Villain seems reggish plays 8 tables from abi 11$ to 109$

What do you think about our river decision amout of villain boats seems very limited the way he played. On the other hand its pretty hard for him to check shove worse for value and turn weird hands into bluffs?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37634821

UTG+1: 4,958 (49.6 bb)
UTG+2: 4,915 (49.2 bb)
MP1: 5,797 (58 bb)
MP2: 3,302 (33 bb)
Hero (MP3): 5,000 (50 bb)
CO: 8,011 (80.1 bb)
BTN: 5,662 (56.6 bb)
SB: 5,853 (58.5 bb)
BB: 5,938 (59.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A T
2 folds, MP1 raises to 235, MP2 folds, Hero calls 235, 3 folds, BB calls 135

Flop: (863) J Q Q (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets 354, BB folds, MP1 calls 354

Turn: (1,571) T (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: (1,571) 3 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets 1,075, MP1 raises to 5,196 and is all-in, Hero ???

Easy bet/f


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I would often check back flop
Std to fold as played
Mp1 will have tighter range pre thus narrower bluff range
Its a concern that you're capped but not a huge deal in $27mtt.

Tough - What boats is he playing this way? I feel QQ, QJ, are just not risking not getting two streets of value by not leading river, but river raise bluffs tend to be pretty rare.

I think it's probably a sigh fold, but I'm not sure I ever find it in game.

we need to win around 50% of the time to breakeven otr

There are some hands he shoves for value in his range that we beat ie: worse flushes, Qx, straights

If we also put bluffs in his range river is a clear call.

Once we check behind ott our hand looks weak, if he has a boat I doubt he checks the river and risks missing value

I can't think of the last time I saw someone smash an all-in there full-ring, mid-stakes MTT and not have a monster. Sure, maybe there are some donks out there who are going to make a ridiculous bluff 10% of the time but this is an easy bet/fold spot. Any kind of Q10, 1010, QJ, JJ hand would be played almost the exact same way for mid-stakes noobs.