FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Hi all, I am accepting investments into a bankroll for all of my poker play in 2014. It has been 10 years since I won the Main Event, and 21 years since I started playing poker. I still love the game, and am looking forward to a great year in 2014, and I would like you to be a part of that.

Since winning the Main Event in 2004, I have typically spent my summer at the Rio, playing 20-25 bracelet events, as well as other MTTs, satellites, and cash games. I have then spent the rest of the year with 60% of my time at home with my family and 40% on the road traveling around the U.S. and Internationally. From 2004-2011 I represented PokerStars, and much of my travel was international. Since the beginning of 2011, I have traveled mostly within the U.S., with my schedule being dictated primarily by where I book my poker training seminars.

In both cases, the rest of the year (that is, the part not at the WSOP in Las Vegas) has consisted of about 20-25 “major” tournaments, a handful of smaller events, and cash games.

Why am I selling pieces of my action?

Since I no longer receive a guaranteed source of income, my wife has become more and more nervous about me playing poker. Although I have a 21 year track record of winning results in both tournaments and cash games, she is not a poker player, and is worried that I will start losing. And without a paycheck to immediately recoup any losses, she gets anxious. So, to make her happy, I have chosen to sell off a big piece of my bankroll, so that the downside risk is a lot more limited. Even though this move is costing me EV, it is making up for that fact by providing marriage EV.

Prior to the 2004 Main Event, I had done something similar. I sold pieces of my action to a group of about 18 individuals, who bought 1-10 shares each, while I bought a much larger portion. We did this for a series of 4 consecutive 6-month periods, ending in the spring of 2004. For the first three periods, the share price went up by about 20% total. In the fourth period, the share price went up by about 6000%. Since then, I have played entirely on my own bankroll the large majority of the time. But now I wish to set up a deal similar to the one I played under from mid-2002 to mid-2004.

Some of the details

The six-month deals I played under in the early part of the century were set up so that if the bankroll lost money for the period, all investors lost equally. That is, if there were a total of 100 shares, and the net result at the end of the period was -$300, then each share lost $3, my shares included. So, on the losing side, I am at exactly the same risk as the other investors. If we were ahead at the end of the period, then as the player I received 35% of the net win, and the remaining 65% was then divided equally per share. Thus, if we had a period ending at +$300, then I would have received $105 as the player, then the remaining $195 would have been divided out at $1.95 per share. I like this kind of deal, as there is a finite period (in this case, the end of 2014), and I am incentivized properly. On the downside, I have every incentive to not chase losses, as further losses will result in direct harm to my own money, not just somebody else’s. But I am simultaneously being rewarded for winning play, and for the time and effort I put into it, not just the money I invested. Also, as compared to most deals, your money is not going to just have one shot at a win, but can potentially be turned over many times. The more we win, the more we can play, as well as play in larger events and games, which means we can win even more. Investors will have a few dozen chances at a huge score, and lots of time for the luck to even out a little bit (not that we’re ever going to get close to the “long run” in a statistical sense, but 40-50 tournaments and dozens of cash game sessions is a lot closer to the long run than investing in a single event). Because of the turnover of the bankroll, there is no way to do this deal using the concept of markup that I know most of you are used to seeing in this forum.

For 2014, I would like to offer to investors a similar deal. Since the time period is longer, it seems fair that the player share would go up, so I am setting it at 40%. That is, if we win, I get 40% of the profit as the player, and the investors (including me) will split the 60%. If we lose, all investors will lose equally according to the number of shares they purchased.

I am looking to raise a total bankroll of at least $100K, and shares will be sold at a price of $1000 per unit. I will be buying at least 20 shares myself. Also, no expenses will be deducted from the bankroll, and are entirely up to me to pay myself. Many of my expenses are comped anyway, and it would be a huge inconvenience to have to keep the records as to which expenses were comped, and which should come out of the bankroll. I also don’t want to hassle with things like if I were to credit-card roulette for a meal, how much should be charged to the bankroll (win or lose). Heck, I don’t even want to hassle with something like having an investor feel I should have chosen a less expensive flight, hotel, or meal. The non-payment of expenses out of the bankroll is also part of the reason I increased the player share to 40%. As it is now, investors will be able to participate in tournaments and cash games played around the country at no extra expense above the buy-in.

At the end of the year, investors will be paid right away according to the results achieved. If we are ahead, you will have your entire investment returned, plus your share of the profits. If we are behind, you will have the remaining portion of your investment returned, if any. If the profit is significant, I may require you to provide me with your SSN and other information for tax purposes. Any profit you make will be your responsibility with respect to taxes, as I will only be filing my share of the total profit to the IRS and state tax authorities. If they ask me why it was reported online that I won $200,000, but am claiming to have won less on my tax return, the situation will be explained, and the proper information will be provided to these agents (i.e., names and information about the investors who shared in the profit). So, if you intend to try to avoid paying taxes on money won, you should not choose to participate in this investment.

If you are seriously interested

Please send me a PM here on 2+2 with your email address and real name. I will contact you by email, answer any questions you may have, and discuss payment options.

I will be emailing a report to the investors about once a month throughout the year, with results as well as stories and hand histories from the games I competed in. During the WSOP, report emails will come more often, about once every week or two. Back in the investment deal from 2002-04, the investors were all very happy with the final result, as you would imagine. However, many of them later told me that even though I had been winning for them, the main reason they continued their investment was the fact that they really enjoyed the monthly email reports. While I can’t promise anything, I will try to make them fact-filled and entertaining.

Thanks, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Just to be clear on the math - Say I buy 10 shares of 1k each, and you finish 2014 with 200k from the initial 100k investment. 40k of profit would go to you, plus any additional amount you invest in yourself, and I would be returned 10k + 6k (60k remaining profit *10%).

On the flip side, if you ended 2014 with 50k from the initial 100k investment, I would be returned 5k (10k - (50k*10%)). Is this correct?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

rough estimate for number of tournaments you plan to play and the buyin ranges for these? similar to previous schedules?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Does this include online?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

To rephrase your hypothetical. The total starting bankroll is 100K, of which you put up 10K. At the end of the year, the total bankroll is 200K, for a profit of 100K. In this hypo, you would receive 16K, your 10K investment, plus 10% of 60% of the profit.

In the second hypothetical, starting conditions are the same, but we end the year with a total bankroll of 50K, for a loss of 50K. In this hypo, you would have 5K returned to you out of your 10K investment. I would also lose half of my investment in this second scenario.

On the downside, all investors are equal, and lose equally, including me. On the upside, I receive 40% of the final profit as compensation for time and effort as the player, and the remaining 60% is paid equally to all shares.

Thanks for your interest and questions.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

My plan will be to play a schedule that is expected to be similar to what I've done in the last several years. That would include the 20-25 bracelet events, plus another couple of dozen major events around the U.S. and Canada. Plus smaller events, satellites, and cash games whenever possible.

I am also considering playing some of the local home games here in Raleigh when I am not on the road. If I do that, it would mean 2-5 and 5-10 NLH cash games, maybe some 2-5 PLO.

I would only play in tournaments and cash games that were appropriate for the bankroll at that moment. For example, if the bankroll is in the ballpark of 100K, even up to 200K or more, I would not enter the 50K Player's Championship at the WSOP this summer. But if I had already hit some big wins by that time, and the bankroll were large enough, then I would enter such an event. Same concept with cash games. I'm not going to sit down in a cash game where a single buyin is too large for the bankroll. The only exception to this would be if the bankroll had diminished to a relatively small total, in which case I would still be using it to enter things like HPT and WSOP-C main events and the like for amounts like $500-2000, even if such an amount now represented 10% or more of the remaining bankroll.

Thanks for your interest and questions.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Hadn't thought about it really, since I live in Raleigh, NC, and have no intention of setting up an official address outside the U.S. so as to allow myself to play on Stars/Tilt. And I don't have any plans to travel to NV or NJ just to grind online. I could see playing online if I am in those states for other reasons, and have time in the room. In such a case, I presume the investors would want me to use the bankroll and work for them, rather than use my own money instead, and as such I would play for them. But I don't see this as being of any significance unless something changes and online poker becomes available to me in other locations.

Thanks for your interest and question.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Your post is fairly useless without mentioning how much money you've made over the past few years playing this schedule. How can anyone seriously assess this without some sort of guide?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Was interested, but don't like the idea of cash games thrown into the mix since we can't track that.

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Not sure if serious (imagine squinting Fry image here)

Here's a link to Hendon Mob for me. http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=7955

Won about $2.5M since Main Event in 2004, including those 4 HPT main events in 2012, which is quite a bit more than I've paid in buyins, since except for ~5 entries into the WSOP $50K Players Championship, I have hardly ever played a high roller. No proof I can direct you to as to my winning stats for cash games, so you'll have to trust me, or not.

Thanks for your interest and question.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

I understand. You'll have to trust me, or not. The first time I did something like this was the start of the deal that ended when I won the ME. In the first half-year deal, for the last half of 2002, many of the investors did not want to include online play, as it was still pretty new, and they weren't sure they could trust it. For that period, I lost a little bit in the live cash games and tournaments, and won big online, and felt bad that my investors weren't sharing in that. For the next 3 half-year deals, we added in the online play. For similar reasons, I prefer to include all poker play in the current deal.

Also, if the cash games looked good, and the single-table satellites or whatever else I could choose did not look as good, I would not want to feel obligated to play the inferior tournament game. This way, I just choose the best available form of poker that is not too big for the bankroll, and play that.

Thanks for your interest and question.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

phew he said he was covering extra expenses himself.
don't like paying for a screw job and not enjoying it.

I do wish you luck Greg, but i don't think this type of deal would work for many anymore. especially since you said you will do what you feel is best as opposed to a set schedule. you are right it does require a lot of trust. We have no way of tracking those results though.


Edit: Hendon Mob link don't work

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

this is a terrible deal for any investor.

if you do manage to sell out ill buy more action against at the same rate.

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

How about selling every time you wanna play a tournament? like the majority is doing in the staking forum. if you are planning for wsop, include the 20-25 tournaments and sell them with a markup. make a list for the next month.

it is more reliable. we can track you. but updating 1-2 times a week during the wsop is pretty thin too.

i would not include cashgame. you are talking about 2/5 games and a 50k championship event in the same sentence. this is huge.

I'd imagine u have great credit. Just ask one of the phils for a kenish stake. Have someone give u a 100k on a 50/50 split.

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

http://i.imgur.com/Qk3l55g.jpg

It's an idiosyncratic package being sold at extremely high markup. Why wouldn't he be serious about wanting more details?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Quite simply, I do not want to go through the hassle of selling a piece in each and every event I play all year long. The plan here is to go through the process once, and just lump it all together.

Plus, at the WSOP, I really don't know which events I'm going to play. Just because I really want to play in event #27 doesn't mean I will. I might still be in #24, and therefore unavailable to enter. And then I have to send everybody's money back. And then I end up playing #28, which was low on my priority list, because I just got eliminated from #24. But now I don't have time to sell for that.

I understand that this is not the typical package being sold on 2+2. But why does that matter? Evaluate whether or not you are interested. If yes, feel free to ask questions, and then decide. If no, just don't invest.

Thanks for your interest and questions.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Are you playing even if you don't sell all shares? Minimum amount of shares sold to play?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

To: Greg

Is there any agreement btw you and investor? or it will be just a trust and gentleman firm handshake?

Regards,
Zhan

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Hey Greg, count me in. I like the simplicity of this deal and see your function as a poker player like a public company that makes widgets. I believe the company can be successful and I am buying stock and holding it for 1 year. I trust the company to be responsible with my money and I will get regular status reports on how the company is doing. The last thing I would want to do is have to buy in and out based on every nuanced decision that the company makes. I understand this is riskier than leaving the money in 1 year CD and locking in that 1% return but no risk no reward. And you have shown that you can win big.
I already have a job and this is an investment of my surplus capital where I have a smart and skilled player that I trust on reputation alone putting my money to work. The only decision I had to make is in or out. Now get out there and win FossilMan!!!:cool:

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Do you have an official deadline for how long you will accept investors? Hypothetically, what will you do if you receive only 50k in investments -- is the plan scrapped or are you willing to come up with the additional money above and beyond your original expected buy-in?

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

Hey there Greg

I may be interested in this opportunity.

Would there be accompanying legal documentation?

Can't pm as I've just joined

Please email me at apolo33@me.com
Thanks
Aaron

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

If I don't generate a total investment pool of 100K or more, I will still go forward with the lesser amount. This would create a large increase in both the upside and downside potential for all investors. That is, the smaller the pool, the more likely we go busto and lose it all, including going busto before the year is over. However, if things go well, then everybody is going to get a much larger return on their investment.

If the pool is smaller, investors will be given the option of pulling out and having all of their money returned if they do not wish to move forward with this higher risk, higher reward scenario.

Thanks for your questions and interest.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Re: FossilMan selling shares, all of 2014!
 

The details will be presented to all investors by email. Hadn't planned on signing a contract. But if trust is a concern, I did pay out over $2M to investors in 2004. Pretty good evidence that I would do so again, but if you are concerned too much, this is probably not a good investment choice for you.

Thanks for your questions and interest.

Greg Raymer (FossilMan)