$300 at Seneca Niagara, 18 left. $36k up top, $1429 right now. V is late 20s, was at my table from 27 down but we haven't really tangled. He's decent but did see him open utg+1, big defends. T83 2 diamonds went c/30k c/r to 75k, V clicks it to 150k then tank folds to the jam saying he wanted to see where he was at.

I just called a 4 bb shove in the big with Q5o in the big and won a few hands prior to get us to 18. Not much reshoving going on besides me.

8k/16k/2k I have 250k, V about 450k.

Open queens in co to 35k, V defends big.

A23 rainbow c/c
Turn A putting 2 diamonds V leads 40k I call.
River offsuit 6 V bets 56k, Hero?

Calling and losing leaves me with about 7 bigs.

Little bigger pre? Open jam?

Thanks for reading.

So you had 173k left, just under 11 BB. V could certainly have Ax, but he could also have any combo of diamonds (KdTd,Qd7d etc...) Being that you have seen him defend previously, I am leaning more toward he had some sort of diamonds, but I think for only 4 BB you have to call here.

If you are right you have just over 25 BB. And I'd say it's 45/55 that he called with Ax.

Just my thoughts.

My preference here would be bigger pre... reason being, with your smallish pre-bet, you're inviting him in with such a wide range that would include 'most' suited cards.. by going bigger, if he calls, i think it would eliminate things like 10-6dd and j-4dd from his holdings... not knowing any of V tendencies makes it more difficult, but if feel i'm going to be calling off 50-80 later in the hand, i'd just as soon put more in before getting confused by what he 'might' have...
all that being said, depending upon my 'feel' for the table and my stack size in relation to all the others, a "jam" is definitely in my arsenal also

You meant PF right ? Had to mean Pre lol

Well IMO I think you shouldve just jammed pre-flop. you have 15bb and it got folded around to you in the CO. jamming here makes feel like youre just trying to steal so it makes it easier to get a call from a wider range of hands that you beat.

By not jamming in that position and doing what you did, you get yourself in this weird spot with an over card on the flop with the BB calling with a huge amount of ranges.

AP i think you just gotta do a call here and hope he has a missed diamond draw.

Pre is fine , probs good from co , would likely shove UTG+2 etc

flop seems ok but probs close whether we should cbet 100% here
turn good,
river is pretty easy call, we can discredit Like a9s A10+ cos he probs rips them pre

i think he is unlikely to have a Ace here because most players dont like to play Ax oop and when the ace dubled is think less less likely to have a ace. you show weakness when you check flop and thats why him bet on the turn. if he had am ace he would bet imo. i would call the bet oTr as played. i think jamm is the best play here vs raise because you show power with this shortstack when you bet and a jamm look like a steal.

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I'd probably play it the same and call river. With AJ+ I would expect BB to jam pre-flop. And he probably won't defend Ax unsuited. So not a ton of A's for villain.

I don't mind jamming pre-flop either. If we were close to the next level timewise, I would definitely jam pre-flop. Also I would take into account my skill level vs others at the table. A tough table and I am jamming, I don't want BTN to call behind. Also, if I had been raising a lot I would jam because people just don't believe I ever have it.

I called both streets and was shown 54off for the flopped wheel. In hindsight I think jamming pre is the most optimal play, as it looks weakest and villains behind weren't that active.

Jamming pre is definitely losing some value vs minraise in a weaker field.

AP, call river

I think you want to jam some hands pre flop, but not QQ. It's fine to have two sizes in this case. Don't beat yourself up if you sometimes make a play and it doesn't work out for you.

I would have played this exactly the same. You are just unlucky he has an A in his hand. He is defending in the BB so he has a wide range. It is like Gregz says. This time he has 1 of the last 2 aces of the deck and it doesn't work out for you. Most other times it will.

Id probably minraise [QQ+][Random Steals]

Folding is reasonable, def fold QdQx. Final 2 tables, he's not valueing worse (77-JJ jams pre fairly often) and defending alot of Ax. We slowplay a ton of Ax on the flop so we're actually fairly low in our range

I agree that jamming pre is losing lots of value in most fields. You want the BB to defend T6dd and flop top pair and you can stack him. I would probably shove 22-TT and then min raise big pairs.

I think call river too. Not enough Ax in his range to fold here.

Yeah tough go here. Ripping pre is an option and it's easy to say after the fact, but I think you played it fine. Definitely calling now

Shove pre
Don't want to cap 15bb shove range

You want to be able to both r/c and r/f with 15xBB, so it doesn't matter that your pushing range is capped. You also aren't pushing junk. Live, people are not expecting you to just push/fold with 15xBB. Why hamstring yourself?

I read this and gregz post with some interest and think some strong arguments can be made either way

Was playing a 300 runner $175 turbo event last night which had numerous late stage decisions around the 15bb mark. Several spots were simply wrong to raise and needed a shove fold approach.

I also can't recall watching any recent live hs mtt replay recently where players had anything other than a push fold strat with 15- bb

My key consideration at the last three tables is getting to the final table. Take every obvious opportunity but work to reduce risk and variance wherever possible.

HSMTT =/ $300 Live MTT

heh
starting second day of local main event with precisely 15BB today
gods potentially mocking