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Midstakes MTT Discussion and analysis of midstakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-16-2017, 12:48 AM   #1
donkathon
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River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Sup nerds, first post.

UTG1 guy is running 25/15, BB is 44/27, both over 84 hands. First of all, I'm pretty ok with pre because we're insanely deep and can setmine. Do y'all raise flop to build a pot? I called to keep the fishy bb in.

Turn raise might be too small? I am basically hoping to induce from overpairs, AKcc type hands, Q also smashed utg range and he will continue with AQ, KQ, downside would maybe make him fold some middle pairs. I feel like raising turn might also be bad because it looks pretty nutted and might fold out all hands we dominate that aren't AA, KK.

River is just weird and awkward. He looks strong but dat bounty tho.

Thoughts?



Poker Stars, $40 Buy-in (80/160 blinds, 24 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37678764

BTN: 3,612 (22.6 bb)
SB: 9,714 (60.7 bb)
BB: 5,116 (32 bb)
UTG+1: 13,429 (83.9 bb)
UTG+2: 10,853 (67.8 bb)
MP1: 4,715 (29.5 bb)
MP2: 3,169 (19.8 bb)
MP3: 5,000 (31.3 bb)
Hero (CO): 18,191 (113.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3 3
UTG+1 raises to 320, 4 folds, Hero calls 320, 2 folds, BB calls 160

Flop: (1,256) 7 3 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets 528, Hero calls 528, BB calls 528

Turn: (2,840) Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets 1,120, Hero raises to 2,880, BB folds, UTG+1 calls 1,760

River: (8,600) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 5,760 (with 3917 behind), Hero?
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Old 03-16-2017, 05:35 AM   #2
oldgoat
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Once we flop our set I don't know why we are not trying to get it in and get the bounty. As played certainly not folding - prob still a shove given bounty.
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Old 03-16-2017, 08:25 AM   #3
WorldResident
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Flop I would play the same. You want to keep V in the dark. Yes I think the turn bet is too small. You want him to have a PSB on the river. If you think about folding or calling the river. Why would you raise the turn? You raise because you want to gii OTR. If he has a set over set it is just ul and you go on.
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Old 03-16-2017, 08:55 AM   #4
daviid
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

i dont think we have too many hands that want to raise either flop or turn tbh. if we were hu otf it seems ok to raise some sets and raise the occasional T8s or whatever but given that we are 3ways, it rly limits the options. turn is an easy call and id also call river for sure. rly tough for him to have better hands when he bombs the river like that and people like to click btns.
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Old 03-16-2017, 09:10 AM   #5
scheier
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

I have yet another point of view in this hand (closer to WorldResident though)
Preflop is fine.
On the flop, I would just call as well. There are not that many draws out there and the BB, which can hit this flop the hardest, can still decide to raise it up behind us.
On the turn, both calling and raising are perfectly fine in my opinion. The raise does look really nutted and we could force a fold out of many hands that we would like some more value from (strong queens, some players will fold overpairs,...), but it also has a lot of merits.
I agree that the turn raise should be bigger in order to set up a shove on the river, especially given the bounty.

On the river, as played, this is a crying call to me. I don't agree with getting it in. Villain did show quite some strength and when he donks this river, do we really think this 67% pot bet is some kind of blocking bet?
I am not saying we should fold! We definitely call.
But I don't think there's enough incentive to put more money into the pot at this point, even with the bounty.
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Old 03-16-2017, 10:24 AM   #6
WorldResident
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Quote:
Originally Posted by scheier View Post
On the river, as played, this is a crying call to me. I don't agree with getting it in. Villain did show quite some strength and when he donks this river, do we really think this 67% pot bet is some kind of blocking bet?
I am not saying we should fold! We definitely call.
But I don't think there's enough incentive to put more money into the pot at this point, even with the bounty.
Think about it this way. If he really had a better hand. Wouldn't he just jam the river to make it more appealing for hero to call? There is a bounty at stake after all.

But also mathematically. He has to put 4k extra chips in the pot to win 14,4k. So he needs to have a better hand less than 20% of the time. Even less if V puts the last 4k of his stack in the pot. And we haven't even included the bounty in this calculation. Enough reason to gii imo.
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Old 03-16-2017, 10:35 AM   #7
scheier
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldResident View Post
Think about it this way. If he really had a better hand. Wouldn't he just jam the river to make it more appealing for hero to call? There is a bounty at stake after all.

But also mathematically. He has to put 4k extra chips in the pot to win 14,4k.
True, but then again if villain does not bet all-in because he's not sure that he has the best hand (or is sure he doesn't...), isn't that an argument for him to fold a lot to a raise, even a tiny one?

I agree with your theory and the numbers are on your side. But to me it just seems like villain clicked the 67% button, either because he's afraid not to get paid off with a nutted hand if he overbets all-in, or because he's bluffing and makes a desperate "I have a strong hand move".
With a medium holding like two pair or such, the 51% button (or whichever is his default half pot button configuration) would have probably been his weapon of choice. (our set basically has the same value than top two pair Q7 here)

I may be wrong, that's just my gut talking.
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Old 03-17-2017, 01:57 AM   #8
donkathon
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

I jammed without much thought and he had a random 44. In retrospect getting it in with 80ish bbs with bottom set is a little wack on that river, I don't think random players make that bet as a bluff after our turn raise, and tbh bounty is nice and we're not folding, but saving the extra 24 bbs is probably a long term better play, as we can stack anyone else at the table.
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Old 03-17-2017, 06:50 AM   #9
gregz41
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

As a nerd, I feel obliged to chime in.

If you take the approach to slow play these low boards on the button, you often end up in situations where you end up having like 4/5 or 5/5 of the possible sets on the board by the river.

I'm generally in favour of raising bottom set because it has the least blocking card removal effects for both players left in the hand to continue on the flop. By having a value range on the flop, we allow our self to build up some value vs the range of hands that continue. In addition to that, we get the opportunity to work in a couple of bluffs, which as part of a balanced raising strategy, will allow you to win the pot more frequently.
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Old 03-17-2017, 11:10 AM   #10
onehandatatime
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Agree with Gregz here. Also by raising OTF say to 1300 we can set it up to jam OTT, in a bounty this is the approach I would take.
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Old 03-17-2017, 11:11 PM   #11
donkathon
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

Yeah I think that's spot on Greg. The lack of blocker value and blockers in general are something I need to think about more. Plus people don't fold in these tournaments at the early stages lol
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Old 03-18-2017, 01:13 AM   #12
JAKETS25
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Re: River Spot with Bottom Set in 44$ Bounty

+1 Raise flop
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