As played I don't mind the check raise on the flop especially if we can get hands that could theoretically counterfeit us like A5 or A9 to fold. Can go either way on the turn as we do want to deny the right price for flushdraws to continue but our hand is the weakest "good" hand we can have here and most good 9x and middle pairs (which will be the other part of our opponent's range) will just check back.
Don't think we can fold here. We have at least 40% equity against our opponent's jam range here as it is likely to be weighted towards flushdraws.
Your bet size on the turn is pot committing (its about 33% of your stack). I would think about how much I want to put in with a weak two pair anyway...
I probably wouldn't c/r the flop but lead out about 1/2 pot then see if villain raises (I would then call down).
As played I would let go on the turn unless I have a read or something. It looks like some kind of 64 or 86s that got there. Consider too that villain might be struggling with a monster or double draw and is thinking about shoving on the flop. And remember that your turn bet looks like you can't fold so villain's shove is likely very strong. If you do fold here then don't do this again. Use pot control management especially if you are up against another big stack.
I dont mind a c/r on the flop to win it right there. The turn sizing is too big (70% of the pot), both because, as Mr Rick pointed out, it commits quite a lot of your stack (which therefore makes V's raise look really strong), but also its quite exploitable as its a strange bet sizing for a made straight, and, as such, narrows your range to more vulnerable hands.
I would bet smaller, say 45-50% on the turn and fold to a raise.
I like everything you did here. Super gross spot now, I have no idea what to do now. I don't hate calling especially if you think there's any chance he might have some ridiculous tarp with AA or something. Feels like a spot where you should try to get some kind of live read to aid your decision - if you feel like he's really struggling with what to do on the flop virtually no hands improved on the turn so maybe he's just panic shoving an overpair or something like a9. Pretty far-fetched I guess but it's not like he should play any hand this way. IDK, I think I station these spots pretty often but could be convinced it's a fold, gross spot anyway.
nh. With your turn sizing, don't think b/f is a great option. We are prob closer to the bottom of our range w this line, and if this guy is never shoving A9-K9 combos, prob not in great shape. Kind of an interesting spot, because we are b/f here sometimes w some 1pr fd type combos, but think sizing should be a lot smaller.
Thanks everyone. I ended up calling because I couldn't see this guy calling a check raise on the flop with a gut shot unles it was a gut shot and flush draw but then I also don't think he would have struggled with the call on the flop. He ended up having 77 for a turned set. Pretty sick and was wondering if there was a way I could have avoided going broke. Almost certain he calls the flop if I bet out instead of check raise, but then he still jams the turn when I bet again. I might find a fold in that situation
Yeah that's just unlucky, I definitely don't fault you for going broke there. Whatever villain has is just nonsensical and it's hard to come up with almost any hands that beat you that he could've played this way except for a few combos of sets, the more I think about this hand the more I actually want to call this.