Quote:
Originally Posted by Everyday81
I agree w Kurt in that we don't know what precipitated our lowly position of sitting w 6 bigs...however at this point, my central focus wouldn't include my opponents or position (other than to take note when we will be in the blinds) - or really anything besides determining what is the best possible 2 card combo I will have out of what are my "free" hands. Knowing that I have 2 "free" hands total, we can only fold Q7s here if we think it statistically probable that we will get a better hand on the next hand when UTG (we are SO short that we can't even advocate holding tight through the blinds because if we do and get dealt dog-spit cards, we'll have posted 1.5k in antes and 6k as the BB/SB and would be shoving for 16.5k). With this thought process, Q7s to me is a shove and an oh well when it doesn't win. Regardless of how we got to 6BBs, the fact is we are way short and our goals have changed from winning the tournament to simply surviving another orbit and clawing our way back to having a "playing poker" stack again.
this is wrong in multiple ways.
first of all, the only considerations we have are our equity vs potential calling hands, the frequency that we get called, and the pot odds. being in such an early position, chances of one or more people waking up with a hand are high, and Q7s doesn't have good equity vs the kinds of hands that will call.
second of all, even if this "what are the chances of getting a better hand soon?" logic was valid, you would still be wrong. since Q7s is barely above 50% vs a random hand, we have almost a 75% chance of getting something better in the next two hands. and even if we don't, when we are in the BB we will have better pot odds, and therefore not need as good a hand to get it in, especially if we are up against a wider range from a late position or BvB raise.
this is a very easy fold.