Villain is a good reg (I think, not really sure, but let's assume. At worst he's prob solid). I have him running 17/15/6 over 1.3k hands. Villain has been opening fairly aggressively the last few orbits. He had r/ced A2s vs. a 7.5bb reshove the hand before. I had been playing moderately tight.

The flat might be a bit light but I had flatted JJ in MP vs. his UTG+2 open a few hands ago and ended up showing it down, so I figured my perceived flat range was strong enough to get away with it. We're either on the exact bubble or one off.

fold river

Would be surprised for someone to bluff this way, club combos probably c/jam turn? c/c with like 77-JJ to bluff river makes zero sense. There shouldn't be many 6x combos but not much else makes sense. I guess fold?

Bubble adds a dynamic for sure. If it hadnt been for bubble I would fold river. Because it is the bubble i think the correct play is to raise/call the flop

raise or fold pre

i dont believe his line. if he would really have overpair, AQ or a set here, why would he bet so small otf on a board with a flush draw, and how the heck would he c/c turn with 6x. also we have a Q blocker. i cant range him, so leaning towards a call.

further, no sense to bet turn if not calling seemingly blank rivers. check back and call a smallish bet or bet /fold urself if you want a safer route on this hand. in fact, id take this line if the bubble is relevant.

also, I dont like the KQ flat from that position, it just invites a multiway and KQ sucks big time in a multiway.

I don't think he would lead into 4 people with just a draw on flop. So he HAS to have something. It makes me just want to call flop and check turn behind.
Pot smaller, no rough riverdecision.
As played, I can't see what we beat here.. No way he would go allin with worse than KQ?
However, I think he has our range pretty much capped with our play.
KQ makes most sense in what we are repping.
If he is really good he will make the same move with AQ, knowing that we must have worse Q's and flopped or turned 2p is out of the question with our image.
He either has AQ, or 44, which in retrospect is a supercapped range, but I can't see any other hands play like this.
Fold river..

no. pre is fine with position.

River is so weird. His line is so retarded, cause he should prob c/r with 6x when he calls ott cause u should bet most ur Qx and bluffs otr.

But nothing else rly makes sense here, so I am rly not sure, but I am leaning towards a call (me is station).

calling for sure.

flop sizing indicates he may want to b/3b
every draw missed
if he has it why wouldn't he let you bluff when the board bricks out? especially because you could value shove with worse hands than his c/c range, too

wow, all I know is calling open river shoves when you were the last aggressor never seems to end well. (especially vs someone you think is at least solid)

Might want to conider posting this in hsmtt?

I agree with this 1000%. I don't want to hijack this thread but I always wonder whether, when we are villain, c/r the turn is better than c/c turn and donking river. I know there has to be theory on this somewhere but I never really know if one line is more optimal than the other (assuming that villain had a made hand before the river).

you dont have much floats (if any) in your range 4way, your flop calling range is pretty strong as his cbetting range should be.
think i check turn to get value OTR or i fold river/check it behind, hard to get max value here-
pre is ok.

I also felt I don`t want to bet turn there, but was unsure if it`s right, until I suddenly understood it`s all because of pre, which is a clear fold for me.

if we can fold river to a shove (and I did fold, btw), doesn't that make it better to bet the turn with the intention of checking back most rivers? Do people really think villain is going to make enough bluffs in a spot like this to make checking the turn better?

even though this is really weird and i want to call pretty badly i think this is a fold since he isnt taking this line with missed draw often enough and u beat close to 0% of his value range OTR.

btw i think betting turn is better than checking on this exact board