. There are far far too many threads on 2+2 that are excellent and could serve as great models of how threads should be handled that are then just absolutely destroyed by idiots unnecessarily interjecting.

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One thing I will agree with is that Galen is one of the smartest ppl in the forum. He is way smarter than me it's not really close, he has owned me in a lot of threads so he is the most qualified to prove me wrong

thread/ its's over

Last thing I am gonna say about this

I should have called it the streak effect but its just a mathematical representation of the fact that the opt out clause means you are taking every game when the horse is playing his very worst and only some of the games he plays his very best...the effect might seem trivial but it's not...over a very small sample it virtually erases your profit...you need a certain number of games just to smooth that out...even a great player like GH needs at least 16 games

Now the problem is that after so many games he will be in profit close to 100%, so we will get the back half of our investment back with 0 profit...you can call that a friendly no interest loan, but if you are serious about playing this market, you would call it a 50% reduction in fund ROI

Also, the clause says the fund can dissolve when the horse is in profit which means you still have to cover MU...this is an ROI catastrophe for you and whatever the MU is you should prob add 25%

Stick with your multiple universes argument IMO.

<3

unrealzeal how many times have you said itt that it will be your last post itt? I count at least twice.

you know, you don't need to claim for a 3rd time to not make another post... you just need to stop posting itt.

Payments?? I can't DM u on twitter because u unfollowed me

Hey, sorry I haven't updated this since I finished, played the main, then immediately the bellagio 5k and ceasar's 1k.

It was an up and down series for me, I felt like I built a stack in almost every event that I played, but couldn't win any allins deep in things when I needed to. I didn't really anticipate this thread blowing up like this, and I will admit that I felt a little extra motivation to go out and win something for the package, and I wasn't able to really enjoy running really well and binking the 50k satty as much as I would have liked, because it was the one thing (at that point) that I played that wasn't on the package.

Also, losing KK < AQ for half the chips in play 4 handed before getting 3rd in the Venetian 10k hurt a lot too, winning that would've made my package a smashing success and would've given me a lot of satisfaction.


Overall, I cashed 4 out of 21 events that I played on the package (5 of 26 overall):
-3rd in the Venetian 10k for $51,400
-40th in the 5k NLHE for $20,325
-40-somethingth in the 3k 6max for $7,643
-30-somethingth in the 1.5k single draw for $2,593

I also skipped 24 events, mostly due to going deep in stuff. Also, I refunded markup in the 10k Venetian down to 1.1, since it got drastically fewer runners than I anticipated when I made this schedule.


I sold 50 shares in my package for a total of $29,527 and the total return was $24,917.

So the total return per share is $498.36. Since I knew there would be refunds, I only collected $550 per share instead of $590.05, so the total cash refund is $448.31 per share, which I'll just round up to $450.



PM me to arrange payments.

Also, with regard to this thread most of what I had to say was summed up in this post on page 1, but I will further say that I would wholly endorse this entire place becoming an ACTUAL regulated marketplace, but I don't know what sort of licenses you need for that or whatever.

If people don't like my markups, they should be able to come here and offer better prices, and so people can buy my action off of them instead of me, and I would be forced to lower my prices. Of course, they'd have to escrow, and there would need to be a whole system for that.

Also, I think this should only be allowed on a package basis - i.e. you can't come in here and short one event only, you'd have to short shares of the entire package. This protects sellers from having all their good values gobbled up by buyers. Otherwise, the clearly best solution is to run it exactly like a real futures market, and have bid prices and ask prices and things like that, but that would require a lot of regulation and a lot of work.


I still think that the ROI discussion is one that I'd be really interested to have, but I imagine it'll probably happen offline more than online. There are a lot of really smart people that disagree with me, but I know for a fact that I can mathematically prove a lot of faults in their arguments, and I imagine that there is a lot of stuff that I am convinced of that can be disproven as well.

Im sure they would be interested in these findings. Maybe if you share them people will come round to your way of thinking.

Galen is not being unethical IMO because his clause is spelled out and he is free to charge whatever MU the market will bear...if people buy it it's fine

It's actually extremely interesting math...if the horse quits when he is behind you don't lose anything but if he quits when ahead he's gaining some of investor equity...I find it interesting that it's unethical to quit when ahead but OK when behind...conventional staking wisdom says otherwise!

Maybe as makeup for this abomination of a pkg Galen can do an ROI vs Field size stickie