This is the $11 1r 1a. villain is running 40/6 over more than 100 hands with an aggression factor of 2.6. he made a huge 3b with AA earlier, SB vs BTN. post-flop in a hand vs me earlier he checked back top two on a AJx flop after flatting me pre in position, he then bet small on the turn and larger on the river.

my image is fairly aggressive, running about 20/17 over about 100 hands at this table but haven't done anything crazy.

i guess it's a simple stove calculation, but how often does he have various parts of his range?

PokerStars, $400/800 Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

Board:
kohtao123 (UTG+1): $34,420
schIizzer (MP1): $5,825
ABD124 (MP2): $79,825
Tom Lumb (CO): $25,920
leeroy8106 (Button): $6,177
Mrva88 (SB): $40,648
Internett93o (BB): $43,483
zedveron (UTG): $40,148

Dealt to zedveron T K

Pre-flop:
zedveron raises to $1,760, kohtao123 calls $1,760, (6 folds)

Flop: ($5,320) 8 9 5 (2 Players)
zedveron bets $2,660, kohtao123 raises to $32,585 and is all-in, ....

the first thing i do is utter the american equivalent of bollux

I think I'd fold pretty quickly here and feel comfortable about it with these stacks. The villain just put 40BB's into the pot, and from what you say about his previous plays, it seems he's playing a bit scared with good hands. That would make me believe he's got something pretty good here, but is too scared to be sucked out on and thus wants you to go away.

With the second nut flush draw, some backdoors and overcards, you definitely have a lot of equity against the villain's range, but it simply isn't worth the risk in this spot, being 45BB deep after you fold, imho.

V

I'd have a pretty hard time folding here, I think. I mean, I guess it comes down to how live your overcards are and how often villain has nfd vs. other flush draws. Actually, I think I'd def call, because a spazzy villain could totally have lower flush draws or some straight draws or something, and may push top or middle pair in addition to his low two pair hands (I think it pretty unlikely villain shows up w/ a set or better; you see villains jam those but mostly, I'd say, on 3 flush rather than 2 flush boards).

i think u can find a better spot to get such a large amount of bbs in...

i think the main problem i have with calling is that i think he plays differently a lot of the hands we're in good shape against, such as smaller FDs and weak pairs etc. if he's this passive preflop then chances are he will play the weaker part of his range passivley on the flop also.

What kind of argument is that? How do you know?

Here's what, near as I can tell, would be a near worst case scenario

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

57,420 games 0.002 secs 28,710,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 9d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.308% 42.26% 00.05% 24266 27.00 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 57.692% 57.65% 00.05% 33100 27.00 { 55+, AdQd, AdJd, A9s, QdJd, 98s, 76s }


42.5% is, if I did my math right, what we need to break even if we call the shove. And this is pretty close to what I would consider the maximum nittiness of this guys "shove 3x pot range." As soon as you start making a slightly more optimistic spaz range, your equity moves up pretty quickly. And this guy flats everything pre and shoved 3x pot on the flop, so I would think it reasonably likely something crazy or stupid is going on. I think there's plenty of justification to call.

you left out JT which we basically crush and 67 which we got outs vs so it's pretty much the same, it's pretty close to good odds but I think OP means he thinks v would flat his draws and shove the sets/overpairs but meh i don't buy it

agree with this

This comment infuriates me in its total lack of meaning. Even if you're right, which you can't know, it's outside the scope of the discussion. When was the question ever asked "Can I find better spots?" Why would anyone come to a forum and ask you to answer a question you couldn't know the answer to? What if a terrible, -EV player was the one posting the hand? Would you tell them to look for better spots because there aren't likely to be better ones? Are you saying the hand is +EV but just really thin? Or just that it isn't worth bothering finding out whether it's +EV or not?

If you want to say it's too thin an edge, prove that the edge is thin first or that it even exists, or give some better indication of what constitutes too thin an edge. If you think it's -EV prove it with some math or something. But don't fall back on some asinine platitude that argues for nothing other than the end of discussion. It's not like you can prove that there will be better spots, or that the fact of there being better spots means that you should pass on this one, you're just throwing around tautology.

i think zed gets it and yea i'd make a longer post too others

pageup ru mad

Basically this comes down to whether or not you want to take a more or less break-even EV spot to double up or bust. If you think you can use your still comfortable stack better later, you'd fold, if you feel you're not getting any traction or that doubling your stack would give you a massive edge, you call.
If stacks were half, it would be an easy call, if stacks were double, it would be an easy fold.

Interesting how the really gray areas create some of the most active and emotional discussions

V

Saying you can find a better spot seems like a cop-out and saying it is just as overused as exploit