Just busted out of a $30k GTD, $109 buy-in and it's the earliest I've busted out in a few days. I usually dread playing 88, 99, TT and even JJ, especially as blinds increase. So here was the situation. Please tell me your thoughts.

I am in the cutoff and blinds are 50/100. Starting stack size of 5000. Everyone folds to me.

Hero: ~4,250 with 99 bets 225
Villain on Button: ~12,500 with TT 3 bets to 625.
SB and BB fold.

Flop is: 658 rainbow

I know villains range definitely includes higher pairs. He knows I am generally pretty tight vs. him and normally show up with the goods in big pots. My original intention was to set mine and then if I missed I would most likely fold to a c-bet. But I realized I didn't know exactly what to do here given the flop since I had an overpair and an inside straight draw. So I check it to him and he puts out a 2/3 pot c-bet. I am pretty sure he doesn't have a set now and I am thinking he could do this with an AK or AQ, but a higher pocket pair is definitely in his range.

I could call but I would have committed 40% of my stack by this point and I was getting bad price to call. Given his stack size I think I should have folded to the c-bet, but I thought he could definitely fold to a check raise. However, given the size of his c-bet, if my check raise failed then I would have a tiny stack left so I decide to shove. Turn was a 3 and river was a J.

I think I should have bet larger pre-flop especially given that I was in the cutoff but I made a series of errors here. How do you guys play pairs like this? Given his stack size he could have easily have done this with 77s as well, but if he had QQ, KK or AA I think he would have tried to extract more chips out of me. Even if he had 77s and I won, I still think my play was incorrect.

Also given my stack size I had to commit about 14% of my chip stack to set mine which work about 12.5% of the time. However given that it's a semi-premium hand I thought I was still getting a good price to call and see the flop, especially since he had nearly triple my stack.

Thoughts? I feel like going forward I shouldn't overplay failed set mines and just fold or even check it down if that's possible. I feel more confident playing with 22s through 77s as the decisions are more obvious. And with QQ and higher the same, somewhat.

Thanks for replying in advance. Once I figure out how to get the hand history converter to convert the hands in my hold em manager database properly I will post so it's easier to see what transpired.

Cheers.

Hey,
You should not post results in the initial post, because it makes it much harder to make sure that the responses are not results oriented.

As you said yourself, you are not getting the right price to set mine, especially oop. Nevertheless, 99 is indeed a good enough hand to defend with. It's not an easy thing to navigate (as you also point out), but it makes you less exploitable preflop.

I think I would include 99 in my flop calling range and be looking more toward 89s, 67s or stuff like that in my semi-bluffing range. But someone more accustomed to crunching out appropriate and balanced numbers will have a better insight into those ranges.

Because that's if you want to be balanced at all post-flop.
I do think that your stack is somewhat too big to check/shove with moderate value and too shallow to check/raise. (well, at least given villain's flop sizing)
So I would go for the check/call.
Of course, the turn has a lot of potential barreling cards for villain. If an ace, king or queen comes and he shoves, I think I would fold. If he bets smaller, I would be inclined to call one more bet and shut down on the river. I do think a lot of bluffs will shut down on the river.

As to your "fundamental" question regarding medium pairs, they are not that easy, this is true. But when stacks get shallower, they should actually be easier to play for you. Less than 20BBs and you should be ready to get them in in a majority of situations.

Maybe it will help to play your range instead of your specific hand and adjust to where this actual hand ranks in your current range.

Careful on the math. Even if you flop a set, there's no guarantee you double through him. A few examples.

Flop is 962r. Villain has AKs. You'll get one more slice, but that's probably it.

Flop is KJ9. Your set is probably good, but not quite guaranteed. And if you're up against a straight or a better set, you're probably going broke. This is a small but non-zero risk for any flop with a couple Broadway cards.

Flop is Q93 monochrome. This is rare but cruel. A made flush will probably stack you. The more likely prospect of being up against the nut flush draw forces you either to price him out (and not double through him) or price him in ... and maybe lose the hand.

Add it all up, and your chances of winning and getting well paid are more like 8% to 10%. Not 12%. Early in a tournament, I'd say you should view middle pairs about like small pairs. Nice to play cheap, but no reason to commit a lot of money to them, unimproved, especially against resistance.