Blinds are 1k-5k-10k UTG raises to 22k. SB QsJc I flat for 17k, BB calls.
Flop is AxJx2d , I check, BB bets 45k, UTG folds, and here is my question....
Is it better to flat, then lead shove turn, or c/r here ?
Live read was he *May* have a weak ace, any big ace he would have repopped pre.
9 handed, this was day 2 of a tourny and all player ITM. My sole goal was to take down 1st. BB had just sat down, an orbit ago, saw him open UTG +2 with AJs . Had some convo with him as well about his job and his poker playing. I felt very confident he would 3bet any big Ace in that spot, and the original raiser was an Asian gangsta
Your read on BB could be quite solid, but remember, he's allowed to make a read on you.
If you c/r the flop, his range for you is bound to include a lot of middle-pair hands, plus unimproved PPs. You've established yourself as an active, talky guy, and without much knowledge of your actual playing style, BB/Villain is likely to assume that you're an active, tricky player. (i.e. not a Rock.) This is a very excellent opportunity for you to make a move, and he should know that. It's hard to assume that he will release even a weak Ax, just because you're charging at him.
That said, his range includes some non-Ace hands, too, and you've got a legitimate bluff-catcher. Roll the dice if you want, either now or on the turn. You're up against the same issues either way; not sure either approach has a meaningful edge over the other.
As played. Call and check/re-eval turn. Your ~230k jam into ~165k doesn't look like value. No 2 pair hands are just bombing it in. Trying to just make this guy fold his weak A is bad. You started the hand on 30bigs and can find plenty of better spots than risk going broke here. We can't be sure this guy won't just hero you with his A and have you drawing thin.
I flatted, then insta shoved the turn, he put me on J2.
Bravo! I'm guessing that Villain has spent the last five years wondering if his wife is cheating on him ... and just found out that she is. It takes a special set of life events to develop that level of terror in everyday living.
