Hi everyone

Yesterday I made the final three in the 16.5 20k gtd at pokerstars and made a pretty thin reshove that ended up costing me my tournament life. I have been thinking a lot about the hand, and I'm still not sure if it was a good play.





Payouts were:

1: $7,531.60 (15.754%)
2: $5,617.08 (11.749%)
3: $4,015.62 (8.4%)

According to icmizer I should be calling with 13,4% (66+ A7s+ A8o+ KTs+ KQo) vs a correct shove (51.4%) but obviously the fact that he min raises changes both of our ranges quite a bit as I assume I have some fold equity and his range is more polarized. He was playing 33/33, stealing 80% (4/5) from button over 56 hands. He seemed to understand icm quite well at the final table and I'm pretty sure he's a good reg. There was lot of min raise folding 8-12bb stacks (too much I think) at the final table which affected my decision a little.

I assume his min raise calling range is very nutted as he can put a huge amount of icm pressure on me and sb by shoving because of our similar stack sizes. My guess would be that his min raise calling range is something like 1010+, AJs+, AJo+ which I have 30.29% against when called, but please tell me if you think it's wider. If I'm not mistaken, I need 55% equity with fold equity to make the shove. I obviously have a blocker to Ax/AA which is pretty significant if we assume his calling range is something like top 6% of hands. So the question is how wide we think he is min raise folding.

I would really appreciate some imput.

Standard shove according to his stats.

Ya Ur just never ever folding In this spot unlucky

Against an 80% button steal it's an auto-jam. Nice cash, ul.

Uh, those 80% really don't mean anything over that sample.
I mean yeah, if you`ve seen him mr/f alot it's pretty standard, but the fact that he's minraising into 2 shortstacks in that spot should worry us quite a bit

I agree. Same goes for his pfr. The sample is really small so we obviously shouldn't make too big adjustments. He did min raise/fold quite a bit, but that's what he should be doing at the final table with his stack and position at the table (before 3-handed play). As I said in OP he is in a great spot to put ICM pressure on me and sb and should probably shove the majority of his opening range (min raising hands like K9s, JTo, small Ax etc. seems pretty bad). But at the same we shouldn't give him too much credit and assume he fully understands the spot, so maybe his range isn't as polarized as I think.