i would like to hear the numbers pls

Wasn't trolling :-/

This limp has made my head explode....

OK so here's my breakdown -

I am assuming villain's range is JJ+ and AK. Maybe there are fewer JJs in his range, but in my experience limps UTG late in tourneys are usually big hands hoping for a short stack to re-raise. On the flop, I give up unless i have trips, 2 pr, flush, straight, or nut flush draw. The probability of each of these is 2%, 1.3%, 0.3% and 10.9% respectively. So 84.7% of the time I am folding the flop.

I am going to assume UTG villain leads for about 3600 most of the time.

Taking each hand on a case by case basis.

If I flop 2 pair, I will assume that villain will fold to a shove JJ-KK and call with AA and AK. This is is 9/27 hands (1 combo of AA, 8 combos of AK call,

As played this is one of the best outcomes you could have hoped for, flop = all you can eat baby

OK so here's my breakdown -

I am assuming villain's range is JJ+ and AK. Maybe there are fewer JJs in his range, but in my experience limps UTG late in tourneys are usually big hands hoping for a short stack to re-raise. On the flop, I give up unless i have trips, 2 pr, flush, straight, or nut flush draw. The probability of each of these is 2%, 1.3%, 0.3% and 10.9% respectively. So 84.7% of the time I am folding the flop.

I am going to assume UTG villain leads for about 3600 most of the time.

Taking each hand on a case by case basis.

If I flop 2 pair, I will assume that villain will fold to a shove JJ-KK and call with AA and AK. This is is 9/27 hands (1 combo of AA, 8 combos of AK call) the rest fold. Equity if called is 63.6% and our expected stack size if called is 63.6% * (9,200 + 2*16,400) = 26712. If villain folds our expected stack size is (9,200 + 3600 + 16,400) = 29,200. Overall in this case our expected stack size is 9/27*26,712 + 18/27*29,200 = 28371.

I continued on a case by case basis

Trip 2's - Freq - 0.65%, Villain calls - 21/33. equity - 96.8%, expected stack size - 40656

Trip As - Freq - 0.65%, Villain calls - 4/22. equity - 20%, expected stack size - 25,418

Flush - Freq - 0.8%, Villain calls - 14/33, equity 98.1%, expected stack - 34291

Straight - Freq - 0.3% villain calls - 21/33, equity - 94.7%, expected stack size 35,928

NFD - Freq - 10.9% villain calls - 22/33, equity 43.4%, expected stack size 21,885.

Fold - Freq 84.7 % stack size - 16,400.

Finally, I took the frequency of each case x the expected stack size from each case and added them up - total 17919.

So after that math, this call cost me 81 chips.

On top of that, there are times when we will get it in with good equity and other villains call us or times the flop gets checked through to the turn and we pick up equity. The sample flops I had did not account for the possibility of a pair + NFD or gutshot + NFD or backdoor outs, etc. There's a ton of factors to consider, but I was surprised that it came a lot closer to even than I expected. Let me know where you think the math and/or assumptions break down.

honestly i think limping on a short stack is under rated..not sure how short we can be in this spot bot its much closer to ev neutral than most ppl in here think

Your assumptions about everything are wrong, in particular your ability to stack V 100% when you hit. Sometimes he lolz at you and folds, sometimes he turns a set, sometimes you hit an Acc flop and valuetown yourself into thinking you're good 75% of the time against his range and shove your remaining stack into the set of 6s he just flopped.

Entire table sounds awful tbh.

Why would I not want to get it in on an Acc flop? Even if flop is AJ3cc and villain only stacks off with AA, JJ, and AK I am still 38% against that range getting almost exactly the right price.

In my analysis, I never assumed villain is always stacking off. I estimated villain folding at least 33% of the time in each case. However, villain folding is a great outcome. We pick up a substantial pot with no risk of busting.

Just get it in on the flop. You are almost exactly at 50% equity given your estimate of his pre-flop limp range. You can't ask for a better flop.

What I disagree about in your analysis is it doesn't discuss when you flop a single A. You are an ~85% favorite if no K/Q also appears and a 67%/54% favorite if one does (depending on whether you include JJ or not). You clearly have to get it in, in that case but can expect to bust if you are behind. And you can expect to win just the pot if ahead. But that is only if there are no more callers. Your limp may invite another better AXs in. Or another guy with a PP who will bust you if he hits but not pay you off when you hit.

Also, your limping range for villain is possibly way off. He may be setting you up for a future push. He can have AXs which would be fairly disasterous if you hit an A. Or he can have any PP or suited connector which may give him a reason to call here while having significant equity.

If I flop a single A i plan to give up. I think there's too much risk I'm getting it in dominated by either villain or someone behind.

I think in early rounds UTG limping can be pretty wide. In my experience in live tournaments, UTG limping once the antes kick in is usually a very big hand. It's usually guys either worried that they won't get any action if they raise UTG or hoping a short stack will shove.

Clubber you make no sense. You say he will bluff whiffed AK but in your OP you say him betting likely takes AK out of his range. Also ppl limp medium strength crap late in tourneys all the time (QJs, 44, A2cc) This limp is AWFUL. Super easy fold preflop. Your numbers ignore getting raised pre and overstate how often we get paid and understated how often we limp then fold the best hand (ie folding A89 when utg bets his JT)

FOLD PRE-FLOP HAHHAHAHAHHAHA