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Old 08-19-2012, 09:00 PM   #1
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SWU, gross river spot

V is 20/15/3/ AF-6 (80 hands)
I run pretty snug - 13/10

haven`t OPRed him, mostly a lot of bad players in SWU early, they were clicking a lot.

PokerStars - $200+$15|125/250 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: 3,650.00
CO: 13,825.00
BTN: 7,296.00
SB: 20,234.00
BB: 7,394.00
UTG: 27,673.00
Hero (UTG+1): 14,309.00
MP: 11,903.00
MP+1: 9,210.00

LP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, BB posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, MP posts ante 25.00, MP+1 posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 125.00, BB posts BB 250.00

Pre Flop: (600.00) Hero has A J

fold, Hero raises to 555.00, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 1,175.00, fold, SB calls 1,050.00, fold, Hero calls 620.00

Flop: (4000.00, 3 players) 5 5 A
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (4000.00, 3 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets 1,655.00, CO calls 1,655.00, fold

River: (7310.00, 2 players) J
Hero bets 4,111.00, CO raises to 10,970.00 and is all-in

Pre is close, but I decided to flat 3 way

I think he can make a lot of weird slowplays otf in 3 bet pot 3way, considering no one have any 5x.
And could also found some weakness in my big river bet when most players would see opposite.

Getting that price, what do you think?
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Old 08-19-2012, 09:34 PM   #2
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

Not folding
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Old 08-19-2012, 10:34 PM   #3
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

call and see AA
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Old 08-20-2012, 01:19 AM   #4
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

I think checking the flop gets him to shove river W/ hands like KK, TT, or QQ thinking you don't have an A. I think you have to call here sucks if you run into JJ.

Do people 3bet TT in that tournament or are they more likely to just flat?
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Old 08-20-2012, 04:33 AM   #5
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

fold pre
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Old 08-20-2012, 05:35 AM   #6
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

yeah, calling pre is a pretty clear mistake. no way is it "close."

no clue what to do now.
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Old 08-20-2012, 06:04 AM   #7
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

imo call pre with thease odds an potentionaly weak players was ok, but unless i hit trips/2 pairs i would c/c, c/f to showdown depend on action.

Might thin vbet on R

now i call
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Old 08-20-2012, 07:16 AM   #8
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

idk i think it's incredibly lame because he has quite few value combos and we are getting a ridiculous price, but i think he is like never bluffing (or value raising worse, although lol i guess i wouldn't be incredibly surprised to sometimes see ak here/idiot factor)
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Old 08-20-2012, 09:03 AM   #9
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chester20o View Post
imo call pre with thease odds an potentionaly weak players was ok, but unless i hit trips/2 pairs i would c/c, c/f to showdown depend on action.
c/c-ing turn is bad, do you understand why?
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Old 08-20-2012, 09:08 AM   #10
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephants_pride View Post
c/c-ing turn is bad, do you understand why?
I don't. Care to enlighten?
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Old 08-20-2012, 11:02 AM   #11
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

I think this is a really cool spot to jam as an overbet. Now meh, not sure.
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Old 08-20-2012, 11:18 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
I think this is a really cool spot to jam as an overbet. Now meh, not sure.
can agree. dont you he'd often fold bottom of the range we're trying to get value from (dumb KK, AQ) putting us on some JJ.
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Old 08-20-2012, 11:20 AM   #13
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

I think he can have AK sometimes thinking he's cool slowplaying a pair
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Old 08-20-2012, 01:30 PM   #14
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephants_pride View Post
can agree. dont you he'd often fold bottom of the range we're trying to get value from (dumb KK, AQ) putting us on some JJ.
our range is narrower anyway because of the 3b pre and because of pre it's hard for us to have a better hand than AJ so we may as well go for max value with the top of our range vs their perceived bluffcatchers.
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Old 08-20-2012, 06:42 PM   #15
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Re: SWU, gross river spot

Villain with a 3% 3-bet percentage over 80 hands suddenly makes a really small 3-bet against our EP raise (and we have clearly been really tight) from MP. This should make you instantly hit fold preflop, as calling is either a waste of 620 chips or an unmitigated disaster. The position you end up in by the river is almost a best case scenario for playing this hand preflop.

Based on the post-flop play, I believe that villain will show up with AK or AA 100% of the time. While there are 8 combos of AK and 1 of AA left by the river, due to the preflop action and the chance of villain just calling with AK on the river, villain is showing up with AA well over half the time.

Having said that, you need villain showing up with AA 3/4 of the time to make this a fold, and I don't think you can be that certain, so you have to call.
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