I don't play a whole lot of MTT's these days. Can someone please run the numbers on this? Much appreciated

$550 buy-in - 196 entrants
Final table - 10 players remain
Average stack: 196k
Blinds: 6k/12k (40 min levels)


Payouts:
1st - $21,070
2nd - $14,700
3rd - $10,780
4th - $8,330
5th - $5,880
6th - $4,900
7th - $3,920
8th - $2,940
9th - $2,450
10th - $2,205


Hero: 257k
Villain: 138k
Short stack: 57k
Chip leader: maybe $350k?

Haven't included any history here because just really after ICM evaluation. I will say the table is super weak though with only one or 2 good players. I consider myself one of the 2 and have swapped 5% with the other.

We've been 10 handed for well over an hour.
folds to hero in cutoff.
Hero opens to 27k with AJo.
2 snap folds then Villain ships it from the BB. 111k to call

Hero?

puuuuuh, very very close.

you only have 20 Biggies, and the chipleader only has 30...

I don't care to much about the short stack, as the payjump 9-->10 is negligible. But the money on top is huge compared to the min payout.

So if you really think you have an edge I would consider folding. But if you are 10 handed for an hour people tend not to get out of line too much, which would make the call more reasonable. Anyway with the blinds and antes so high, I expect fireworks soon.

Given his stack size I’d assign him the following range {22+,JTs, QJ, KT+, A7+}. So against this range you are a slight favourite. But again taking ICM into the equation makes this more hard of a decision. So I’d say 66% Folding, 33% calling. Consequently, I’d sigh fold here, but open for opinions.

I think history is *very* important here. w/o running the numbers, it is so close between call/fold that knowing more about V matters. In a vacuum, I fold and don't tell anyone.

Seems like a very trivial call, you "only" have 21.5BB and the payment jumps are very flat and boring until the top 4. The big blinds 11 bb reshoving range should be very wide since your cutoff opening range should be pretty wide aswell. Only argument against calling there could be is that BB is a massive scared nit in which case I would fold and use the men in black apparatus on myself.

Here's the math. This is assuming a 1k ante cause you didn't say.

We are calling 111k to win roughly 111K+111k+54k=276k. Getting 2.48 to 1 we need to have 40% equity for it to be a profitable call.

AJ is 46.8% against the following range...

22+,JKs+,A8s+,A9o+

Even if you tighten that down a bit by removing some pairs and Ax hands you still have the correct odds to call based on your equity.

Now that I've given all of the maths I think there is more to talk about given FT ICM and our perception of opponent. There are guys in this spot that wouldn't dare move in with less than AJ/66+ and we need to know what kind of opponent we are dealing with. If we have reads that this opponent would not have a correct shipping range here and is overly tight, we can could find a fold. However, as ChanY says, this is a pretty flight payout structure and this seems like a great spot for us to grab the chip lead and actually compete for the top 3 spots.

Agree w/ @Beachman42, your image and history is important here, like a lot.
Even tho i don´t have a lot of experience playing live mtt´s, people tend to shove reaalllly tight, so i fold.

V should be risking it here with a wide range if you also have a wide (perceived) LP opening range. therefore, if I get any sense of defiance from V whatsoever I'm calling.

Yes, cannot run any math without assigning villain a range. Cannot assign a range without reads.
You didn't specify the ante either.
Posters much smarter than myself are implying that villain should be risking it with a wide range here. But with only 11,5 BB, if I were villain, I wouldn't consider my fold equity to be very high here, unless.... Again, reads are important, but this time reads that villain may have on you. If you have a history of opening a lot of hands, he will assign you a wider range, thus risking it wider. If you have a history of open/folding to small stacks (like somewhere between 9 and 12 BB), he will widen up even more (in that case, my personal shoving range would be even wider than suggested by previous posters). But if you have been rarely opening and not afraid to put your stack or a big chunk of it on the line, then villain will tighten up a lot!

Thanks for the feedback. Villain is a thoughtless MAWG fish who a couple of hands earlier had a decent chip lead and over shoved from UTG+1 with AJ v a UTG short stack shove and got called by AK in middle position and lost 200k. He's definitely not a nit and repeatedly shows the table an Ace EVERY TIME he shoves and doesn't get called. He definitely likes any Ax hand.

My image is tight at the FT but not previously v this villain who thinks I've bluffed him off a number of big hands at other tables even though I pretty much had zero fold equity.

Also yes there is a 1k ante.

Now it's the easiest call ever.

In these spots I want to fold. But then my hands do the right thing and put all my chips out there. I would call with ATs also.

Given your description of villain I would probably extend my calling range to ATo+/A9s/88+

Yeah I don't disagree. So yeah I made a weak fold in the end but I really agonised over it at the time.

Only thing I'd say is this table was super soft and I layed it down because I was sure I'd find better spots. I felt, rightly or wrongly, that the disadvantage of being short far outweighed the advantage of holding a small chip lead at the time. And I definitely wasn't thinking about laddering up.

how did you finish?

I think folding is here a mistake, against villian described he'll more than likely push a raggedy ace, probably an decent pair or broadway cards after your open, and AJ does pretty damn well against all potential hands he'd shove with. And by folding here your table image will be pretty shot and thus more opponents will start taking more shots at you since you've shown them you can fold. But by calling here you let everyone at the table know that you ain't gonna just fold like that and if you win the pot you would gain more fear equity for future pots and even if you lose the hand you'd still have a fighting chance to win just like everyone else. When in doubt, call!

Erghhh....8th

lost a chunk with TT v 34 AIPF then lost a flip for the rest.

On the bright side though I did swap 5% with the guy who shipped it and a further 5% with him in a tourney the day before which he shipped for $45k!

i'm assuming you didn't have the 34. still, nice staking wins

You assume correct