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Overthinking AA Overthinking AA

07-26-2015 , 09:51 PM
Thought it a pretty good flop to check.

Thought about jamming turn but what is calling?


PokerStars - |1250/2500 Ante 250.00 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 93,712 (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
MP: 32,334 (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 11.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 99)
MP+1: 22,735 (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP+2: 30,056 (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 52,139
BTN: 31,698 (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 25)
SB: 57,939 (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 7.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 90)
BB: 14,276 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: 37,451 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 36)

9 players post ante of 250, SB posts SB 1,250, BB posts BB 2,500

Pre Flop: (pot: 6,000) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5,000, fold, SB calls 3,750, fold

Flop: (14,750, 2 players) 2 5 2
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (14,750, 2 players) 9
SB bets 7,375, Hero calls 7,375

River: (29,500, 2 players) 5
SB bets 14,750, Hero calls 14,750
Overthinking AA Quote
07-26-2015 , 10:44 PM
I'm probably betting most of the time on this flop. You raised from the CO so your perceived range looks pretty wide and your Cbet could even get looked up here with A high. Probably getting it in if he starts raising back at me also. I feel you're missing a lot of value here with AA in the long run taking the line you did.
Overthinking AA Quote
07-26-2015 , 11:11 PM
I don't mind the check back since we have the ace of clubs. We aren't really scared of any turn cards and the small blind's range is not going to hit this flop. If the small blind has a middle pocket pair we do potentially miss the opportunity to get stacks in on the flop if a high card comes. However, if villain has a hand like QJs, KQ etc.. we can let him hit top pair on the turn and get all in. I think I would raise the turn now (goal is to get stacks in) and hope to get value from a 9, pocket pair, lower club.
Overthinking AA Quote
07-27-2015 , 04:55 AM
I;d bet this flop most of the time. If the BB is willing to call you pre flop from the BB, he's already defined himself as a non believer and that philosophy is probably going to hold true on the flop too. I see missed value with no flop bet in this scenario.
Overthinking AA Quote
07-27-2015 , 02:42 PM
Just try to get Stacks in. Checking flop does not accomplish that since spr on turn river is too small. Also you are perceived to cbet most hands here so dont iverthink it.
I would r/c turn as played. Call river obv as playd
Overthinking AA Quote
07-27-2015 , 03:21 PM
I don't really see what we are missing value from by checking vs. letting our opponent catch up and think he is good on the turn. I would assume that villain will shove with 77 or 88+. Therefore, villain is left with 66,55,44,33,22. However, villain might not even call these and there are far less combos of pocket pairs than all the broadway combos that he calls in the small blind. Villain's most likely holding is a broadway combo and by checking back and letting villain hit one of these cards, or perhaps inducing villain to start bluffing with these combos, will give us more value in the long run.
Overthinking AA Quote
07-29-2015 , 02:01 PM
Looks ok once in a while type of line. These are great spots to fire 3 vs the SB range in general though.
Overthinking AA Quote
07-29-2015 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gregz41
Looks ok once in a while type of line. These are great spots to fire 3 vs the SB range in general though.
Small pairs and suited connector stuff?
Overthinking AA Quote
07-30-2015 , 12:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdavis86
Small pairs and suited connector stuff?
more BB than SB.

if you have an aggro image, then bet bet raise jam don't take a backward step.

if you're a confirmed nit that needs a can opener to get value from another confirmed nit, then your line might be OK.
Overthinking AA Quote

      
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