This hand comes from the Borgata Summer Poker Open Seniors Event. My decision on the river has been bothering me a lot, and I'd like to get some thoughts on how others would respond to Villain's line and river bet.

The hand took place late in the tournament with about 4 tables left. The blinds were 2,500/5,000 + 500 ante. Effective stacks were $250K, with Villain covering Hero. The table was short with 7 players.

Although not at the table for very long, Villain seemed liked an above-average player. He was playing relatively tight, but would definitely open for a raise, especially in later position.

Hero likely had a similar image in Villain's eyes, but was probably regarded as playing tighter preflop. Villain had seen Hero 3-bet from the SB against another player's 2.5BB preflop raise, and Hero showed Kings that time. Subsequently, Hero also 3-bet Villain from the SB when Villain opened with a raise to 3BB. Hero did not show his Jacks on that occasion.

Preflop, Villain raised to $15K after a few folds. Hero called on the button with A 9. One of the blinds called, and everyone else folded.

Flop [$51K]: Q 8 7

Everyone checked.

Turn [$51K]: Q 8 7 J

Everyone checked to Hero. Hero decided to bet $35K with a flush draw, gutshot straight draw, and an Ace. Only Villain called.

River [$121K] Q 8 7 J A

Villains led out on the river for $65K.

I honestly didn't know what to make of that bet. Rolling back the action and Villain's line, his opening range was relatively wide and included a lot of suited Aces, pairs, and Broadway cards. All are consistent with an open-raise in later position.

It's hard to see Villain slowplaying both the flop and turn with any overpairs, top pair, sets, or two-pair hands against two players on a semi-coordinated board. Of course, they're possible, if unlikely.

It's also hard to see him not leading the turn with a hand like AJ, KJ, or QJ once the Jack fell. Again, these hands are are possible, but not particularly consistent with his line.

So if he was drawing on the turn, it was either with KT or A-X. KT made a straight on the river, and there are more suited Aces that beat me than not (I can beat A6-A2; I lose to AK-AT and A8-A7; I tie A9).

That just leaves bluffs that I can beat. Are there enough of those that he might choose to bet on this particular river with a missed draw or an underpair to the Ace?

What would you do facing this bet and why?

I think its a call and pray. I also think you could have bet on the flop when they checked to you.

I hate these spots. All you have is bluff catcher. Its close but I fold since I think donk bets are more value and less bluff. If he has one of the few Ax you can beat, its not the worst fold. You hold the two clubs and the Ace, so lots of his pure bluffs are less likely. I fold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Feels like a value bet. His check, check call, and then lead out for about 1/2 pot suggests KxTx to me. I'd be more likely to call a pot sized bet here as there would be a higher chance he's bluffing. I'm probably folding.

Villian could have just been playing position- if he is as decent of a player as you say, trying to pick up blinds. Everyone checking the flop is weird for a decent size pot. And after the c on the turn giving you the 2nd nut flush- you have to go for it big time!!! Then the A on river is a definite call- no matter how you look at it, you have top pair. I'd say he had a busted straight draw, 56s, T8s/o, J9, QT. And if you lose the hand , you still have 34 BB. And he gave you 3-1 (I guess you had $250k?)

this,great spot on the flop to bet with so many cards to help you on the turn

I know my thread is about the river decision, but I'd like to follow up on this comment about the flop. I don't think I agree given that this this hand is 3-way, that my stack is not really well suited for a multi-street bluff, and that I have nothing but an overcard and backdoor draws.

First, while I can see merit in betting the flop if I were heads up in position against the preflop raiser who chose to check the flop, this flop is 3-handed and includes the SB. Based on that, I don't think you can read too much into the SB's flop check. He could easily have been simply checking to the raiser, and his range include lots of hands that could float or check-raise a bet from a player betting on the button. In hindsight, we know that the SB had nothing worthwhile because he check-folded the turn, but his hand strength is not so apparent on the flop.

Second, the stack size is a bit awkward if I were to get to called in 1 or 2 spots following a flop bet. Assuming that I were to make the same $35K bet, the pot would swell to $121K-$156K depending on whether one or both players called. Even if I improve on the turn, I have about $200K left, and so any bet leaves me pot-committed with a marginal hand or a straight/flush draw at best.

Which I guess relates to the last point. I don't have a ton of equity on the flop and no reason to believe that I have lots of fold equity against two players on a semi-coordinated board. I would expect to be called on the flop by at least one player a fair amount of the time, and I'm mostly looking to improve my equity by improving one of my backdoor draws.

Thus, for all those reasons, I feel like taking the free card under all these circumstances was the right play.

I would still appreciate more feedback about the river decision. I folded because I couldn't think of many hands that I could beat aside from bluffs, and I didn't think there were enough bluffs in Villain's range. I'd appreciate others' thoughts on that decision.

Hero is pure bluff catcher.
If the donk is a defense bet, you can only call and beat a few of his made hands, the rest of his value range crushes you.
Honestly this would be the exact same scenario if the river was an off suit 9 ball.
If the donk bet is a pure bluff, then it is a great bluff and if he has this play from oop on this river, then so be it, the offsuit ace is not the strong part of our calling range.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't think Villain bets an ace for value - not even Ace King. Because I think a lot of your range includes missed club draws that could bluff or hands that beat Ace King. He would only be getting value from AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, and perhaps something like KJ.

However, when he check calls the turn and leads the river, it does feel like the ace helped him somehow. If he had a strong holding without the ace (like a set or a straight), then I can't see him checking two streets on a very wet board like this.
King Ten makes the most sense here. It's possible that he could have also made two pair with AJ/A8/A7. So I agree that you are only beating a bluff.

Not sure that Villain has many bluffs as played. If he had a club or spade flush draw, you might have heard about it on the flop or turn. In addition, I don't see too many missed flush draws that he checks twice and that also lack showdown value after the river: maybe Kc9c or 6c5c?

I would fold.

I wrote an entire message, but couldnt post because something wrong with login.

I have tried to reconstruct most of it:

(this is how i would analyze the hand, when reviewing and having the time, (something might be horribly wrong with my analysis, i never checked with anyone lol))

You ask, enough bluff hands to call here? (so trying to figure out/get rough estimate on perceived value vs bluff)

If I had to answer this:
Looks like KT, AsKs 'shouldnt' even bet here. Could be AJ sometimes, but AJ could also check river.
If he has a combo draw, he would bet out sometimes on F/T, so that could partially eliminate some of the bluff hands like 9s6s, 6s5s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts8s, Ks9s (i might missed one).
Also eliminates the KsTs a % of the time.

so 6/7 bluff hands, minus lets say 2 cause he bets out himself on F/T sometimes, so that is 4/5.

Then there is value hands, lets say he opens all KTs, and 60-70% of KTo. so that is like 13, and then AJ sometimes, is 6 and checks those half the time instead of lead out river (rough estimates), which makes 16 combos for value.

(him calling with KT on turn is little more weighted towards KsTs, unless he likes to gamble/thinks he gets paid off, plus he got 50+ bbs(more shifted towards him taking the odds). needs 29% on turn(including K's as outs) to call when getting 21%. Speculative but big stack+might get paid off)

so 4 bluff combos out of 20 total is 0,20. 65k to win 250k, 50k equity against his (by us created) betting range, call would be roughly -15k.
If shifted more towards playing draws passively one could say: 5 bluff vs 15 value, 0,25 x 250k = 62k, would be roughly -3k on the call.

What would i have done and why? I would fold given stack size + seems like a valuebet cause of size and line + no read
(not what you asked but: i think ur sizing on turn is cause of seniors event, in the past players used to make bigger bets. I would (especially with no read on opponent) bet less on turn/check for pot control, so if i get there = great, if not(or like this case an A on river), i can opt to make a call for little chips on river for information/in case sticky cards come of (Ts?). bigger bet could be advised since after all we are semi-bluffing and wanna take it down.

Dont be harsh on me, i havnt posted here after 2 posts in 2014, i might be a little off :P

if a Villians line is super creative then we should give hm credit for a value hand rather than a bluff. Also the ace river is not a good bluff card for hm after calling turn. I'd say he has KT or AJ here alot

This hand is really tough. I think I'd pray to the pot odds gods and be the station that I am.

when you call river, what hands are you expecting him to roll over that you beat?

Seems like a trival fold

thats actually not that important. when we have so few data/reads/hands on someone it's nearly impossible to range people properly in those spots. we should focus on our own range and as weird as it seems we are somewhat near the top of it even though we only have 1 pr. with AQ and QJ we would be betting the flop and A8/A7 should check back ott. we could have AJ/KT and probably AT taking that line being the only better hands so given the price we are being laid i think we have to call this.

so what happend?

Feels like A7 or A8 maybe, KT also very possible. Very few hands that are bluffing imo that he wouldnt bet flop with.

wow....this is a little gross 65spaids maybe?? and the A on the river is best non spaid for him to bluff river w missed draw...higher spaids hes probably betting the flop. but what are your thoughts on not 3Betting pre w A9s especially since Villan raised a lil over 3x?