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Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Tough spot with AK, should I shove?

08-29-2015 , 12:07 PM
This is a hand from local club $150 MTT. A lot of fish in this table, a lot of limps.
7 players will be paid, 63 players left, average stakes 46,000, hero had 17,000 left.
Blind 500/1000, ante 100. After this hand, will move to the next blind level 700/1400.

UTG(50,000, passive player, limped a lot) limps
UTG+1(100,000, LAG, CL of the table, call short stakes all in with junk hand a lot times) opens 4,000
CO(50,000, passive fish, limped a lot, opened few times, never saw him 3-bet before) 3-bet to 13,500

Hero got AKo on SB,

My thoughts:
Although UTG+1 opened in early position, I didn't put him in a strong range. Because he is really LOOSE.
After this hand, I will got only 12bb, and in this table, players tend to call your allin with wild range, 12bb shove will be not that powerful to them.
This is a spot far away from the paid.
So I think I should shove.

But...
CO is a passive fish, once passive fish turned to aggressive, we should put him in a really strong range,right? In this way, should I fold?

So...
Which option is the best, shove or fold?
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 12:55 PM
Going with it
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 02:53 PM
Passive fish 3-betting for the first time.... Guess you have to call, hit an A and crack his KK.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 07:10 PM
shove
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 08:42 PM
fold
i'd only call here is if table dynamic allowed UTG1 on a range of 77+KQ+AT+ and CO 99+AQ+. otherwise it's just too marginal and prob -EV, sometimes massively so.
passive tables don't start raising and 3betting with less than the nizzles. you're probably up against CO KK given the size of the 3bet and JJ+AK+ from the initial raiser.
(i once remember seeing precisely KK from UTG1 and AA from CO in this spot holding AK in the SB so blockers be damned.)
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 10:07 PM
Shove
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-29-2015 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by user12345
Going with it
Agreeing with u lately.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-30-2015 , 09:55 PM
You don't have enough BB's to not go with it.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-31-2015 , 01:20 AM
Fold with 50k
obv gii here
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-31-2015 , 02:04 AM
easy fold. lol at several wanting to get our money in bad here with 10-40% equity against this collection of villian's ranges.

When I ship or 3bet KK or AA in spots like this, AKo sometimes suck out. I think you have enough chips to fold AKo here and find a better spot later. In fact, you might be better off shipping two random cards the next time it folds to you than shipping here.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-31-2015 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoudonk
easy fold. lol at several wanting to get our money in bad here with 10-40% equity against this collection of villian's ranges.

When I ship or 3bet KK or AA in spots like this, AKo sometimes suck out. I think you have enough chips to fold AKo here and find a better spot later. In fact, you might be better off shipping two random cards the next time it folds to you than shipping here.
We have 12BB. We can stack up to ~ 30BB asuming limper + raiser fold with ~ 40% vs a reasonable range.
Decent risk/reward. You can pass this up with your stacksize. Blinds will go up and you have no time to wait for "better spots". Take the edges you can get.
Now if we had 50k this spot sucks and I would agree with you.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-31-2015 , 11:43 AM
does a casino even provide a fold button when you have 12bb with AK and not ITM or on FT ????
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
08-31-2015 , 04:26 PM
lol, u guys are acting like AKo is such a big hand how can you ever fold it pre. well you fold it pre when the action is 4x raise followed by a 13.5x 3-bet.

I not a big fan of trying to get it in pre when I know I'm getting called by a better hand.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-01-2015 , 12:13 AM
Even though its the first time you have seen him 3 bet we cannot be folding AK here with only 12 BB left.

Snap shove and hope he has qq or that he is taking advantage OTOO.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-01-2015 , 03:40 AM
Put it all in and expect to be behind in a 3 way pot from your description with UTG+1 calling.
Maybe expect one of your Aces out to be held by UTG+1.

Almost enough value to justify being behind if that happens and CO has KK.
Pray that he doesn't have AA.

I would be hoping that CO is 3 betting with QQ or less because he has the same read as you on the LAG villain.

Sucks but u gotta roll with it.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-01-2015 , 04:52 AM
After this hand if you fold you'll have 12 BB. You can't fold, jam and go with it.
You probably won't get a better spot to double up and in a couple of orbits you'll be short stacked without FE.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-01-2015 , 06:40 AM
I will always be surprised at the arguments like "AK, 12BB, you just cannot fold" without even trying to read what's going on. I think that's coming from the fact that nobody can fault you for getting it in in such spots. But it doesn't mean that it's good poker.
Nevertheless, I am not sure UTG+1 has such a strong range, so to me it looks like there is a lot of dead money lying around, which makes a strong case for a push.
But: CO's range looks really really strong here. Best case for us it's JJ+,AK. And that's being optimistic. If CO's range is KK+, we have to fold. If it's QQ+, I would have to make the calculations.

So, in general, I would be torn about what to decide here. But there's one thing that influences me towards a fold here. OP seems to have pretty good indications that the villains are far from playing RTO with their calling ranges. I know that we are not getting so many cards dealt until we get crippled, but we just paid the small blind, meaning that the blind increase is coming at the perfect time. If we spotted which players will call too loose and which players will call too tight, we have pretty exploitative pushing options coming on, I think. I expect our pushing options to be more EV+ than our EV with the current AK, if it is EV+ at all.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 12:08 AM
I was just in a tournament where I had 100K in chips at a new table. I'm the small blind. Blinds are at 800-1600. UTG raises to 3500, 5 people call. I'm up with AK suited. I wanted to just end the hand there, so I made it 15K to go in the small blind. Big blind goes all in for 40K . Everyone folds, it's on me now. 32K in the pot, I need 25K to call. Would leave me with about 60K if I lose pot. What do you do???

I called, guy turns up Aces....
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 03:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nymbus
I was just in a tournament where I had 100K in chips at a new table. I'm the small blind. Blinds are at 800-1600. UTG raises to 3500, 5 people call. I'm up with AK suited. I wanted to just end the hand there, so I made it 15K to go in the small blind. Big blind goes all in for 40K . Everyone folds, it's on me now. 32K in the pot, I need 25K to call. Would leave me with about 60K if I lose pot. What do you do???

I called, guy turns up Aces....
wow.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 04:10 AM
I forgot how exciting live poker could be, But I'm never folding this.
Passive fish range must be 99+,AQs,AKo that makes our hand . . . . .

I've been in this situation before a lot and I always regretted folding instead of calling.
Do not fold this.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bayoudonk
easy fold. lol at several wanting to get our money in bad here with 10-40% equity against this collection of villian's ranges.

When I ship or 3bet KK or AA in spots like this, AKo sometimes suck out. I think you have enough chips to fold AKo here and find a better spot later. In fact, you might be better off shipping two random cards the next time it folds to you than shipping here.
Cant wait to find a better spot,too low stacked and this spot isn't as bad as you make out,
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 03:15 PM
Yea i agree with furo - i'm fine folding with 50k here, but 13bb ain't gonna get you very far if you're not cold 4bet jamming AK ever dam tym
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-05-2015 , 10:00 PM
consider the table dynamic here. players are regularly limping, rarely raising and never 3betting.

1. 12BB is a great shove size over one or two limpers and has considerable fold equity. you will almost certainly have opportunities to exploit this in the near future. there may be on average 1 to 2 opportunities per orbit where you have the 25-30% holding, position and situation to shove over a limper. add to this the likelihood that you'll get 0 to 1 steal opportunities in late position or top 5% hands in a position where you can 3bet over a raise. that's ~ twice per orbit you're likely to find a +EV to ++EV spot to shove 10-12BB.

2. players aren't raising much and aren't 3-betting with anything so the 3-bet is almost certainly JJ+AK+ and weighted towards KK+ if anything. it's questionable whether this is +EV at all, but imo you also need to add the lost opportunity cost of passing up all the value described in 1 above in any calculation that involves your mtt life (or reduces stack size/utility to the point you no longer have FE).

now compare the expected value between 1 & 2 and imo it's OK to fold the AK without worrying too much about getting blinded out. ofc terrible runs of opening cards do happen, but it's statistically very unlikely that you won't be dealt a top 25% hand in a 10 handed orbit. (0.75^n where n is the number of players at the table = 7.5% on a 9 handed table)


cliffs:
i'd rather jam J9s over one MP limper than call this spot off with 17BB.
it's a trivial jam over the UTG1 raise but a fold vv 3bet

Last edited by oldsilver; 09-05-2015 at 10:09 PM.
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-06-2015 , 04:55 AM
Shove all day, 12BB and AK is a no brainer
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote
09-07-2015 , 12:54 AM
Thanks for all you guys' reply.

I agree with you bro, I think CO's bottom range is JJ, AK+ in this table dynamic. So if I shove here, I should pray to hit his bottom range, don't think it's +EV.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
consider the table dynamic here. players are regularly limping, rarely raising and never 3betting.

1. 12BB is a great shove size over one or two limpers and has considerable fold equity. you will almost certainly have opportunities to exploit this in the near future. there may be on average 1 to 2 opportunities per orbit where you have the 25-30% holding, position and situation to shove over a limper. add to this the likelihood that you'll get 0 to 1 steal opportunities in late position or top 5% hands in a position where you can 3bet over a raise. that's ~ twice per orbit you're likely to find a +EV to ++EV spot to shove 10-12BB.

2. players aren't raising much and aren't 3-betting with anything so the 3-bet is almost certainly JJ+AK+ and weighted towards KK+ if anything. it's questionable whether this is +EV at all, but imo you also need to add the lost opportunity cost of passing up all the value described in 1 above in any calculation that involves your mtt life (or reduces stack size/utility to the point you no longer have FE).

now compare the expected value between 1 & 2 and imo it's OK to fold the AK without worrying too much about getting blinded out. ofc terrible runs of opening cards do happen, but it's statistically very unlikely that you won't be dealt a top 25% hand in a 10 handed orbit. (0.75^n where n is the number of players at the table = 7.5% on a 9 handed table)


cliffs:
i'd rather jam J9s over one MP limper than call this spot off with 17BB.
it's a trivial jam over the UTG1 raise but a fold vv 3bet
Tough spot with AK, should I shove? Quote

      
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