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Midstakes MTT Discussion and analysis of midstakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-14-2017, 12:36 PM   #1
WorldResident
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Turn my hand into a bluf?

Hey guys,

Hopefully you can help me out here. Do you guys think I should turn my hand into a bluf on the turn or river? I am never going to win if I check on 3 streets because the majority of his 3betting range will hit this board. But if he checks on the flop and turn he never has a big hand since the board is this wet. And of course he would want to get more value.

Before I talk further of the hands I am putting him on, I will talk a bit more about how my perception of this villain is. I searched him on SharkScope and saw that he made 22k profit over 9k count. I was 1 tabling this tourney so I could pay close attention to the players. He was a laggy player. Many 3bets, punishing button opens. However I can't remember the specific hand I saw him make a move which made me wonder if it wasn't too wide.

Preflop I called because I got decent odds. It is the bottom of my calling range though. So what hands did I thought he was 3betting with? TT+ AK, AQo and maybe AJo. I guess he would float AQs, AJs, KQs and lower pocket pairs than tens.

Since he was checking the flop and turn I don't think he had AA, KK, AK, AQ, JJ or TT. So ingame I put him on QQ or AJ. But since I was OOP I only had(I feel like) the river to turn my hand into a bluf. And I am not even sure he would fold.

Do you guys think my reads are correct or did I make a mistake somewhere? I feel like my perceived range was way too strong to check 3 times. And what hand do you guys think he had? I will post the result later.

Thnx for your opinions and advice.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.82 Buy-in (3,600/7,200 blinds, 900 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37677175

SB: 419,480 (58.3 bb)
BB: 60,303 (8.4 bb)
Hero (MP1): 535,251 (74.3 bb)
MP2: 185,479 (25.8 bb)
MP3: 438,894 (61 bb)
CO: 147,761 (20.5 bb)
BTN: 613,034 (85.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8 8
Hero raises to 14,400, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 44,200, 4 folds, Hero calls 29,800

Flop: (105,500) J K T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

Turn: (105,500) T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: (105,500) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

It was during the last 2 or 3 tables of the tournament btw.
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Old 03-14-2017, 12:55 PM   #2
scheier
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

AA and AK could definitely check back this flop in villain's shoes.
If you plan to bluff only one street (river), I don't think you're getting enough better hands to fold. Given the specific turn and river, one alternative is that you could decide to bomb it on the river and make life difficult for your opponent, because it's unlikely he has a boat (no bet flop and no bet turn, in position) and a queen could decide to call but it would still be a decision. Seems very risky though.
Bet turn and bet river could make things more difficult for villain, but I'm not sure that the runout is ideal for this game plan.

I would have played it the same. The board is much better for the 3-bettor, from start to finish. Villain may have had Ax or 99 given the action till the end, but I guess that's unlucky ;-)
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Old 03-14-2017, 01:12 PM   #3
steinerbest
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Well, it's a typical 3bettor's board but, after his OTT check, He shows big weakness (I can put him on 99, AQ, AJ, some bluffs with A blockers and, if he's very cautious, QQ). The problem is that A OTR, that gives eventually Top Pair to every ace reraised for value and as a bluff as well. There's no much you can do. He could also call any river overbet. Go on and nh.
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Old 03-14-2017, 02:40 PM   #4
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Agreed, I think villain would check back most Ax hand OTR hoping you might take a stab at it but I can also see 99 and QQ playing this way. As someone said I think you'd have to bomb the river in hopes for a fold, I'm not even sure how big you'd have to go, but I'm guessing more than a PSB. There was also no aggression from you post flop either so from villains perspective they probably think they're good here
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Old 03-14-2017, 03:31 PM   #5
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

But if I bomb the river. What am I really repping? I would bet every T on the turn so that leaves a straight. I can't have AQ, KJ or KT because I would bet those hands on the turn. KQ possibly but I would probably bet this hand on the turn as well. And since (almost) all of us agree QQ is a reasonable hand for him it wouldn't make sense right?

The longer I think about bluffing the turn (and river) the more sense it makes. Him checking the flop makes me cross KK, JJ, TT and AQ(except AQhh, which I think he would float anyway). All these combinations(28 combinations) are perfectly reasonable for my range. Although I think he would bet his AA and AK as well, lets say he could check with these hands OTF. That gives him 6(AA)+6(QQ)+6(99)+12(AK)+12(AJo)=42 combinations. Lets give him a Ax bluf(16 combinations) as well. So he has 58 of combinations which has become even weaker on the turn. Lets say which perceived combos I can have OTT which beat him: JTss JTcc KJss KJcc KTss KTcc KK JJ TT AQ. 34 combos which beats him. I think if I close to PSB OTT and over PSB the river he will fold almost all, if not all the hands in his range.

Does this makes sense or do I make a mistake somewhere? Unfortunately I didn't had this much time to think about it ingame
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Old 03-14-2017, 03:45 PM   #6
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Yes I was talking about betting the OTR and you're right at that point you're not repping much. I think if you did bet the turn, villain has either hit this board or will most likely float on this board with most of their range given the pre flop action and then the river brings an Ace which is more likely to hit villains range which isn't good for you. You can certainly fold out better hands with a PSB OTT and over PSB OTR, but you can also be looked up with a variety of hands as well. They might have a combo of blockers in their hand as well that will also make it more likely to call you, but on the flip side it could also look like you're going to value town with a big hand because of the blockers they might have.
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Old 03-14-2017, 03:53 PM   #7
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Also. You're playing the hand OOP position so we have not a clue what villain may have done had you bet ott
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Old 03-14-2017, 09:34 PM   #8
harry02
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

since villian checked the flop back in position: he is most likely on 99,QQ, AJ,AT and below with all other better hands he would have cbet.

check OTT shows weakness on his part also implying 99, AJ or below(Ax) i think he would have betted QQ also on turn (it depends mostly)

i think since you were OOP it was extremely tricky , but for any bluff to work the bet on turn should be there like 3/4pot ..

not sure if that is called will you bet again on river.. one has to think what hands will call bet on turn which will then fold to river bet.
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Old 03-15-2017, 10:32 AM   #9
steinerbest
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

May I, finally, know what he had?
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Old 03-15-2017, 10:52 AM   #10
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Really hard to know what villain 3 bets and then doesn't c-bet and basically gives up on the turn on a flop that really should have hit most of his range. Perhaps 99, a weak Ace (at least up to the turn), a jack, any two cards?
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Old 03-16-2017, 07:24 AM   #11
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Re: Turn my hand into a bluf?

Thank you for your input guys.

He had A5cc. It makes sense if you look at how the hand played out. I honestly didn't took this hand into consideration ingame. Probably because it doesn't happen too much. In addition, there are little people who are capable of 3betting this hand vs UTG as a bluf.

Again thank you. Does this result give you new insights on how I or he could play this hand differently?
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