I played a local live weekly tourney with some friends and we were disusing what roi is achievable there...
My live experience isnt too big so i thought id ask here what you guys think?

Heres some info about the tourney it self:
re-entry-no add on
50players-65entries
buy in 60+10
starting stack 15k
re entry first 2hrs
blind level 20 min

The field could not be much softer than this...probably just 5 mediocre regs, and the rest ranged between fish and huge fish.........gamblers, call stations, loose passive, etc.

Bluffing was rarely an option...instead you just needed to valued bet huge on all streets when you had it...if you didnt have it you blind down....
I tried 7x raising to get it HU or 3way but that didnt make any difference at all.
There was one 4way flop i think....rest were 5, 6 and even 7way.
People called big raises with 62s...cold called 4Bets with 67o, etc...


So im wondering what roi is attainable here...
Obv roi should be big due to the week field....but im wondering how much will all the multi-way pots affect the roi....because if youre card dead you basically cant do anything here.

*i busted shortly after the end of the re-entry period so i dont know how much the game changes later...i assume people tighten up as the money gets closer

**some of the gamblers there made hero folds with top pair otr vs the tight players...so just nut peddling isnt gonna bring too much value vs some of them

i heard it plays very turboish on FT...10-15bbs

Your ROI=WOT as in waste of time

These type of low buy in tournaments target very entry level recreational player, so forget all the methods, theory, etc you learned because you can't apply here

Instead of ROI you can just think in terms of hourly since the buyin is so low. Doubt it's going to be much more than like $5-$10.

How did you conclude its 5-10$/hr?

im not asking cause im looking to grind these....just curious as to how much one could make (roi wise)if they were to grind these

i was saying ~ 60%(because of the multi way shenaniganse)....friends were saying100+%

I think 60-100+% ROI is an over estimation. What is the payout structure like? How many paid based on 60 entrants and how much up top?

Furthermore: do you have a (decent sized) sample of similar live MTT types of games with a similar field caliber where you accurately recorded results? Assuming you're going to achieve 60% long term might be a huge mistake. You might be more like 5-10%.

lol

Lol all you want, you're the one showing a severe lack of understanding of EV and ROI expectations. I was trying to get more info to make a more accurate estimate.

Poker players over estimate their ability all the time and that's exactly what you're doing.

You're not going to bink a $5k, $10k, $15k etc score from this tournament. First place is probably around what, $1.5k, $2k? That's only 25-33 buyins IF you manage to be fortunate enough to ship one.

while it is possible 60 and 100+%(i said 60) is an over estimation...thats why im here btw....

...saying that in the game i described the roi is 5-10% is simply lol, you have enough info to know this is ridiculous....i mentioned there were 5 mediocre regs and the rest were fish....i stand by my lol remark

Well the rake is fairly high to begin with around 15%. Add that to the fact that the FT plays pretty shallow which means you have less opportunity to exploit bad players if you make it that deep. The part I was originally asking about is how many players it pays out. If it's paying out 20% for example then the 1st place prize will be heavily affected and the potential achievable ROI is diminished.

The other thing is that you apparently only played this tournament once or a few times. How do you know that 90% of the field are all complete fish? Obviously you played with a bunch of fish but you didn't play with everyone. You admitted that you had a hard time playing against the bad players too, which is also a red flag when it comes to your estimation of 60%+ ROI.

I'm always skeptical when people make such a high estimation of their ability without data to back it up. From all your assumptions so far you're implying that you're most likely the best player in the whole tournament (afterall there are only 5 "decent regs"). Don't get caught up in this self-absorbed sillyness.

i admitted i had a hard time vs fish? when was this?
i know because i came with 3 friends...we were all seated on different tables, across all the tables...

btw ive never played a live tourney that pays top 20%, this one payed top 10% like most do...but i dont see how this is relevant to the possible achievable roi....

"You're not going to bink a $5k, $10k, $15k etc score from this tournament"what are you talking about

anyway...this convo with you is getting pointless and i will not carry on with it

if anyone else has any opinions please share

Ok fair enough, you didn't explicitly say you have a hard time vs the fish, I just thought it was implied because you were emphasizing 6 way pots and people cold calling with junk.

It's unclear whether the game in question is run by a casino or a home-game type of situation. In my experience homegames often like to pay out 15-20% as the majority of the field is recreational and would be pleased with a small cash. ROI has a lot to do with the amount of variance in a given tournament. If the upside is higher (ie larger player pools and larger top 3 prizes, then the potential for high ROI is also higher).

What I meant by this basically is that its only a 60 player tournament. It's not 200,300,500+ players where if you bink it you earn a very high ROI in which you can brick for the next 2 months and still have a solid +ROI to look at.

If everyone is playing sloppy-loose, this may actually be quite a hard game to crush. In multi-way, bloated pots, even thin draws are getting almost decent odds to stick around.

You can punish one sloppy-loose opponent for failing to fold when he should have, but if you've got four of them waiting for the turn, they shield each other to a surprising degree.

It sounds as if your ability to put people on ranges has become quite iffy -- and I feel your pain. But until you can accurately put people on ranges (even crazy ones), you don't have an edge.

It also sounds as if they are making better river reads than you are. You may hate their preflop play, but if they can outwit you at the river, I'm thinking that maybe they are the ones wanting YOU to come back.

^^why this?
how can you compare their play to my play, you know nothing of my river play

You think they want "ME" to come back? why so much hate? just board and trolling?

I don't think anyone is trolling. I feel like I've been making valid points, some of which you choose to ignore. Odd that you create this thread looking for opinions and then you can't handle it when people aren't agreeing with your prediction.

Sorry that things got testy. I'm genuinely trying to be helpful.

It's a joy to play against loose-passive players, because they make a lot of mistakes and they don't charge you much when things do work out for them. But if this game has its share of what you call "gamblers," it's going to take a lot more work to decode them.

I mentioned river play as an area where a sloppy-LAG player can be dangerous. You didn't want to hear about it, so I'll won't return to that subject.

If you're wanting to crush the game, it isn't enough to see all the "mistakes" that people are making preflop. Sounds like there's no way to avoid a multi-player stampede into the flop. In that case, earning 100% or even 5% on this game will require a significant investment in learning more about each player's postflop style than they learn about yours.