Thanks for all you guys' reply.
I agree with you bro, I think CO's bottom range is JJ, AK+ in this table dynamic. So if I shove here, I should pray to hit his bottom range, don't think it's +EV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
consider the table dynamic here. players are regularly limping, rarely raising and never 3betting.
1. 12BB is a great shove size over one or two limpers and has considerable fold equity. you will almost certainly have opportunities to exploit this in the near future. there may be on average 1 to 2 opportunities per orbit where you have the 25-30% holding, position and situation to shove over a limper. add to this the likelihood that you'll get 0 to 1 steal opportunities in late position or top 5% hands in a position where you can 3bet over a raise. that's ~ twice per orbit you're likely to find a +EV to ++EV spot to shove 10-12BB.
2. players aren't raising much and aren't 3-betting with anything so the 3-bet is almost certainly JJ+AK+ and weighted towards KK+ if anything. it's questionable whether this is +EV at all, but imo you also need to add the lost opportunity cost of passing up all the value described in 1 above in any calculation that involves your mtt life (or reduces stack size/utility to the point you no longer have FE).
now compare the expected value between 1 & 2 and imo it's OK to fold the AK without worrying too much about getting blinded out. ofc terrible runs of opening cards do happen, but it's statistically very unlikely that you won't be dealt a top 25% hand in a 10 handed orbit. (0.75^n where n is the number of players at the table = 7.5% on a 9 handed table)
cliffs:
i'd rather jam J9s over one MP limper than call this spot off with 17BB.
it's a trivial jam over the UTG1 raise but a fold vv 3bet