Quote:
Originally Posted by jjpregler
I wrote a long reply to this yesterday that somehow did not get posted. Anyway, the condensed version:
1) With suited connectors I look for 20:1 implied odds. the bet you have to call has to be 5% or less than the effective stacks. Here the bet you have to call is too large for this hand. Implied odds means getting enough extra possible winnings in return for the few times you do hit your monster hand
2) You can always 3 bet bluff with these hands as well. However, this may not be the spot for a light 3 bet. I like to target opens that the villain has higher than 20% PFR from the position they are raising from to attempt a light 3 bet. From your description and the villain's position, I would guess he's probably closer to 10% than over 20%.
3) You can always call the right players in position with the objective to take away the pot later in the hand. For this you need 3 ingredients in the villain, wide range, high c-bet, low 2 barrel and 3 barrel numbers. Basically, the player who will open a wide range, c-bet a lot, then play face up on the turn and river. Again, your description of this villain doesn't indicate you have this type of read.
So for these reasons, I prefer a fold pre-flop.
Flop - you flopped a marginal hand. Your first goal should be to get to showdown cheaply. Your hand has equity if you can get to showdown with pot control. The c-bet call is perfect here.
Turn - It seems you lost track of your goal here. You have a marginal hand that may win at showdown. He can have hands like KQ/22/44 and some others you are ahead of at this time. Additionally, hands like KK/QQ/JJ you have to be prepared to barrel the river as well if your are planning to turn your marginal showdown value hand into a bluff. Finally, not everyone fires again with AK/AQ. I love to check these hands on the turn when I c-bet with overs then hit my TPTK on the turn. It allows me to easily pick off my opponents who will bet the turn whenever I check.
River - As I stated before, if you were planning to turn your hand into a bluff, you had to go all the way. KK was supposed to call your turn bet, then make a river decision. This was specifically the hand you mentioned that you were targeting to bluff. Before you decide to target that hand, you should know what you have to do to make them fold. In today's game, 1 bet will never ever get the job done. Before you make the first bluff you should understand this and plan for this before you fire the first bet. If you are not prepared to fire the turn AND river, you should never bluff the turn here trying to get KK to fold.
Thanks for this analysis. I think my mistake on the turn was in my sizing. If I go small say 2200, I can then jam the river with a decent amount of fold equity. Of course, if he check raised me all in, it would be awful giving up the equity in the pot (with 9 outs, I wouldn't have the odds to call).
Interesting though, if he is never folding his big pairs on the turn, I bet that ~7% of my size for a call is very profitable, if I just wait for 2 pair+. Of course there are boards were the big pair hands won 't call.
I like that you play your big overs 'backwards'. I sometimes do this as well, but I doubt my villain was taking that line. Not that it matters too much, but I was targeting all the over pairs in his range, not just KK. I think he just got 'pot entitled' with that exact hand, would be easier for him to give up say TT.