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optimal preflop decision

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07-24-2014 , 06:10 PM

#26

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Quote:

Originally Posted by DecisionMade

The pot odds are irrelevant. If you call, you leave the 3bet happy BB still to act.

You have a point there. But we can still push and pray if we think he's light enough.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DecisionMade

Secondly, you have to commit 10% of your stack.

If it's +EV, it's +EV no matter how big a portion (see 4th point below)

Quote:

Originally Posted by DecisionMade

Thirdly, you'll be out of position.

Position doesn't matter when the flop is a simple matter of all or nothing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DecisionMade

Finally, considering you only hit the flop roughly 1/3 of the time you'll be check-folding to a cbet far too often too make it profitable.

Disagree on not profitable. If he never Cbets when behind it's 375 to win 1,500.
If he Cbets when behind it's now 375 to win about 2,400.
If he shoves when behind it's 375 to win like 4,800.

Quote

07-24-2014 , 06:43 PM

#27

DecisionMade

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 557

Quote:

Originally Posted by P_Nitti

You have a point there. But we can still push and pray if we think he's light enough.

What?

Quote:

If it's +EV, it's +EV no matter how big a portion (see 4th point below)

Show me the math on that.

Quote:

Position doesn't matter when the flop is a simple matter of all or nothing.

Yes it does. We get to see if villain checks or bets if we're in position. A crucial part of poker. If villain checks, we can put in a bet with a high chance of taking it down.

Quote:

Disagree on not profitable. If he never Cbets when behind it's 375 to win 1,500.
If he Cbets when behind it's now 375 to win about 2,400.
If he shoves when behind it's 375 to win like 4,800.

Villain is more than likely to cbet as both of your stacks are such that villain will take it down with a cbet 2/3 of the time (as hero will only play if hero has hit - which is ~1/3 of the time)

Quote

07-25-2014 , 12:06 AM

#28

TellMeMore

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 379

Quote:

Originally Posted by boobsicles

*cough* boobsicles*cough*

Quote

07-25-2014 , 09:26 AM

#29

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Quote:

Originally Posted by DecisionMade

Show me the math on that.

I've already done the math twice, but here it is again:

Assumptions
1. KJs will flop Top Pair or better approx 30% of the time
2. Villian will Cbet close to 100% of time
3a. Ignore possiblitly of flopping top pair and still being behind
3b. Ignore possiblitly of flopping top pair and getting called by worse

Preflop pot = SB + BB + Antes + Raise + Our call (125 + 250 + 270 + 500 + 375 = 1,520)
Continuation Bet = 900

EV = 0.3*(2,420) - 375 = +351

Quote

07-25-2014 , 09:37 AM

#30

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

We'll also flop a flush draw approx 11% of time. Math below

Preflop + Cbet + Our Push = 1,520 + 900 + 3,206 = 5,626
+ opponents call = 5,626 + 2,306 = 7,932

Needed fold pct 5,626X + 7,932(1-X) (0.35) = 3,206

Solve for X means he'd need to fold 15% for push with flush draw to be profitable

So altogether we'll flop a profitable situation 41% of the time

Quote

07-25-2014 , 02:13 PM

#31

nextt03

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 10

Is 3b/folding completely terrible? Making it 1300 we risk 1175 to make 1145. We still get decent fold equity and if CO shoves, does he do it with worse than KJ?

Quote

07-25-2014 , 03:18 PM

#32

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Such an easy shove, against described V. (I´m prob shoving even worse)

Quote

07-25-2014 , 05:20 PM

#33

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Do we think he will raise & fold to our shove at least some of the time?
Or is he a standard aggro clone who thinks "Raise-Folding with 15BB is horrible"?

Last edited by P_Nitti; 07-25-2014 at 05:25 PM.

Quote

07-25-2014 , 10:41 PM

#34

boobsicles

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by P_Nitti

Do we think he will raise & fold to our shove at least some of the time?
Or is he a standard aggro clone who thinks "Raise-Folding with 15BB is horrible"?

uhm I don't think regs think raise/folding 15bb is horrible. infact I do it all the time..

Quote

07-26-2014 , 07:07 PM

#35

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

OK then, using you as a for instance, we can do some pretty easy math.

What would you estimate your CO opening range percentage is with 15BB?
And of that, what would you call a push with?

Then we can figure the EV of shoving and compare with the EV of calling.

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07-27-2014 , 09:12 PM

#36

boobsicles

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,435

I'm jamming 78s+

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07-27-2014 , 10:26 PM

#37

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Not sure to go with that...

I was asking about if YOU are the open raiser. What range to open and what range to call off vs a 3bet shove behind.

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07-27-2014 , 11:33 PM

#38

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

shut the **** up

Quote

07-28-2014 , 12:35 AM

#39

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

It's a legitimate question. What would a "Reg" open from the CO and then fold with a 15BB stack??

Care to add anything useful?

Quote

07-28-2014 , 01:53 AM

#40

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

atc

Quote

07-28-2014 , 12:18 PM

#41

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

atc

This would be a huge leak.

As to the thread, this is a really trivial jam pre flop.

Quote

07-28-2014 , 02:12 PM

#42

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Spent some time noodling around with different villian open and call/fold ranges. The results are that KJs is definitely a +EV push vs a normal cutoff range (used 25%). But is it the MOST EV solution?

Analysis
Villian Opening Range = X (set at 25%)
Villian Call All In Range = Y
KJs equity against Range Y = Z
Our Push Raise A = 3702-125 = 3577
Final Folded Pot B = 4722
Final Called Pot C = 7928

EV = (X-Y)/X * B + (Y/X) * Z * C - A

Example:
Villian Opens 25% and calls 15%
KJs equity vs 15% calling range = 0.42
EV = (25-15)/25 * 4722 + (15/25) * 0.42 * 7928 - 3577 = +310

(Which is slightly less than the previous EV of calling at +351 in post #29)

Quote

07-28-2014 , 03:24 PM

#43

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Right, but you have to be able to realise the equity of calling, which is a different thing entirely.

Quote

07-28-2014 , 03:55 PM

#44

pablito_21

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,872

Also you calculated the EV of calling wrong I think (we don't have 100% equity when we flop a pair)

Quote

07-28-2014 , 04:00 PM

#45

P_Nitti

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 149

Quote:

Originally Posted by pablito_21

Also you calculated the EV of calling wrong I think (we don't have 100% equity when we flop a pair)

Good observation, I cancelled that out with the chance that we flop TP but get called by worse. However, I'll give you the fact that it does make the math of calling less clear cut than shoving.

Quote

07-28-2014 , 04:15 PM

#46

pablito_21

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,872

Ah ok you covered it in #29 my bad

Quote

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