Quote:
Originally Posted by zjpoker
lgiven my stack size I had to commit about 14% of my chip stack to set mine which work about 12.5% of the time. However given that it's a semi-premium hand I thought I was still getting a good price to call and see the flop.
Careful on the math. Even if you flop a set, there's no guarantee you double through him. A few examples.
Flop is 962r. Villain has AKs. You'll get one more slice, but that's probably it.
Flop is KJ9. Your set is probably good, but not quite guaranteed. And if you're up against a straight or a better set, you're probably going broke. This is a small but non-zero risk for any flop with a couple Broadway cards.
Flop is Q93 monochrome. This is rare but cruel. A made flush will probably stack you. The more likely prospect of being up against the nut flush draw forces you either to price him out (and not double through him) or price him in ... and maybe lose the hand.
Add it all up, and your chances of winning and getting well paid are more like 8% to 10%. Not 12%. Early in a tournament, I'd say you should view middle pairs about like small pairs. Nice to play cheap, but no reason to commit a lot of money to them, unimproved, especially against resistance.