$400 buyin tournament, 1730ish entrants. 170 cash, about 195 remain. Hero has 630k chips, blinds are 10k/20k with 3k antes. Next hand they'll go up to 4/12/24. Average stack is 900k or so. Folds to hero in UTG+2, opens to 55k. UTG+3 goes all-in for 270k, everyone else folds. Hero?

Obviously, the cEV is an easy math problem -- if Villain is shoving relatively light here (something like 22+,AJ+,KQ), it's a snap call, and if he's tightish (something like 99+,AQ+), it's a snap fold.

My question is, how much does bubble proximity matter here? 300k if we lose is still enough chips to get some fold equity with, but at the same time it really hampers our maneuverability as we get nearer the bubble. If we put the villain on a looser shoving range, is the -cEV fold still +$EV? Does that imply opening 66 is a mistake here?

Ez fold

From a cEV perspective you need 36% to call. 215000/(215000+382000).

Lets just give villain the middle ground 77+,AJ+. Against that range 66 has 27%. If we add all KQ combos it's up to 32%. That range might even be generous considering positions and proximity to bubble.