Re: Live final table w/ 2nd pair and double gutter
bet flop, just flat turn.
i think if hes aggro he would jam (or 3b) KQ/AJ/88/TT/maybe AT on your BTN raise, so his value range is something like A8,JT,T8s,Q9s,97s,maybe Q9o.you have about 23% against that range and river will be tough to play even if you hit. just fold the turn as played imo. even if you exclude 97s and t8s from his defending range pre your hand isnt doing too well - has he been defending his BB a lot, even with these stacksizes?
although you mentioned he pressured people with draws, i dont think he leads very small when you checked back flop and 3bets your raise with a flushdraw. i think he would just bet bigger most of the time. and i doubt that he gets that fancy with complete air, once again dont see him baby betting/3betting like this without a value hand.
this turn action is exactly why you should never ever raise with this type of hand in this spot. you might have the best hand sometimes, but prob chase away his air with a raise anyway and you often have outs if behind, but might get put in a tough spot like this. you have both showdown value and equity against better made hands, but both arent premium like TP+NFD would be. tbh both are quite marginal, esp given the fact that a made str8 is already possible.
Last edited by random btn; 05-28-2012 at 05:42 AM.