Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?
9 max...184 places left, 164 paid.
EP: Villain (60 BB)- 26, 23, 9 over 50 hands
MP: Hero (34 BB) - 23 19 6
EP raises, Hero dealt JJ
?- Why risk your whole stack pre-flop near $ bubble with 34 BB vs big stack?
EP so far has TAG-like stats who seems genuinely aware of correct tournament strategy. He may 4 B shove A10s a a semi-bluff pre and even if I make call I'm barely better than a coin-flip.
?- Am I not in prime position to steal near bubble with 30 + BBs when EP with big stack folds in front of me? So why risk it all on a spot pre-flop where I'm likely only marginally ahead of his 4 bet range?
Flop is K 8 7 two spades.
Villain bets half pot, Hero calls.
Turn is 10 diamonds...
Villain bets 3/4 pot, Hero calls with 17 BB left and 17 BB in pot.
-I think alot of you would say to fold here and I wouldn't blame you. He'd bet betting K10, AA, any set, AK on turn all of which have me crushed.
-But hes also barrelling J10, 109, 99, 66, AJ (two way straight draw) alot.
-I can put him to a decision on any Ace, Jack, spade or 9 on river when he checks.
River is Ace of spades (3 spades)
I rule out most sets, almost all flushes and most two pairs:
I put him on a barrelling range that gave up or spiked an Ace.
J10, 109, 99, AJ, (possibly AQ and possibly K8)
-I beat 3 hands in this range but have possibility of getting ALL TO FOLD, depending on his perception of me.
Checking behind is a conservative play.
It makes sense for me to bet big in this spot with 10-7s, flushes that picked up straight equity on turn and decided to check call thru since his turn bet looked pretty strong. I also could represent a slowplayed AA, KK or AK preflop and possibly A8.
Wouldn't he expect me to check back my hands with showdown value? Basically any ace or king alone isn't shoving into him.
I don't think hed anticipate me turning JJ into a bluff...
Hero shoves all-in.
- AQ, AJ, A9, KJ, KQ well within his range...all bet again frequently on turn with added equity.
- I think he bets two pair or better on river...I would of likely raised flop with any spades worse than a straight flush draw, so he doesn't fear spades.
-Vast majority of time in this spot hes not slow-playing although he may check to induce a bluff with weak two pair hands.
- He is either giving up with an underpair two barrell bluff or he rivered an Ace or has a weak two pair like K8 suited.
-I think it is most likely he has an Ace because an underpair can't win at showdown and he can apply pressure to me. Rivering an Ace gives him decent showdown value and he can expect me to check behind in this spot with 10 9 offsuit, KQ, KJ, maybe K9?
- I think I represent 109 spades or Offsuit but also any slow-played set 10-7s.
- While it is unlikely him or I have flush, he may still consider it a possibility when I shove.
- AK is not completely outside my range if Villain thinks I will pot-control vs his big stack near bubble.
It is such an odd and very weak check on river and my gut was this wasn't the player to slowplay two pair. If I could increase my 32 BB stack by 50% with a shove when I don't expect a call often (especially near bubble), I will usually do it.
Villian had no reason to think I wasn't anything other than a normal TAG based on 50 hands of play.
I expect this shove to fold out most Aces and Kings which aren't two pair or better.
While half-pot is technically an option, I want to increase my fold equity vs someone who has never seen any of my river bet sizes before.
Last edited by Westbrook_0; 03-19-2017 at 04:57 AM.